WITH A NICE BREAK for the players before the third leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs (or to avoid NFL opening weekend) the PGA Tour is dark this week for the first time in 2011. What better time than now to look back at the past eight months and assess who the current front runners for Player of the Year are.
First, the criteria.
Consistency. As far as naming a player of the year, I mean opinion it's imperative to very few peaks and valleys along the way. (He wouldn't be a contender for this, but for an example of what I mean look at Tommy Gainey -- 15/29 cuts made, 4 top 5s, 6 tops 10s, 9 top 25s.)
Wins. This is pretty self explanatory. It's hard to be a threat to be player of the year if you didn't win at least once.
Contended in majors. This could be a major X-factor in the entire debate. If someone won a major did they have a better year than someone who was a factor in several. Tough question to answer.
1. Webb Simpson. He obviously has the wins part down with two in the last three tournaments, but easily could have had a third if not for a penalty he called on himself during the final round of the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. (Assuming everything else was equal and he did win in New Orleans he would currently lead the money list by almost $800K over 2nd place Donald and more than $1-million over 3rd place Watney.) As far as consistency goes, he's made the cut in 19 of 22 events and finished in the top 25 17 times. He leads the Tour in rounds in the 60s (49), par five performance (a combined -129 on par fives) and is third in scoring average (69.30). It's somewhat incredible when you look at some of his other numbers. Based on the Tour's core statistics -- driving distance, fairways, greens in regulation, putting, sand saves -- his best ranking is 17th in GIR. But even so, he's first in the all around ranking. The only real flaw on his season resume is his lack of contention in majors, but he made the cut in two of the three he played (US, British) and posted respectable finishes with a T14 and a T16. From June onward, other than a missed cut at the PGA Championship, his worst finish is that T16 at the British. At the end of last year, he was ranked 209th in the world; he's now ranked 14th.
2. Luke Donald. The current world number one was not able to win his first major championship this year, but his consistency is unrivaled. In 16 events, he missed only two cuts, has 6 top 5s, 11 top 10s and 13 top 25s (His two top25s that were not top10s were T18 and T17s). His only PGA Tour win this season was a downright dominant performance at the WGC - Accenture Match Play Championship, where he never even had to play the 18th hole and only playing the 17th once. He never trailed in any of his six matches and if you added up all the holes where there was a winner, he would be ahead 41-15. He was a factor in two of the four majors with a T4 at the Masters -- where a double bogey at the par-three 12th really sunk his chances -- and a T8 at the PGA Championship.
3. Charl Schwartzel. Has solid representation across all three categories. Of course, he won the Masters in thrilling fashion, closing his final round with four straight birdies, but he was also one of only 11 players to make the cut in all four majors. If that's not enough, he actually had the low aggregate in those events, finishing a combined four-under par -- which was 10 shots better than his next closest pursuers, Steve Stricker and Sergio Garcia -- and none of his results were worse than a T16. If there is a blemish on his candidacy it's that his victory at Augusta was his only win and he only has three top 10s. That number can be a little misleading though, considering he's been in the top25 in 10 of 14 starts and hasn't missed a cut. He also only has two results outside of the top 30.
4. Keegan Bradley. Seemingly became the poster boy for the new era of golf with his thrilling victory at the PGA Championship. Both of his wins -- the PGA Championship and the HP Byron Nelson Championship -- came in sudden death playoffs and while his two victories are certainly impressive -- he is just the third player to win a major championship in his first appearance -- he doesn't quite have the same consistency that his counterparts do. In addition to his wins, he had two other top 10s and six more top 25s.
5. Nick Watney. With as good of a season as he had, it's hard to imagine that it could have been even better. The former Fresno State Bulldog opened the year with five straight top-10s -- including a win the at the WGC - Cadillac Championship -- and went into the Masters as one of the favorites, having turned in no result worse than a T13. He finished a disappointing 46th that week, by far his worst result at Augusta National in four appearances. It didn't put a damper on his season though, as he ended up with two wins (adding the AT&T National in July), 9 top 10s and 14 top 25s in 16/19 made cuts. On the year, he's fourth in scoring average, eighth in strokes gained putting and third on the money list. While he wasn't necessarily at his best in the majors, he did end up with a T10 at the PGA Championship. Bonus marks for finish T4 at the Players, the PGA Tour's marquee non-major.
Others that could get into the mix with a strong finish to the playoffs.
Adam Scott. Won the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational and posted strong major results (T2, Cut, T25, 7).
Dustin Johnson. Won the Barclays, 5 of 6 top10s were top5s and also solid in the majors (T38, T23, T2, Cut.
Steve Stricker. Two wins (Memorial and John Deere Classic), made all 17 cuts, 14/17 top 25, no results worse than T42, was steady in majors (T11, T19, T12, T12).
Gary Woodland. One win, one playoff loss, 18/22 cuts made, 12 top25s. Was at least Top 30 in all four majors (T24, T23, T30, T12).
K.J. Choi. Won The Players and was a threat in the Masters, finishing T8. Had 6 top 10s and 8 top 25s.
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
Thursday, September 1, 2011
Deutsche Bank picks
Rickie Fowler, 40-1. He produced a T41 here last year, which is nothing to write home about, but he seems like a good fit for the required scoring. Not only is he fourth on Tour in birdie average (4.24) but he's third in eagles. And while it may be a bit of a statistical anomoly, of the 56 eagles carded by players that have finished in the top 10 during the life of this tournament -- first played in 2003 -- 17.8 per cent (10) have come from those that have finished first.
Camilo Villegas, 50-1. I tweeted this earlier this week, but Villegas is coming off his first back-to-back top-10s since the beginning of last season when he went 3, T8 and then won the Honda Classic. He's finished T61 here the last two years, but in the first two years this was a playoff event he was T3 and T9. He's also shot six straight rounds in the 60s -- with his highest score being a pair of 68s -- and in both of those tournaments he hit 83.3 per cent of his Green in regulation.
Bill Haas, 70-1. In five appearances here, he's made all five cuts and has four top-22 finishes. He's lost in playoffs twice this year and is looking to secure a spot on the U.S. President's Cup team, where his dad will be an assistant captain.
John Senden, 80-1.
Longshot: Kyle Stanley, 125-1.
Camilo Villegas, 50-1. I tweeted this earlier this week, but Villegas is coming off his first back-to-back top-10s since the beginning of last season when he went 3, T8 and then won the Honda Classic. He's finished T61 here the last two years, but in the first two years this was a playoff event he was T3 and T9. He's also shot six straight rounds in the 60s -- with his highest score being a pair of 68s -- and in both of those tournaments he hit 83.3 per cent of his Green in regulation.
Bill Haas, 70-1. In five appearances here, he's made all five cuts and has four top-22 finishes. He's lost in playoffs twice this year and is looking to secure a spot on the U.S. President's Cup team, where his dad will be an assistant captain.
John Senden, 80-1.
Longshot: Kyle Stanley, 125-1.
Saturday, August 27, 2011
The resilience of Dustin Johnson
AFTER BUILDING A three-shot lead heading into the final round of last year's U.S. Open at Pebble Beach Dustin Johnson was poised to win his first -- and what many presumed to be the first of many -- major championship.
His caddie at the time, Bobby Brown, told anyone that would listen that his man was "a flatliner" and that the severity of the moment wouldn't get to him.
A triple-bogey at the second, followed up by a double at the third to open his final round and Johnson was on his way to a round of 82 and a T8.
So it is fair to say that at times -- particularly under pressure -- he has a propensity for loose shots.
Exhibit A - the aforementioned tee shot at 2 at Pebble last year.
Exhibit B - tee shot on 18 at Whistling Straits in last year's PGA Championship.
Exhibit C - second shot on 14 at Royal St. Georges in this year's Open Championship.
But just when we think his sublime talents may be eclipsed by the scar tissue that we assume must be there, he rallies.
The obvious first step of that was the fact that after what happened to him at Pebble he was in contention at the PGA.
Then, at the Ryder Cup, after starting out with three losses -- twice with Mickelson and once with Furyk -- he gets matched up with the man that won the PGA, Martin Kaymer, in Sunday singles and summarily beats him 6&4.
And while it was nearly a year since his last win -- last year's third leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the BMW Championship -- he puts himself right in the thick of the FedEx Cup race again this year with a win at the Barclays.
Yes, it was a rain shortened event.
Yes, it was the second such win of his career to have that distinction.
And no, it was not a major championship.
But at 27 years of age, Johnson has 5 PGA Tour titles -- that's more than any other card-carrying PGA Tour player in his 20s.
(In case you were wondering, Sean O'Hair, 29, is second with four.)
In fact, only 23 active PGA Tour members have more wins than him and a few of them -- David Duval, Jose Maria Olazabal, Lee Janzen, Mike Weir and Steve Elkington, Rocco Mediate -- are more on the downside of their careers.
Further, he joins Tiger Woods as the only players to win at least once in each of their first four seasons on the Tour.
On top of that he has four top 10s and six top 25s in the last 9 major championships.
So while some may look at the ones that got away, Johnson has the type of talent that can erase those in a hurry.
His caddie at the time, Bobby Brown, told anyone that would listen that his man was "a flatliner" and that the severity of the moment wouldn't get to him.
A triple-bogey at the second, followed up by a double at the third to open his final round and Johnson was on his way to a round of 82 and a T8.
So it is fair to say that at times -- particularly under pressure -- he has a propensity for loose shots.
Exhibit A - the aforementioned tee shot at 2 at Pebble last year.
Exhibit B - tee shot on 18 at Whistling Straits in last year's PGA Championship.
Exhibit C - second shot on 14 at Royal St. Georges in this year's Open Championship.
But just when we think his sublime talents may be eclipsed by the scar tissue that we assume must be there, he rallies.
The obvious first step of that was the fact that after what happened to him at Pebble he was in contention at the PGA.
Then, at the Ryder Cup, after starting out with three losses -- twice with Mickelson and once with Furyk -- he gets matched up with the man that won the PGA, Martin Kaymer, in Sunday singles and summarily beats him 6&4.
And while it was nearly a year since his last win -- last year's third leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the BMW Championship -- he puts himself right in the thick of the FedEx Cup race again this year with a win at the Barclays.
Yes, it was a rain shortened event.
Yes, it was the second such win of his career to have that distinction.
And no, it was not a major championship.
But at 27 years of age, Johnson has 5 PGA Tour titles -- that's more than any other card-carrying PGA Tour player in his 20s.
(In case you were wondering, Sean O'Hair, 29, is second with four.)
In fact, only 23 active PGA Tour members have more wins than him and a few of them -- David Duval, Jose Maria Olazabal, Lee Janzen, Mike Weir and Steve Elkington, Rocco Mediate -- are more on the downside of their careers.
Further, he joins Tiger Woods as the only players to win at least once in each of their first four seasons on the Tour.
On top of that he has four top 10s and six top 25s in the last 9 major championships.
So while some may look at the ones that got away, Johnson has the type of talent that can erase those in a hurry.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
PGA Championship picks
Phil Mickelson 25-1. I'm not sure why so many people are down on Mickelson right now. His scoring average this year is better than all but one of his last five seasons and he's on a pace comparable to his last couple. He also had his best ever finish at the Open championship with a T2. During his career he has one win at the PGA, 8 top 10s and 12 top 25s. When David Toms won here at the Atlanta Athletic Club in 01, he was the runner-up and even pulled level with Toms a couple of times during the final round. Add it up and at 25-1 he's an absolute steal.
Jason Day 28-1. In the last calendar year, take the marquee events on the PGA Tour -- the majors, the WGCs, The Players and the playoffs. Then look at Day's results in those tournaments: T10, T2, 2, T30, T9, T45, T4, T6, T5, T2, T54, T17.
Webb Simpson 80-1. Call him a Matt Kuchar lite. In 18 events this year, Simpson has made the cut in 16 of them and finished outside the top 25 only two other times --T46 in his first start in Hawaii and T69 at the Players. He has 6 top 10s, a pair of runner-up finishes and more rounds in the 60s on Tour this year than anyone. He also posted a T14 at the U.S. Open a T16 at the British Open -- his first two major appearances. He's also trending up, posting nothing worse than that T16 in the last two months.
Y.E. Yang 80-1. There are players that just seem to do well in majors and Yang -- at least in 2011 -- is shaping up as one of them. His worst finish in a major this year was T20 at the Masters.
Francesco Molinari 100-1. In two previous PGA Championship appearances, the younger of the Flying Molinari brothers has posted a T33 and a T10. He's 3rd on the European Tour in driving accuracy (73.6) and 15th in Greens in regulation (74). In his victory at last year's WGC-HSBC champions, he was a ball-striking machine hitting 76.8 per cent of his fairways and 65.3 per cent of GIR. That produced just an average 25 putts per round and only 4 birdies the entire week and is just the type of formula he will need this week. He's also coming off a T15 at last week's WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, his best result since a T8 at the Italian Open in June.
Worth a long shot: Scott Verplank 250-1. His best result in any major championship is a T7 and he's accomplished it three times but the first was the '01 PGA at Atlanta Athletic Club. He's had a steady but not spectacular season, highlighted by a runner-up finish to Mickelson in Houston and is coming off a T14 at the Greenbrier.
Jason Day 28-1. In the last calendar year, take the marquee events on the PGA Tour -- the majors, the WGCs, The Players and the playoffs. Then look at Day's results in those tournaments: T10, T2, 2, T30, T9, T45, T4, T6, T5, T2, T54, T17.
Webb Simpson 80-1. Call him a Matt Kuchar lite. In 18 events this year, Simpson has made the cut in 16 of them and finished outside the top 25 only two other times --T46 in his first start in Hawaii and T69 at the Players. He has 6 top 10s, a pair of runner-up finishes and more rounds in the 60s on Tour this year than anyone. He also posted a T14 at the U.S. Open a T16 at the British Open -- his first two major appearances. He's also trending up, posting nothing worse than that T16 in the last two months.
Y.E. Yang 80-1. There are players that just seem to do well in majors and Yang -- at least in 2011 -- is shaping up as one of them. His worst finish in a major this year was T20 at the Masters.
Francesco Molinari 100-1. In two previous PGA Championship appearances, the younger of the Flying Molinari brothers has posted a T33 and a T10. He's 3rd on the European Tour in driving accuracy (73.6) and 15th in Greens in regulation (74). In his victory at last year's WGC-HSBC champions, he was a ball-striking machine hitting 76.8 per cent of his fairways and 65.3 per cent of GIR. That produced just an average 25 putts per round and only 4 birdies the entire week and is just the type of formula he will need this week. He's also coming off a T15 at last week's WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, his best result since a T8 at the Italian Open in June.
Worth a long shot: Scott Verplank 250-1. His best result in any major championship is a T7 and he's accomplished it three times but the first was the '01 PGA at Atlanta Athletic Club. He's had a steady but not spectacular season, highlighted by a runner-up finish to Mickelson in Houston and is coming off a T14 at the Greenbrier.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
RBC Canadian Open picks
Ben Crane 66-1. Yes, it's been just about three months since Crane's last top 10 this year at The Heritage (T6), but he's 16th on Tour in driving accuracy and with the rough apparently quite juicy around Shaughnessy this week, that could be a pivotal trait. And keeping in mind that performance, the green sizes at Shaughnessy will be reminiscent of Harbour Town Golf Links where in his last five appearances Crane has posted: T12, T23, T29, T26, T6. There's also the matter of the T2 he turned in the last time the Open came here in 2005, where he was one of only 10 players at level par or better.
Ryan Moore 28-1. He's missed only one cut in 15 events this year (US Open) and has three top 10s and 6 top 25s in that span. He's coming off a solid but not spectacular three-tournament stretch where he finished T2 at the AT&T National and T28 at the Open Championship, where he one-under par rounds to bookend his week. He shared second with Crane here in 2005 and the Tacoma, WA native should have plenty of local support this week.
Paul Casey 50-1. Since opening season on European Tour with a top-20 and then a win, Casey has struggled this year, with just 3 more top 25s and no more top 10s. But that's a lot of value for a guy who was once the third ranked player in the world and in the last six WGC events has finished 2, T6, T22, T6, T17, T18.
Brian Gay 40-1. Again there is the Harbour Town connection for a pick. In 2009, Gay obliterated the field at the Heritage by 10 shots, winning with a record 20-under score. He's second on Tour this year in driving accuracy, finding the fairway 73.79 per cent of the time.
Tom Pernice Jr. 100-1. He's on form this season with 12/12 cuts made on the Champions Tour, five top-10s and 10 top-25s. On top of that he's made the cut in three of four PGA Tour events, including a T2 at the Viking Classic last week. He finished T14 the last time the Open came to Shaughnessy.
Ryan Moore 28-1. He's missed only one cut in 15 events this year (US Open) and has three top 10s and 6 top 25s in that span. He's coming off a solid but not spectacular three-tournament stretch where he finished T2 at the AT&T National and T28 at the Open Championship, where he one-under par rounds to bookend his week. He shared second with Crane here in 2005 and the Tacoma, WA native should have plenty of local support this week.
Paul Casey 50-1. Since opening season on European Tour with a top-20 and then a win, Casey has struggled this year, with just 3 more top 25s and no more top 10s. But that's a lot of value for a guy who was once the third ranked player in the world and in the last six WGC events has finished 2, T6, T22, T6, T17, T18.
Brian Gay 40-1. Again there is the Harbour Town connection for a pick. In 2009, Gay obliterated the field at the Heritage by 10 shots, winning with a record 20-under score. He's second on Tour this year in driving accuracy, finding the fairway 73.79 per cent of the time.
Tom Pernice Jr. 100-1. He's on form this season with 12/12 cuts made on the Champions Tour, five top-10s and 10 top-25s. On top of that he's made the cut in three of four PGA Tour events, including a T2 at the Viking Classic last week. He finished T14 the last time the Open came to Shaughnessy.
Monday, June 20, 2011
Does golf need Rory McIlroy to be the next Tiger? Not quite
RORY McILROY IS a pretty exceptional golfer, even by the standards of the most exceptional golfers in the world. So when he dominated the field at the U.S. Open this past weekend by eight shots -- the largest margin of victory in a major since Tiger Woods lapped the field by 15 strokes at the 2000 U.S. Open -- it led many pundits and casual fans alike to draw a straight line from McIlroy to, well, Woods.
Search "McIlroy" and "Tiger" on Twitter and you'll get a robust and varied selection of opinions on the topic.
I understand the concept. As an individual sport, the prevailing wisdom is that golf needs at least one transcendent figure to rule over the sport, while simultaneously pushing it forward.
(Think Federer or Nadal in tennis currently.)
From a playing perspective, McIlroy has those credentials. For starters he has just about the most aesthetically pleasing golf swing -- maybe ever.
Then you look at his performance in the last four major championships and his ability becomes even more clear:
But maybe the real issue here is that it's possible that the golf world doesn't need another Tiger; they need a Rory.
Yes, television audiences -- particularly in the United States -- crave the name-brand recognition that comes from a player who is at top of mind when discussing potential victors at any and all tournaments.
The era's of golf have also been defined by the titanic players and personalities that dominated them.
Before Tiger there was Norman; before Norman there was Ballesteros; before Ballesteros there was Watson; before Watson there was Nicklaus; before Nicklaus there was Palmer; before Palmer there was Hogan and Nelson; and before that there was Jones and Hagen
The point is each player carved their own identity while also helping to shape the landscape of golf. And without some of them, maybe we wouldn't have golf on TV every week; or have non-European players regularly travel over seas every July to play the world's oldest golf tournament; or think about the concept of a golf world tour.
So maybe golf does need Rory to be a star, but they need him to do it in his way.
The dawn of a new day in golf is upon us. The game will return to the Olympics in five short years. The talent pool of high level competitive golfers may still be deepest on American soil, but that won't be much of a factor in a field of 60 at the Olympics.
Golf needs a star that wants to win every week and even if they end up taking it on the chin, they still answer questions like they played well.
Golf needs a star that shows emotion in ways other than anger and remorse and still smiles if things aren't going their way.
Golf needs a star that isn't afraid to let the public see what he's really like. One that is active enough on Twitter to know what #alicebucketlist is.
Golf could still use a Tiger, but it really needs a Rory.
Search "McIlroy" and "Tiger" on Twitter and you'll get a robust and varied selection of opinions on the topic.
- -Athlete of the Month: Rory Mcilroy >> will replace Tiger Woods as the face of golf
- -Rory McILROY is going to be better than Tiger.
- -Rory McIlroy dominated the US open.....though I think people should slow down with the Tiger Woods comparisons
- -Really? Rory McIlroy wins ONE major and all of a sudden he's the next Tiger Woods? Please. ESPN should be embarrassed. http://es.pn/kuxcD9
I understand the concept. As an individual sport, the prevailing wisdom is that golf needs at least one transcendent figure to rule over the sport, while simultaneously pushing it forward.
(Think Federer or Nadal in tennis currently.)
From a playing perspective, McIlroy has those credentials. For starters he has just about the most aesthetically pleasing golf swing -- maybe ever.
Then you look at his performance in the last four major championships and his ability becomes even more clear:
- His worst finish -- a tie for 15th at The Masters earlier this year -- came after he led for the first three rounds and unraveled on a nightmarish in-ward nine
- He's shot under-par rounds in 13 of the 16
- He tied the lowest ever round in a major championship with his 63 in the first round of the Open Championship at St. Andrews last year
- And he's had at least a share of the lead in three of the four, and it would have been all four if he could cash-in a birdie on the 72nd hole at Whistling Straits last August
When Ernie Els won the U.S. Open at the very same Congressional CC in 1997 -- the same year as Woods' major break through at The Masters -- he cashed a cheque for $465,000.It's pretty unlikely McIlroy can have the kind of dramatic effect on the size of the purses, even if he went out and won the next three majors.
When Woods won it in walkaway fashion at Pebble Beach in 2000, he banked $800,000. That's a 72 per cent increase in prize money in three years.
For his victory yesterday, McIlroy earned $1.35-million -- or in other words, a 40 per cent increase over Woods' total in 2000 and a 196 per cent increase over Els' winnings.
But maybe the real issue here is that it's possible that the golf world doesn't need another Tiger; they need a Rory.
Yes, television audiences -- particularly in the United States -- crave the name-brand recognition that comes from a player who is at top of mind when discussing potential victors at any and all tournaments.
The era's of golf have also been defined by the titanic players and personalities that dominated them.
Before Tiger there was Norman; before Norman there was Ballesteros; before Ballesteros there was Watson; before Watson there was Nicklaus; before Nicklaus there was Palmer; before Palmer there was Hogan and Nelson; and before that there was Jones and Hagen
The point is each player carved their own identity while also helping to shape the landscape of golf. And without some of them, maybe we wouldn't have golf on TV every week; or have non-European players regularly travel over seas every July to play the world's oldest golf tournament; or think about the concept of a golf world tour.
So maybe golf does need Rory to be a star, but they need him to do it in his way.
The dawn of a new day in golf is upon us. The game will return to the Olympics in five short years. The talent pool of high level competitive golfers may still be deepest on American soil, but that won't be much of a factor in a field of 60 at the Olympics.
Golf needs a star that wants to win every week and even if they end up taking it on the chin, they still answer questions like they played well.
Golf needs a star that shows emotion in ways other than anger and remorse and still smiles if things aren't going their way.
Golf needs a star that isn't afraid to let the public see what he's really like. One that is active enough on Twitter to know what #alicebucketlist is.
Golf could still use a Tiger, but it really needs a Rory.
Monday, April 18, 2011
Monday bites: Valero Texas Open
On the PGA Tour you're considered a rookie when it's your first full year with exemptions. So even if you've played in events previously, you're still considered to be in your first year. With all that said, Brendan Steele really is a rookie on the PGA Tour as prior to this year, he had not tee'd it up in a PGA event (for context, Matteo Manaserro is a decade younger and has already played in six PGA Tour sanctioned events and won twice on the European Tour). And after recording pars on his last 11 holes he's also a winner on the PGA Tour, winning the Valero Texas Open by one stroke over Kevin Chappell. Prior to this week, his best finish on Tour was a T17 at the Farmers Insurance Open. And in that tournament his end result wasn't nearly as notable as what he had to say about his final round playing partner, Tiger Woods.
From being notable for what you said, to being notable for how you played -- not bad. On top of all that, he gets a two year exemption and an invitation to next year's Masters.
Shots of the week
"I don't think he gave it everything today," Steele told SI. "Once it started going in the wrong direction, I don’t think it had his full attention."
From being notable for what you said, to being notable for how you played -- not bad. On top of all that, he gets a two year exemption and an invitation to next year's Masters.
Shots of the week
Friday, April 15, 2011
Friday Fourball: April 15
After a brief absence due to some deadlines and overall business, we're back.
Schwartzel is a fitting champion. The morning after the completion of The Masters the general consensus of the mainstream sports media seemed to be: Charl Who? But those who have been paying attention knew who he was. Sure, his birdies on the final four holes to win the tournament certainly couldn't have been predicted, but that the signs that he was on the verge of a breakthrough were certainly there. If you go back to the beginning of 2010 and look at his results in the major championships and World Golf Championships events they are thus (in chronological order): T9, 2, T30, T16, T14, T58, T16, T17, T24, win.
There's also no reason to think that he'll slow down much after this. His early season tally is pretty impressive: two wins, four more top-10s, three more top-25s and no missed cuts in 11 events on the PGA and European Tours combined.
South Africa to host WGC event in 2012? Speaking of South Africa, there was the confirmed then not-so-confirmed news this week that the country will host a new World Golf Championships event starting in 2012. I love the idea of having another WGC event and especially having one somewhere other than the United States. I've said it before and I'll say it again, while there are numerous quality golf courses in the US, you can't really call them "golf's global summit" if there isn't a true global spreading of the events. The fact that there could be a $10-million purse and the event will try to raise awareness and funds of the AIDS epidemic in Africa is even better.
The only issue now is keeping the PGA Tour happy and finding a date. The rhetoric of Sunshine Tour commissioner Gareth Tindall that if placed on the same weekend as Tiger Woods' Chevron Challenge, Woods would need to move his tournament may not have been the best approach to take with the player that is still very much the key to golf TV ratings success.
McIlroy will bounce back. He spent much of the first nine on speed wobble mode and was somehow able to keep it together. But when Rory McIlroy's tee shot on the 10th hole went left of left and he ended up with a triple bogey seven, the wheels came off completely and his opportunity to contend was dashed. There is a reason that some -- no less than Jack Nicklaus, in fact -- preferred to have a fade ball-flight rather than a draw. Under pressure, the line between a draw and a hook becomes blurred and you needn't look any further than McIlroy's tee shots at 10 and 13 for evidence. Add to that his woes with the putter -- pulling many short putts to the left -- and it's pretty easy to say how it fell apart so dramatically.
With all that said, McIlroy will contend in majors again very shortly. First of all, his swing is the envy of just about anyone who's every picked up a club. At maybe 160-pounds soaking wet he nearly led the field in driving distance (Alvaro Quiros, who may be the longest hitter on the PGA or European Tours edged him out with a 303.38 to 303.12 yards pre drive average) while hitting 10 of 14 fairways each day and finishing third in greens in regulation, despite his struggles. Second of all, his demeanor is what we expect from our champions. It's entirely possible that McIlroy won more fans with his post-round interview with Peter Kostis than he would have if he won the tournament. Add to that his comments after his second round in Malaysia that while he was disappointed, he's confident he'll have more chances to win majors and this could be the start of something special between the Northern Irishman and the golfing public.
UPDATE: McIlroy holds a two-shot lead with 27 holes still to play on Sunday in the weather-delayed Malaysian Open.
Making the big number in style. I'm not sure what part surprises me more -- the fact that after already having played about eight shots, noted slow player Kevin Na took precious little time in eventually chopping his ball out of the woods; or that the PGA Tour posted the entire ordeal to their YouTube account. Either way the 16 he recorded at the par four ninth was certainly something to behold and puts Na into the record books for the highest ever score recorded on a par four on the PGA Tour. (It also inspired this list from the fine folks at Golf.)
Give him full credit though. Not only was Na wearing a microphone for the event -- and nary a questionable word got to air during the entire ordeal -- but you could see he was able to laugh it off, he answered questions about it after the round and even reviewed the tape himself to clarify his score.
"I wanted to know exactly what I made. Nobody was sure and to know exactly what I made, I'm the only one that's going to be able know that was a whiff, that's what I did there.So, you know, I'm glad I went in there and checked it and found out it was a 16. I hate to know I signed for a 15 and think back later and actually add it up, it was 16."
Schwartzel is a fitting champion. The morning after the completion of The Masters the general consensus of the mainstream sports media seemed to be: Charl Who? But those who have been paying attention knew who he was. Sure, his birdies on the final four holes to win the tournament certainly couldn't have been predicted, but that the signs that he was on the verge of a breakthrough were certainly there. If you go back to the beginning of 2010 and look at his results in the major championships and World Golf Championships events they are thus (in chronological order): T9, 2, T30, T16, T14, T58, T16, T17, T24, win.
There's also no reason to think that he'll slow down much after this. His early season tally is pretty impressive: two wins, four more top-10s, three more top-25s and no missed cuts in 11 events on the PGA and European Tours combined.
South Africa to host WGC event in 2012? Speaking of South Africa, there was the confirmed then not-so-confirmed news this week that the country will host a new World Golf Championships event starting in 2012. I love the idea of having another WGC event and especially having one somewhere other than the United States. I've said it before and I'll say it again, while there are numerous quality golf courses in the US, you can't really call them "golf's global summit" if there isn't a true global spreading of the events. The fact that there could be a $10-million purse and the event will try to raise awareness and funds of the AIDS epidemic in Africa is even better.
The only issue now is keeping the PGA Tour happy and finding a date. The rhetoric of Sunshine Tour commissioner Gareth Tindall that if placed on the same weekend as Tiger Woods' Chevron Challenge, Woods would need to move his tournament may not have been the best approach to take with the player that is still very much the key to golf TV ratings success.
McIlroy will bounce back. He spent much of the first nine on speed wobble mode and was somehow able to keep it together. But when Rory McIlroy's tee shot on the 10th hole went left of left and he ended up with a triple bogey seven, the wheels came off completely and his opportunity to contend was dashed. There is a reason that some -- no less than Jack Nicklaus, in fact -- preferred to have a fade ball-flight rather than a draw. Under pressure, the line between a draw and a hook becomes blurred and you needn't look any further than McIlroy's tee shots at 10 and 13 for evidence. Add to that his woes with the putter -- pulling many short putts to the left -- and it's pretty easy to say how it fell apart so dramatically.
With all that said, McIlroy will contend in majors again very shortly. First of all, his swing is the envy of just about anyone who's every picked up a club. At maybe 160-pounds soaking wet he nearly led the field in driving distance (Alvaro Quiros, who may be the longest hitter on the PGA or European Tours edged him out with a 303.38 to 303.12 yards pre drive average) while hitting 10 of 14 fairways each day and finishing third in greens in regulation, despite his struggles. Second of all, his demeanor is what we expect from our champions. It's entirely possible that McIlroy won more fans with his post-round interview with Peter Kostis than he would have if he won the tournament. Add to that his comments after his second round in Malaysia that while he was disappointed, he's confident he'll have more chances to win majors and this could be the start of something special between the Northern Irishman and the golfing public.
UPDATE: McIlroy holds a two-shot lead with 27 holes still to play on Sunday in the weather-delayed Malaysian Open.
Making the big number in style. I'm not sure what part surprises me more -- the fact that after already having played about eight shots, noted slow player Kevin Na took precious little time in eventually chopping his ball out of the woods; or that the PGA Tour posted the entire ordeal to their YouTube account. Either way the 16 he recorded at the par four ninth was certainly something to behold and puts Na into the record books for the highest ever score recorded on a par four on the PGA Tour. (It also inspired this list from the fine folks at Golf.)
Give him full credit though. Not only was Na wearing a microphone for the event -- and nary a questionable word got to air during the entire ordeal -- but you could see he was able to laugh it off, he answered questions about it after the round and even reviewed the tape himself to clarify his score.
"I wanted to know exactly what I made. Nobody was sure and to know exactly what I made, I'm the only one that's going to be able know that was a whiff, that's what I did there.So, you know, I'm glad I went in there and checked it and found out it was a 16. I hate to know I signed for a 15 and think back later and actually add it up, it was 16."
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
The Masters preview and picks
Course vitals
Yardage: 7,435
Par: 72
Designed by: Alister MacKenzie, 1933. (Some re-design work by Tom Fazio)
Bunkers: 43
Water Hazards: 6
Green speeds: 12.5 feet
Defending Champion: Phil Mickelson
Course record: 63, Nick Price (1986), Greg Norman (1996) .
Key holes
The Par fives. Simply put, you don't win at Augusta if you don't play well on the par fives. In fact, last year the four par fives ranked as the easiest five holes on the course yielding 29 eagles and 420 birdies. The two on the second nine are of particular importance, as each of the last six champions have birdied at least one of them in their final round and three have birdied both.
Major six-pack
Martin Kaymer, 20-1
Dustin Johnson, 30-1
Bubba Watson, 40-1
Aaron Baddeley, 50-1
Retief Goosen, 50-1
Jason Day, 100-1
Yardage: 7,435
Par: 72
Designed by: Alister MacKenzie, 1933. (Some re-design work by Tom Fazio)
Bunkers: 43
Water Hazards: 6
Green speeds: 12.5 feet
Defending Champion: Phil Mickelson
Course record: 63, Nick Price (1986), Greg Norman (1996) .
Key holes
The Par fives. Simply put, you don't win at Augusta if you don't play well on the par fives. In fact, last year the four par fives ranked as the easiest five holes on the course yielding 29 eagles and 420 birdies. The two on the second nine are of particular importance, as each of the last six champions have birdied at least one of them in their final round and three have birdied both.
Major six-pack
Martin Kaymer, 20-1
Dustin Johnson, 30-1
Bubba Watson, 40-1
Aaron Baddeley, 50-1
Retief Goosen, 50-1
Jason Day, 100-1
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Shell Houston Open Preview and Picks
Course vitals
Yardage: 7,457
Par: 72
Designed by: Rees Jones
Bunkers: 60
Water Hazards: 13
Green speeds: 13-feet
2010 difficulty rank: 14 of 52.
Defending Champion: Anthony Kim
Course record: 63, Adam Scott (2008).
Foursome Picks
JB Holmes, 33-1. A win and only a win, will get JB Holmes into the field for the Masters next week. His play has been steady this year with no missed cuts, a pair of T5s and four finishing at least T13 in four of his six events. He was a runner-up here the last time he played two years, ironically while also trying to play himself into the field at Augusta.
Steve Marino, 40-1. It's hard not to like Marino when you consider that he's already equalled his number of top-10s from all of last season and he's been a serious contender on Sunday in three of the seven tournaments he's played so far. The three other times he's been a runner-up in his career he's made the cut in his next start and twice posted top-25 finishes. He's been in top-20 the last two years in Houston with a T14 and T19.
Vaughn Taylor, 66-1. Solid but not spectacular. That would probably be the most apt way to describe the start to Taylor's season. He's made the cut in six of his seven tournaments, placing T26, T25 and T25 at Pebble Beach, the Hope and Riviera respectively. He lost in a playoff to Anthony Kim here last year on the strength of a final round 68. There could be some added incentive as someone who attended Augusta State, has not played in the Masters since 2008.
Chad Campbell, 80-1. After missing the cut four weeks in a row, Campbell's game has started to show signs of re-emerging. He's made the cut in the last three tournaments he's played, posting a pair of top-30 finishes and playing 10 of his last 12 rounds at or below par. In the past three years in Houston he's finished T25, T49 and T2.
Longshot: Shaun Micheel, 150-1. It's been nearly eight years since his won and only PGA Tour victory at the 2003 PGA Championship. He has yet to record a top-10 this season and in the previous four seasons combined he had just six in 82 tournaments. He's played well here though, with one of those top-10s a fifth place showing last year. He also finished T26 the two years prior to that.
Kraft Nabisco Championship Picks
Karrie Webb, 18-1.
Ai Miyazato, 40-1.
Anna Nordqvist, 50-1.
Se Ri Pak, 125-1.
Yardage: 7,457
Par: 72
Designed by: Rees Jones
Bunkers: 60
Water Hazards: 13
Green speeds: 13-feet
2010 difficulty rank: 14 of 52.
Defending Champion: Anthony Kim
Course record: 63, Adam Scott (2008).
Foursome Picks
JB Holmes, 33-1. A win and only a win, will get JB Holmes into the field for the Masters next week. His play has been steady this year with no missed cuts, a pair of T5s and four finishing at least T13 in four of his six events. He was a runner-up here the last time he played two years, ironically while also trying to play himself into the field at Augusta.
Steve Marino, 40-1. It's hard not to like Marino when you consider that he's already equalled his number of top-10s from all of last season and he's been a serious contender on Sunday in three of the seven tournaments he's played so far. The three other times he's been a runner-up in his career he's made the cut in his next start and twice posted top-25 finishes. He's been in top-20 the last two years in Houston with a T14 and T19.
Vaughn Taylor, 66-1. Solid but not spectacular. That would probably be the most apt way to describe the start to Taylor's season. He's made the cut in six of his seven tournaments, placing T26, T25 and T25 at Pebble Beach, the Hope and Riviera respectively. He lost in a playoff to Anthony Kim here last year on the strength of a final round 68. There could be some added incentive as someone who attended Augusta State, has not played in the Masters since 2008.
Chad Campbell, 80-1. After missing the cut four weeks in a row, Campbell's game has started to show signs of re-emerging. He's made the cut in the last three tournaments he's played, posting a pair of top-30 finishes and playing 10 of his last 12 rounds at or below par. In the past three years in Houston he's finished T25, T49 and T2.
Longshot: Shaun Micheel, 150-1. It's been nearly eight years since his won and only PGA Tour victory at the 2003 PGA Championship. He has yet to record a top-10 this season and in the previous four seasons combined he had just six in 82 tournaments. He's played well here though, with one of those top-10s a fifth place showing last year. He also finished T26 the two years prior to that.
Kraft Nabisco Championship Picks
Karrie Webb, 18-1.
Ai Miyazato, 40-1.
Anna Nordqvist, 50-1.
Se Ri Pak, 125-1.
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Double Dip: Arnold Palmer Invitational
Again, deadlines this week have really messed up my normal blog features.
Rickie Fowler, 14-1. Eventually he's going to break through for a win on the PGA Tour. He let a 54-hole lead slip away at Jack's tournament last year, so it would be somewhat fitting if he came from behind at Arnie's.
Steve Marino, 14-1. I think we learned a lot about Steve Marino in his finish at Pebble Beach earlier this year. In order to tie D.A. Points for the lead he needed to hole a shot from over 200-yards, and he went for it. Unfortunately he pulled it into the Pacific Ocean, made triple-bogey and ended up T4. Still, I think that "I'm here to try and win" mentality goes a long way.
Hunter Mahan, 100-1. Why not? Until yesterday, he had hit the ball so solid all week. His back nine performance in the second round was a clinic in pin-seeking approach shots.
Rickie Fowler, 14-1. Eventually he's going to break through for a win on the PGA Tour. He let a 54-hole lead slip away at Jack's tournament last year, so it would be somewhat fitting if he came from behind at Arnie's.
Steve Marino, 14-1. I think we learned a lot about Steve Marino in his finish at Pebble Beach earlier this year. In order to tie D.A. Points for the lead he needed to hole a shot from over 200-yards, and he went for it. Unfortunately he pulled it into the Pacific Ocean, made triple-bogey and ended up T4. Still, I think that "I'm here to try and win" mentality goes a long way.
Hunter Mahan, 100-1. Why not? Until yesterday, he had hit the ball so solid all week. His back nine performance in the second round was a clinic in pin-seeking approach shots.
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks
With a few deadlines closing in, I don't have time for a full preview this week. So I present to you my picks with limited distraction.
Hunter Mahan, 22-1. Has been one of the early season stars, posting four top-10s in seven starts. He has yet to miss a cut this year and has played well at Bay Hill the last year with a T25, T22 and T6 here.
Sergio Garcia, 50-1. It's been a slow but steady decline for the former world number two, who now finds himself ranked 82nd in the world. His game is showing signs of coming back around, with a top-30 finishes in all four of his events this year. He has also posted five top-10s in nine appearances in Arnie's tournament.
Kevin Na, 50-1. There was an ugly three week stretch where he was cut at Torrey Pines, TPC Scottsdale and Pebble Beach but on both sides of that stretch he posted top-five finishes. He's been in contention the last two years, with a T2 last year and a T11 in 2009.
Aaron Baddeley, 50-1. When you consider the success he's had since reverting from the stack and tilt to his old swing -- a T6 at Pebble Beach and a win at Riviera is never bad -- it makes his last few years less relevant statistically. He had a good stretch here from 03-05 with a sixth, a T56 and a T5.
Longshot: Kevin Streelman, 100-1. In two appearances at Bay Hill he's posted a T66 and a T7. He's coming off his best start of the year with a T15 at Doral two weeks ago.
Hunter Mahan, 22-1. Has been one of the early season stars, posting four top-10s in seven starts. He has yet to miss a cut this year and has played well at Bay Hill the last year with a T25, T22 and T6 here.
Sergio Garcia, 50-1. It's been a slow but steady decline for the former world number two, who now finds himself ranked 82nd in the world. His game is showing signs of coming back around, with a top-30 finishes in all four of his events this year. He has also posted five top-10s in nine appearances in Arnie's tournament.
Kevin Na, 50-1. There was an ugly three week stretch where he was cut at Torrey Pines, TPC Scottsdale and Pebble Beach but on both sides of that stretch he posted top-five finishes. He's been in contention the last two years, with a T2 last year and a T11 in 2009.
Aaron Baddeley, 50-1. When you consider the success he's had since reverting from the stack and tilt to his old swing -- a T6 at Pebble Beach and a win at Riviera is never bad -- it makes his last few years less relevant statistically. He had a good stretch here from 03-05 with a sixth, a T56 and a T5.
Longshot: Kevin Streelman, 100-1. In two appearances at Bay Hill he's posted a T66 and a T7. He's coming off his best start of the year with a T15 at Doral two weeks ago.
Monday, March 21, 2011
Transitions Championship Tournament Backspin
THERE'S NO WAY to know at this time exactly, but we may eventually look back at the playoff earlier this year at the Bob Hope Classic between Jhonattan Vegas, Bill Haas and Gary Woodland and think that was the beginning of something special for all three. And now that Woodland has broken through with a one-shot victory over Webb Simpson at the Transitions Championship, he joins the other two with a PGA Tour victory on his resume. A former college basketball player and a tremendous athlete, Woodland hits the ball a tonne -- he's been in the top 10 in driving distance in all three of his full seasons -- but it was his putting on Sunday (needing just 23 putts) that made all the difference.
Where it was won: His par save at the 18th was unquestionably huge, but it doesn't have quite the same magnitude if not for his play at 17. After carding back-to-back bogeys at 15 and 16, Woodland stepped to the tee at the 215-yard par three and promptly laced a five-iron to just over 16-feet. He then coaxed the putt down the hill from left to right for the bounce back birdie. Without that putt, his par saving putt is to force a playoff not prove to be the eventual winner.
Where it was lost: Webb Simpson. After playing the Snakepit -- 16-18, the toughest stretch on the course -- at four-under throughout the week, Simpson waited until the worst possible time to card his first bogey there on his final hole. He was -7 on the par fives entering the final round, but did not register a birdie all day.
Justin Rose. Despite shooting back-to-back 65s and entering the final round with a one stroke lead, Rose didn't play nearly well enough to win on Sunday. He carded four straight bogeys from the seventh to the 10th. In the first three rounds, not only did he only have three bogeys in total, but on that stretch had carded four birdies and eight pars.
Shots of the week
Stat of the week: In the final round Woodland needed only 23 putts and was an incredible 17 of 17 on putts of 20-feet or less, none more important than the 10-footer he made for par at 18 -- his only par of the back nine.
How I did
-Justin Rose, T5
-John Senden, T15
-Geoff Ogilvy, T28
-Stephen Ames, cut
-Charlie Wii, cut
Early look at next week:
-A nice field for the Arnold Palmer Invitational
-Who I like: Sean O'Hair, Zach Johnson, Brandt Snedeker, Kevin Na.
Where it was won: His par save at the 18th was unquestionably huge, but it doesn't have quite the same magnitude if not for his play at 17. After carding back-to-back bogeys at 15 and 16, Woodland stepped to the tee at the 215-yard par three and promptly laced a five-iron to just over 16-feet. He then coaxed the putt down the hill from left to right for the bounce back birdie. Without that putt, his par saving putt is to force a playoff not prove to be the eventual winner.
Where it was lost: Webb Simpson. After playing the Snakepit -- 16-18, the toughest stretch on the course -- at four-under throughout the week, Simpson waited until the worst possible time to card his first bogey there on his final hole. He was -7 on the par fives entering the final round, but did not register a birdie all day.
Justin Rose. Despite shooting back-to-back 65s and entering the final round with a one stroke lead, Rose didn't play nearly well enough to win on Sunday. He carded four straight bogeys from the seventh to the 10th. In the first three rounds, not only did he only have three bogeys in total, but on that stretch had carded four birdies and eight pars.
Shots of the week
Stat of the week: In the final round Woodland needed only 23 putts and was an incredible 17 of 17 on putts of 20-feet or less, none more important than the 10-footer he made for par at 18 -- his only par of the back nine.
How I did
-Justin Rose, T5
-John Senden, T15
-Geoff Ogilvy, T28
-Stephen Ames, cut
-Charlie Wii, cut
Early look at next week:
-A nice field for the Arnold Palmer Invitational
-Who I like: Sean O'Hair, Zach Johnson, Brandt Snedeker, Kevin Na.
Saturday, March 19, 2011
Trunk Slammer/Double Dip: Transitions Championship
Bill Haas. In the 15 tournaments since he was last cut, Haas won once and was a runner-up twice. His worst result was a T47 and in the 14 other events he finished at least inside the top 35.
Padraig Harrington. Although he carded a one-under 70 in the second round, it probably could have been much lower. He hit 83 per cent of greens in reg, but needed 33 putts overall -- with a 1.933 putts per GIR average.
Sean O'Hair. Not since the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational in early August has O'Hair posted a top-five finish. In fact, his only top-25 came last week with a T24 at the Honda Classic.
Robert Garrigus. Make that four missed cuts, a WD and a T51 since losing in a playoff to Jonathan Byrd at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions.
Ryo Ishikawa. On his month-long tour of the U.S., Ishikawa has been cut twice, been knocked out in the first round at the match play and finished T42 at Doral after a final round 78.
K.J. Choi. Two-time champ cards four bogeys and no birdies to get the weekend off.
Trunk Slammer of the week: Jamie Lovemark. Five missed cuts, a WD, T28 and T58 for the 2010 Nationwide Tour player of the year. Was sitting at -1 standing on the 16th tee, a quadruple bogey and back-to-back bogeys pushed him to five-over.
Double Dip
Jonathan Byrd, 28-1. After winning the first event of the season, Byrd struggled to find his form with three mid-30s finishes, while also being cut twice. He is coming off a T10 at Doral last week though and has hit a lot of greens in reg. If he can make some putts (1.756 per GIR) he could make a run.
Stewart Cink, 66-1. Since wince the '09 British Open, Cink has turned in just four top-10s and only one of those was a full field event. But he knows how to win and has played solid all week. May be a little too far back, but he's worth taking a flyer on.
Jason Day, 100-1/Paul Casey, 80-1. There have been nine rounds of 65 or less this week including one by both of them. If Justin Rose can fire two rounds of 65, why can't they?
Padraig Harrington. Although he carded a one-under 70 in the second round, it probably could have been much lower. He hit 83 per cent of greens in reg, but needed 33 putts overall -- with a 1.933 putts per GIR average.
Sean O'Hair. Not since the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational in early August has O'Hair posted a top-five finish. In fact, his only top-25 came last week with a T24 at the Honda Classic.
Robert Garrigus. Make that four missed cuts, a WD and a T51 since losing in a playoff to Jonathan Byrd at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions.
Ryo Ishikawa. On his month-long tour of the U.S., Ishikawa has been cut twice, been knocked out in the first round at the match play and finished T42 at Doral after a final round 78.
K.J. Choi. Two-time champ cards four bogeys and no birdies to get the weekend off.
Trunk Slammer of the week: Jamie Lovemark. Five missed cuts, a WD, T28 and T58 for the 2010 Nationwide Tour player of the year. Was sitting at -1 standing on the 16th tee, a quadruple bogey and back-to-back bogeys pushed him to five-over.
Double Dip
Jonathan Byrd, 28-1. After winning the first event of the season, Byrd struggled to find his form with three mid-30s finishes, while also being cut twice. He is coming off a T10 at Doral last week though and has hit a lot of greens in reg. If he can make some putts (1.756 per GIR) he could make a run.
Stewart Cink, 66-1. Since wince the '09 British Open, Cink has turned in just four top-10s and only one of those was a full field event. But he knows how to win and has played solid all week. May be a little too far back, but he's worth taking a flyer on.
Jason Day, 100-1/Paul Casey, 80-1. There have been nine rounds of 65 or less this week including one by both of them. If Justin Rose can fire two rounds of 65, why can't they?
Friday, March 18, 2011
Friday Fourball: March 18
Dustin Johnson will have a better year than he did last year. While a cynic would look at how things ended for him at the U.S. Open and the PGA Championship, it would be hard to deny that Dustin Johnson had a pretty good 2010. He won a pair of prestigious tournaments in the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am and BMW Championship; he contended in -- and very well could have won -- two majors; he played on the Ryder Cup team; and he rose into the top-15 in the World Golf Rankings.
But for as much length as he has off the tee -- and he's never averaged less than 308.3 yards per drive in three full PGA Tour seasons and parts of two more -- he's struggled with some of his shots with the shorter clubs, ones that he often has because of his power. On his approaches from 50-125 yards over the past three years his average proximity to the hole is as followings (Tour rank in parentheses).
This year -- after some hard work with Butch Harmon -- he has seen a drastic improvement in that area, slicing off nearly six-feet from last year with an average proximity to the cup of 14-feet, nine inches, which ranks 11th on Tour. If you think that's an insignificant number, consider that over the last nine year that would rank as the best average in all but three seasons (Those years the averages were: 14'2", 14'3" and 14'2"). Also consider that the percentage of putts made at 15-feet is quite a bit higher than at 20-feet. For example, over the last nine seasons the PGA Tour leader in the category would make a putt in the 15-20 foot range 30.6 per cent of the time. Conversely putts from 20-25 feet were led 23.58 per cent of the time.
Working the ball right to left at Augusta? Overrated. In three appearances in the Masters, 2010 PGA Champion and world number one Martin Kaymer has never played the weekend. In fact, he's been cut more often at Augusta (three) than he has in the other three majors combined (twice). As we are now on the fast-track towards that familiar trip down Magnolia Lane, many pundits have theorized that Kaymer won't be a factor since his natural shot shape is from left to right, rather than the preferred right-to-left. While I won't try to argue that the ability to work the ball that way is not advantageous at times -- the tee-shot at the 13th for example -- I think it would certainly be more accurate to say the ability to work the ball both ways is important. Looking at the back nine -- where Augusta's famous roars were born -- at least three of the key holes -- the 11th, 15th and 18th -- would promote a left-to-right ball flight. When you consider that Ben Hogan and Jack Nicklaus -- two of the greatest players of all time -- have eight Masters titles between them and were far more likely to play their ball with a gentle, controlled fade, it also hurts that argument a bit.
What to do with the WGCs? They are called the World Golf Championships, despite the obvious fact that majority of the tournaments -- 75 per cent on a current annual basis, and 76.5 per cent all time -- take place on American soil. There was a time when the tournament that has now become the WGC-Cadillac Championship was played pretty consistently in Europe before landing at Doral. Either way, given the international flavour you're bound to find on any given leaderboard and as the game goes down a path towards the 2016 Olympics, they needn't be so landlocked in the U.S. Here are some ideas to change that.
1. Move the match play around. When you consider the number of venues that have hosted either the Ryder Cup, President's Cup, Walker Cup, Solheim Cup etc. there are so many courses suited to the risk/reward nature of match-play golf. Add in the conventional wisdom that the players don't like the Dove Mountain course that has hosted the event the last three years and it sounds like a no brainer.
2. Make the RBC Canadian Open a WGC event. This isn't homerism at it's finest, but rather a tip of the cap to the third oldest tournament on the PGA Tour and fourth oldest in the world behind only the British and U.S. Opens (and South African Open in the case of globally). On top of that, it looks as though Golf Canada is committed to the idea of either moving the tournament around or at least getting a rotation of courses. Some of these courses -- including this year's event at Shaughnessy G&CC in Vancouver -- are major championship-calibre courses.
3. Schedule a WGC event either just before or just after the Ryder Cup or President's Cup and in a similar location. This seems simple enough and means that tournament's would be moved out of the U.S. in only two of four years.
The best never: to win on PGA Tour. It should be noted that two of the participants on this list have won on the European Tour. Still, if the question is: who are the best never to have won on the PGA Tour I think it's a fair list.
1. Rickie Fowler. Reason he's poised to win: In 42 starts on the PGA Tour, he has three seconds and one third place finish to go with 11 top-10s and 16 top-25s.
2. Charl Schwartzel. Reason he's poised to win: He has seven professional wins and in the top-20 in three of the four majors last year.
3. Robert Karlsson. Reason he's poised to win: He has 11 European Tour titles and last year finished at least T43 in all four majors. In 2008, he posted top-10s in three of the four majors and was still T20 in the other.
4. Kevin Na. Reason he's poised to win: Has posted 15 top-10s in the last three seasons and won on the Asian Tour when he was just 19.
5. Steve Marino. Reason he's posited to win: Three runner-up finishes in his career, and nearly as many top-10s this year (two) as all of last year (three) in a quarter of the tournaments.
But for as much length as he has off the tee -- and he's never averaged less than 308.3 yards per drive in three full PGA Tour seasons and parts of two more -- he's struggled with some of his shots with the shorter clubs, ones that he often has because of his power. On his approaches from 50-125 yards over the past three years his average proximity to the hole is as followings (Tour rank in parentheses).
2010 - 20-feet, four inches (168)
2009 - 20-feet, two inches (157)
2008 - 19-feet, five inches (145)
This year -- after some hard work with Butch Harmon -- he has seen a drastic improvement in that area, slicing off nearly six-feet from last year with an average proximity to the cup of 14-feet, nine inches, which ranks 11th on Tour. If you think that's an insignificant number, consider that over the last nine year that would rank as the best average in all but three seasons (Those years the averages were: 14'2", 14'3" and 14'2"). Also consider that the percentage of putts made at 15-feet is quite a bit higher than at 20-feet. For example, over the last nine seasons the PGA Tour leader in the category would make a putt in the 15-20 foot range 30.6 per cent of the time. Conversely putts from 20-25 feet were led 23.58 per cent of the time.
Working the ball right to left at Augusta? Overrated. In three appearances in the Masters, 2010 PGA Champion and world number one Martin Kaymer has never played the weekend. In fact, he's been cut more often at Augusta (three) than he has in the other three majors combined (twice). As we are now on the fast-track towards that familiar trip down Magnolia Lane, many pundits have theorized that Kaymer won't be a factor since his natural shot shape is from left to right, rather than the preferred right-to-left. While I won't try to argue that the ability to work the ball that way is not advantageous at times -- the tee-shot at the 13th for example -- I think it would certainly be more accurate to say the ability to work the ball both ways is important. Looking at the back nine -- where Augusta's famous roars were born -- at least three of the key holes -- the 11th, 15th and 18th -- would promote a left-to-right ball flight. When you consider that Ben Hogan and Jack Nicklaus -- two of the greatest players of all time -- have eight Masters titles between them and were far more likely to play their ball with a gentle, controlled fade, it also hurts that argument a bit.
What to do with the WGCs? They are called the World Golf Championships, despite the obvious fact that majority of the tournaments -- 75 per cent on a current annual basis, and 76.5 per cent all time -- take place on American soil. There was a time when the tournament that has now become the WGC-Cadillac Championship was played pretty consistently in Europe before landing at Doral. Either way, given the international flavour you're bound to find on any given leaderboard and as the game goes down a path towards the 2016 Olympics, they needn't be so landlocked in the U.S. Here are some ideas to change that.
1. Move the match play around. When you consider the number of venues that have hosted either the Ryder Cup, President's Cup, Walker Cup, Solheim Cup etc. there are so many courses suited to the risk/reward nature of match-play golf. Add in the conventional wisdom that the players don't like the Dove Mountain course that has hosted the event the last three years and it sounds like a no brainer.
2. Make the RBC Canadian Open a WGC event. This isn't homerism at it's finest, but rather a tip of the cap to the third oldest tournament on the PGA Tour and fourth oldest in the world behind only the British and U.S. Opens (and South African Open in the case of globally). On top of that, it looks as though Golf Canada is committed to the idea of either moving the tournament around or at least getting a rotation of courses. Some of these courses -- including this year's event at Shaughnessy G&CC in Vancouver -- are major championship-calibre courses.
3. Schedule a WGC event either just before or just after the Ryder Cup or President's Cup and in a similar location. This seems simple enough and means that tournament's would be moved out of the U.S. in only two of four years.
The best never: to win on PGA Tour. It should be noted that two of the participants on this list have won on the European Tour. Still, if the question is: who are the best never to have won on the PGA Tour I think it's a fair list.
1. Rickie Fowler. Reason he's poised to win: In 42 starts on the PGA Tour, he has three seconds and one third place finish to go with 11 top-10s and 16 top-25s.
2. Charl Schwartzel. Reason he's poised to win: He has seven professional wins and in the top-20 in three of the four majors last year.
3. Robert Karlsson. Reason he's poised to win: He has 11 European Tour titles and last year finished at least T43 in all four majors. In 2008, he posted top-10s in three of the four majors and was still T20 in the other.
4. Kevin Na. Reason he's poised to win: Has posted 15 top-10s in the last three seasons and won on the Asian Tour when he was just 19.
5. Steve Marino. Reason he's posited to win: Three runner-up finishes in his career, and nearly as many top-10s this year (two) as all of last year (three) in a quarter of the tournaments.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Transitions Championship Preview and Picks
Course vitals
Yardage: 7,340
Par: 71
Designed by: Larry Packard (1967).
Bunkers: 75
Water Hazards: 9
Green speeds: 11-feet.
2010 difficulty rank: 12
Defending Champion: Jim Furyk
Course record: 62, Jeff Sluman (2004), Mark Calcavecchia, 2007.
Key Back nine holes
509-yard par five 14th: With three par-threes on the back nine -- all of them at least 200-yards -- it magnifies the importance of scoring on the par-fives. The 14th is the last real good scoring opportunity coming in, as 16-18 played more than a half stroke over par in total last year. Even the par three 15th -- which ranked as the sixth easiest hole last year -- played slightly over par.
475-yard par four 16th: The numbers from a year ago pretty much tell it all: 33 birdies, 302 pars, 78 bogeys, 25 double bogeys, five triple bogeys or worse. With water all the way down the right side, finding the fairway off the tee is of paramount importance.
Foursome Picks
Justin Rose, 33-1. It's been a solid but unspectacular early part of the year. The Englishman has posted the following results this year: T12, T13, T25, T9, T17, T42. In 20 stroke play rounds, he's posted just two above par. Has played well at Innisbrook in the past with a T13 last year, T14 in '08 and three more top-30 finishes in his three other appearances.
Geoff Ogilvy, 33-1. A very similar start to the year for Ogilvy with three top-25s, a T49 last week and cut at Pebble Beach. Still, he's only posted two rounds over par in 15 stroke play rounds. He was cut in 2005, but in four other starts here he's posted no worse than a T28 and has two top-10s.
Stephen Ames, 50-1. Yes, it was an opposite field event but Ames' T3 in Puerto Rico last week was his best result on Tour since a T6 at the Transitions last year. It was also his first top-five since winning the Children's Miracle Network Classic in the 2009 Fall Series. In seven appearances here he's never been cut and has posted a pair of top-10s and a top-20.
John Senden, 80-1. So he's been cut in half of the tournaments he's played this year. We'll put that out there first. But he's also posted two top-25s along the way and it's a very much a metaphor for how he's played at the Transitions. He's been cut twice to go with a T28 and a pair of T2s.
Longshot: Charlie Wi, 125-1. After frittering away a chance to win the BMW Championship during the PGA Tour playoffs last fall, Wi's best finish has been a T18. In that span he's only been cut twice -- unfortunately the last two times he's played -- but he's played well in four appearances here: T20, T4, T23, T43.
Yardage: 7,340
Par: 71
Designed by: Larry Packard (1967).
Bunkers: 75
Water Hazards: 9
Green speeds: 11-feet.
2010 difficulty rank: 12
Defending Champion: Jim Furyk
Course record: 62, Jeff Sluman (2004), Mark Calcavecchia, 2007.
Key Back nine holes
509-yard par five 14th: With three par-threes on the back nine -- all of them at least 200-yards -- it magnifies the importance of scoring on the par-fives. The 14th is the last real good scoring opportunity coming in, as 16-18 played more than a half stroke over par in total last year. Even the par three 15th -- which ranked as the sixth easiest hole last year -- played slightly over par.
475-yard par four 16th: The numbers from a year ago pretty much tell it all: 33 birdies, 302 pars, 78 bogeys, 25 double bogeys, five triple bogeys or worse. With water all the way down the right side, finding the fairway off the tee is of paramount importance.
Foursome Picks
Justin Rose, 33-1. It's been a solid but unspectacular early part of the year. The Englishman has posted the following results this year: T12, T13, T25, T9, T17, T42. In 20 stroke play rounds, he's posted just two above par. Has played well at Innisbrook in the past with a T13 last year, T14 in '08 and three more top-30 finishes in his three other appearances.
Geoff Ogilvy, 33-1. A very similar start to the year for Ogilvy with three top-25s, a T49 last week and cut at Pebble Beach. Still, he's only posted two rounds over par in 15 stroke play rounds. He was cut in 2005, but in four other starts here he's posted no worse than a T28 and has two top-10s.
Stephen Ames, 50-1. Yes, it was an opposite field event but Ames' T3 in Puerto Rico last week was his best result on Tour since a T6 at the Transitions last year. It was also his first top-five since winning the Children's Miracle Network Classic in the 2009 Fall Series. In seven appearances here he's never been cut and has posted a pair of top-10s and a top-20.
John Senden, 80-1. So he's been cut in half of the tournaments he's played this year. We'll put that out there first. But he's also posted two top-25s along the way and it's a very much a metaphor for how he's played at the Transitions. He's been cut twice to go with a T28 and a pair of T2s.
Longshot: Charlie Wi, 125-1. After frittering away a chance to win the BMW Championship during the PGA Tour playoffs last fall, Wi's best finish has been a T18. In that span he's only been cut twice -- unfortunately the last two times he's played -- but he's played well in four appearances here: T20, T4, T23, T43.
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Tournament Backspin: WGC-Cadillac Championship
APPARENTLY FORM DOES matter on the PGA Tour. After all, there has been no one more consistent this year -- not even you, Matt Kuchar -- than Nick Watney. Consider that in the last two years, spanning 31 tournaments he's shot in the 80's (four times) more often than he's been cut (just twice). The last time he was cut, by the way, was at The Memorial last June.
Since then, he's finished in the top-10 nine times and the top-20 13 times. Admittedly the majority of those have been this year, as he's opened the year with the following results: T6, T5, T6, T9, win. It's the third win of his career and first since the Buick Invitational more than two years ago. I already wrote on Friday that I thought he was a strong play for Augusta and nothing I saw over the weekend made me move off that point. In fact, I'm glad I got action on that when I did. Given the way he fell apart in the final round at the PGA Championship last year (one of those rounds in the 80s) and the way he finished his round yesterday (finding the water on the 18th hole, making a double bogey to fall out of the lead and the final group) you have to give him credit for having the resolve for getting things done.
Where it was won: Given how solid he played all day, it's hard to really single one area out. That said, a pair of long par putts -- 17-feet at the 13th and 24-feet from the fringe at the 15th -- probably loom as his two largest strokes of the tournament. He opened with birdies on the first two holes and -- despite a bogey at the fourth -- carried the momentum from there. Unlike his main adversary in Dustin Johnson (see below) Watney really had the flat stick working. He made 16 of 19 putts inside 15 feet, including all seven of his birdies and needed just 22 putts overall.
Where it was lost: It would be too easy to point Johnson's lone bogey of the round and only second of the weekend as the reason he didn't win the tournament, but it's not quite that simple. With his prodigious length off the tee, Johnson should beat up par fives, but was just one-under in his final round notching a birdie on his opening hole and missing birdie putts of 20-feet, 15-feet and just under seven-feet on the other three. He missed four other birdie bids from reasonable range -- 17-feet at 2 and 4, seven-feet at the seventh and just under 10-feet at the 18th, which can be excused since he knew he had no chance of winning. But even with all that in mind, this may be a good breakout for him in 2011, a topic will explore in more depth in the Friday Fourball.
Shots of the week
Stat of the week: For the week Watney played the par-fives at 11-under. On the weekend he was nine-under having birdied every par five on both days with the exception of recording an eagle at the first on Saturday.
How I did
WGC-Cadillac Championship
Nick Watney, win
Louis Oosthuizen, T18
Paul Casey, T18
Charl Schwartzel, T24
Bill Haas, T31
Jim Furyk, T49
Puerto Rico Open
Angel Cabrera, T7
John Merrick, T11
Brendon de Jonge, T14
Paul Stankowski, T55
Kris Blanks, Cut
Early look at next week:
-Innisbrook is one of the tougher tracks on the PGA Tour
-Who I like: KJ Choi, Geoff Ogilvy, Charles Howell III
Since then, he's finished in the top-10 nine times and the top-20 13 times. Admittedly the majority of those have been this year, as he's opened the year with the following results: T6, T5, T6, T9, win. It's the third win of his career and first since the Buick Invitational more than two years ago. I already wrote on Friday that I thought he was a strong play for Augusta and nothing I saw over the weekend made me move off that point. In fact, I'm glad I got action on that when I did. Given the way he fell apart in the final round at the PGA Championship last year (one of those rounds in the 80s) and the way he finished his round yesterday (finding the water on the 18th hole, making a double bogey to fall out of the lead and the final group) you have to give him credit for having the resolve for getting things done.
Where it was won: Given how solid he played all day, it's hard to really single one area out. That said, a pair of long par putts -- 17-feet at the 13th and 24-feet from the fringe at the 15th -- probably loom as his two largest strokes of the tournament. He opened with birdies on the first two holes and -- despite a bogey at the fourth -- carried the momentum from there. Unlike his main adversary in Dustin Johnson (see below) Watney really had the flat stick working. He made 16 of 19 putts inside 15 feet, including all seven of his birdies and needed just 22 putts overall.
Where it was lost: It would be too easy to point Johnson's lone bogey of the round and only second of the weekend as the reason he didn't win the tournament, but it's not quite that simple. With his prodigious length off the tee, Johnson should beat up par fives, but was just one-under in his final round notching a birdie on his opening hole and missing birdie putts of 20-feet, 15-feet and just under seven-feet on the other three. He missed four other birdie bids from reasonable range -- 17-feet at 2 and 4, seven-feet at the seventh and just under 10-feet at the 18th, which can be excused since he knew he had no chance of winning. But even with all that in mind, this may be a good breakout for him in 2011, a topic will explore in more depth in the Friday Fourball.
Shots of the week
Stat of the week: For the week Watney played the par-fives at 11-under. On the weekend he was nine-under having birdied every par five on both days with the exception of recording an eagle at the first on Saturday.
How I did
WGC-Cadillac Championship
Nick Watney, win
Louis Oosthuizen, T18
Paul Casey, T18
Charl Schwartzel, T24
Bill Haas, T31
Jim Furyk, T49
Puerto Rico Open
Angel Cabrera, T7
John Merrick, T11
Brendon de Jonge, T14
Paul Stankowski, T55
Kris Blanks, Cut
Early look at next week:
-Innisbrook is one of the tougher tracks on the PGA Tour
-Who I like: KJ Choi, Geoff Ogilvy, Charles Howell III
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Double dip: WGC-Cadillac Championship
PICKING A WINNER at any point is never an exact science. But given the inconsistency of how the course has played this week -- it played a bit easier in the first and third rounds with 42 and 41 players below par, while the second round yielded just 25 -- you first have to figure out where the winning score might fall. And given that volatility, it could be tough. But let's say it falls somewhere between -12 and -15. In that case, it would bring a lot of those players in the high single digits back into contention.
Hunter Mahan, 16-1. Has made the most birdies this week with 17, but has doubled his bogey total each day -- from one to two to four. If he can hit more greens in reg -- his numbers dropped from 83 per cent to 72 to 56 -- he seems to have a good feel for the greens.
Adam Scott, 22-1. Leading the field in driving accuracy and T3 in greens in reg. He needed 30 putts each of the first two days, but trimmed that to 26 in round three and if he putts like that, he could be right there.
Padraig Harrington, 40-1. Hard to imagine a three-time major champion flying more under the radar than the Irishman. He hasn't made a tonne of birdies -- but his numbers are solid all around, and he's carded only four bogeys.
Martin Kaymer, 100-1. Why not? He's the best player in the world and if the winning number is -12, there could be a 66 or 65 out there for him.
Hunter Mahan, 16-1. Has made the most birdies this week with 17, but has doubled his bogey total each day -- from one to two to four. If he can hit more greens in reg -- his numbers dropped from 83 per cent to 72 to 56 -- he seems to have a good feel for the greens.
Adam Scott, 22-1. Leading the field in driving accuracy and T3 in greens in reg. He needed 30 putts each of the first two days, but trimmed that to 26 in round three and if he putts like that, he could be right there.
Padraig Harrington, 40-1. Hard to imagine a three-time major champion flying more under the radar than the Irishman. He hasn't made a tonne of birdies -- but his numbers are solid all around, and he's carded only four bogeys.
Martin Kaymer, 100-1. Why not? He's the best player in the world and if the winning number is -12, there could be a 66 or 65 out there for him.
Friday, March 11, 2011
Friday Fourball: March 11
Phil Mickelson will never be world number one. It started last year at The Players. On the heels of a win at The Masters and a runner-up finish at Quail Hollow -- only succumbing to Rory McIlroy's 62 on Sunday -- Phil Mickelson and his chance to supplant Tiger Woods as world number one seemed to be a headline every week.
He never broke through however and has now slipped to number six in the world. There are a number of factors that could have contributed to this, most would just be speculation. But either way, with his psoriatic arthritic condition and being on the wrong side of 40, he will never make it to number one.
That's not to say he won't win again or won't win another major even -- certainly he's still capable of catching lightning in a bottle over four days if he drives and putts well, especially given his new Dave Stockton-inspired more aggressive putting style -- but the kind of prolonged effort he would need to climb back up the rankings just isn't there.
And it may ultimately be a statistical anomaly on his career resume. He's a certain Hall of Famer -- of that, there is no doubt. But you may see him start to decline in the coming years. Just look at his driving numbers: This year he's averaging 290.6 yards off the tee. From 2003 to last year he was between 306 yards and 295.7 yards off the tee on average. At best that's five less yards off the tee and at worst 16 less yards off the tee.
It may seem like a statistically insignificant number, but they don't tell the full story. That is, Mickelson seems to be swinging full tilt nearly every time he tees it up. It can't be a good sign to step on every single tee-shot and average less.
What's up with Camilo Villegas? Normally a quick starter at the beginning of the year, it has been anything but a quick start this year for Villegas. His opening round at the WGC-Cadillac Championship may ultimately be a microcosm for his year. He opened with birdies on four of his first holes to surge to a (very) early lead. He followed up with two bogeys, a triple and two more birdies to finish his round at one-under.
I've mentioned tihs time and again in this space. But in case you missed it, here's how he's started the year: DQ, cut, T44, W/D, T33, Cut. Quite the contrast to last year when he started: 3, T8, win, T16 plus a T19 and T9 on the European Tour.
Think about that for a second. His worst result in his first six starts last year was better than his best this year, and it wasn't even close. It was especially distressing when he flamed out last week as the defending champion at the Honda Classic, never even sniffing an even par rounds with a 79 and 78 in his only two rounds.
There could be a number of factors here. First there's the back injury that forced him to withdraw in Phoenix. Then there's his switch from Cobra to TaylorMade. And finally there's the fact that his caddy, Brett Waldman, is now playing on the NationwideTour, instead of toting his bag.
(Coincidentally Waldman got off to a great start in his first Nationwide event, shooting 68 in his first round but has failed to break par in five rounds since.)
I personally think all of these have played a small role, though I don't put much stock in the club switch. Ultimately, Villegas have proven to be a pretty streaky player. Consider that his three wins have all come during periods where he's been playing well. There's last year's win at the Honda and then his two wins during the 2008 playoffs which came during the following stretch: T4, cut, T3, win, win.
The bottom line is that Villegas is a talented player and will ultimately get things worked out. When that happens is an item for more debate.
Martin Kaymer might stay at number one for a while. If somebody -- Lee Westwood could mathematically do it this week -- doesn't knock Kaymer out of the top spot in the world rankings soon, it might be a long time before someone does. In four events so far he already has a win, lapping the field in Abu Dhabi by eight strokes and a runner-up at the WGC-Accenture Match Play event.
He seems like the perfect front runner. The same way Tiger used to seem more robot than human, he at least flashed some emotion (subtitle: anger) when he made a mistake. Kaymer doesn't do that. He just seems so flat-lined, regardless of what happens during a round.
Is Adam Scott switching a long putter a bad sign? He's still only 30 years old, but Adam Scott recently made the switch to the long putter. It's strange for somebody so young to make the change, especially given the fact that he's had a few signature wins, some even punctuated by a long putt.
There's also the fact that nobody has even won a major championship using the long blade but I would chalk that up to statistical anomaly more than anything and ultimately this may be a good move for Scott.
Looking at his recent putting stats, it may be a move of necessity.
His putting is probably not as bad this year as that number indicates considering the sample size but it is interesting to see the affect on his current PGA Tour scoring average -- 73.
He never broke through however and has now slipped to number six in the world. There are a number of factors that could have contributed to this, most would just be speculation. But either way, with his psoriatic arthritic condition and being on the wrong side of 40, he will never make it to number one.
That's not to say he won't win again or won't win another major even -- certainly he's still capable of catching lightning in a bottle over four days if he drives and putts well, especially given his new Dave Stockton-inspired more aggressive putting style -- but the kind of prolonged effort he would need to climb back up the rankings just isn't there.
And it may ultimately be a statistical anomaly on his career resume. He's a certain Hall of Famer -- of that, there is no doubt. But you may see him start to decline in the coming years. Just look at his driving numbers: This year he's averaging 290.6 yards off the tee. From 2003 to last year he was between 306 yards and 295.7 yards off the tee on average. At best that's five less yards off the tee and at worst 16 less yards off the tee.
It may seem like a statistically insignificant number, but they don't tell the full story. That is, Mickelson seems to be swinging full tilt nearly every time he tees it up. It can't be a good sign to step on every single tee-shot and average less.
What's up with Camilo Villegas? Normally a quick starter at the beginning of the year, it has been anything but a quick start this year for Villegas. His opening round at the WGC-Cadillac Championship may ultimately be a microcosm for his year. He opened with birdies on four of his first holes to surge to a (very) early lead. He followed up with two bogeys, a triple and two more birdies to finish his round at one-under.
I've mentioned tihs time and again in this space. But in case you missed it, here's how he's started the year: DQ, cut, T44, W/D, T33, Cut. Quite the contrast to last year when he started: 3, T8, win, T16 plus a T19 and T9 on the European Tour.
Think about that for a second. His worst result in his first six starts last year was better than his best this year, and it wasn't even close. It was especially distressing when he flamed out last week as the defending champion at the Honda Classic, never even sniffing an even par rounds with a 79 and 78 in his only two rounds.
There could be a number of factors here. First there's the back injury that forced him to withdraw in Phoenix. Then there's his switch from Cobra to TaylorMade. And finally there's the fact that his caddy, Brett Waldman, is now playing on the NationwideTour, instead of toting his bag.
(Coincidentally Waldman got off to a great start in his first Nationwide event, shooting 68 in his first round but has failed to break par in five rounds since.)
I personally think all of these have played a small role, though I don't put much stock in the club switch. Ultimately, Villegas have proven to be a pretty streaky player. Consider that his three wins have all come during periods where he's been playing well. There's last year's win at the Honda and then his two wins during the 2008 playoffs which came during the following stretch: T4, cut, T3, win, win.
The bottom line is that Villegas is a talented player and will ultimately get things worked out. When that happens is an item for more debate.
Martin Kaymer might stay at number one for a while. If somebody -- Lee Westwood could mathematically do it this week -- doesn't knock Kaymer out of the top spot in the world rankings soon, it might be a long time before someone does. In four events so far he already has a win, lapping the field in Abu Dhabi by eight strokes and a runner-up at the WGC-Accenture Match Play event.
He seems like the perfect front runner. The same way Tiger used to seem more robot than human, he at least flashed some emotion (subtitle: anger) when he made a mistake. Kaymer doesn't do that. He just seems so flat-lined, regardless of what happens during a round.
Is Adam Scott switching a long putter a bad sign? He's still only 30 years old, but Adam Scott recently made the switch to the long putter. It's strange for somebody so young to make the change, especially given the fact that he's had a few signature wins, some even punctuated by a long putt.
There's also the fact that nobody has even won a major championship using the long blade but I would chalk that up to statistical anomaly more than anything and ultimately this may be a good move for Scott.
Looking at his recent putting stats, it may be a move of necessity.
2002 putts per round: 29.36
2005 putts per round: 29.43
2008 putts per round: 29.73
2009 putts per round: 30.10
2010 putts per round: 30.07
2011 putts per round: 31.88
His putting is probably not as bad this year as that number indicates considering the sample size but it is interesting to see the affect on his current PGA Tour scoring average -- 73.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Futures Market: March 10
This is the beginning of new feature where we'll examine some of the available futures wagers out there highlight a few that could be profitable.
Matt Kuchar, 16-1 to win a major in 2011, 33-1 top-20 in all four majors, 125-1, top-10 in all four majors. I think taking Kuchar at 16-1 in any tournament would be an okay play, add in three additional ones -- even if they are the majors -- and it's only heightened. As for the other two plays, one of the best assets Kuchar has is his consistency. As a matter of fact, he wasn't that far off from achieving top-20 in all four last year by posting T25, T6, T27 and T10.
Nick Watney, 25-1 to win the Masters. In three appearances at the Masters, Watney has posted three top-20 finishes, including a solo seventh last year. While he may have fired a final round 81 that took him from the 54-hole lead at last year's PGA Championship into a T18, it could ultimately be a good learning experience for the 30-year old. After all there is some precedent for that. While not in the same year, Mike Weir went from a share of the 54-hole lead at the 1999 PGA Championship. After a final round 80, he had to settle for a T10.
Anthony Kim, 66-1 to win the U.S. Open. After wrist surgery last year, Kim has not gotten off to the start this year he was probably hoping for. But, for me, it's hard to ignore his scintillating 65 in the final round of last year's Masters that propelled him to a solo 3rd place finish. Simply put, he has major championship chops and he's performed well in the American national championship, never finishing worse than T26. He also has a win at Congressional, firing a final round 65 to win the AT&T National in 2008.
Steve Stricker, 50-1 to win the Masters. At Augusta National, you have to be able to do a lot of things well, but it seems like if you do a couple of things exceptionally -- your putting and wedge play -- you can compete. Stricker has long been known as a tremendous putter and wedge player, as evidenced this year by his ability to play nearly a third of a stroke under par when facing approach shots of 50-125 yards. He's been cut at the Masters five times, but whenever he does make the cut he finishes in the top-40 and twice in the top-10.
Y.E. Yang, 100-1 to win the Masters, 40-1 to win a major. How's this for stat: in five events this year, the '09 PGA Champion already has one more top-10 (three) than he had last year. It's pretty hard to believe he struggled the way he did last year, given how unflappable he was in yanking that title away from Tiger Woods as Hazeltine. He obviously has the type of game and demeanour to win a major title and he finished T8 at Augusta last year.
Bubba Watson, 50-1 to win the Masters. It's amazing how much difference a little confidence can make but in Watson's case, it's made all the difference. After a breakthrough victory last year he has: contended in a major, made the Ryder Cup team, won again and made a serious run during a big-field WGC event. He's only played the Masters twice but he's never missed the cut. A lot of holes at Augusta set up for a right to left shot and you can't help but think he can do some damage on those par fives.
Charl Schwartzel, 66-1 top-20 in all four majors. It might seem a little out there for a guy who has never seriously contended in a major, at least, until you look at his 2010 results in the majors: T30, T16, T14, T18. He's got a lot of game and at age 26 is poised for a good career. He already boasts seven career professional wins with with three in the last 15 months.
Matt Kuchar, 16-1 to win a major in 2011, 33-1 top-20 in all four majors, 125-1, top-10 in all four majors. I think taking Kuchar at 16-1 in any tournament would be an okay play, add in three additional ones -- even if they are the majors -- and it's only heightened. As for the other two plays, one of the best assets Kuchar has is his consistency. As a matter of fact, he wasn't that far off from achieving top-20 in all four last year by posting T25, T6, T27 and T10.
Nick Watney, 25-1 to win the Masters. In three appearances at the Masters, Watney has posted three top-20 finishes, including a solo seventh last year. While he may have fired a final round 81 that took him from the 54-hole lead at last year's PGA Championship into a T18, it could ultimately be a good learning experience for the 30-year old. After all there is some precedent for that. While not in the same year, Mike Weir went from a share of the 54-hole lead at the 1999 PGA Championship. After a final round 80, he had to settle for a T10.
Anthony Kim, 66-1 to win the U.S. Open. After wrist surgery last year, Kim has not gotten off to the start this year he was probably hoping for. But, for me, it's hard to ignore his scintillating 65 in the final round of last year's Masters that propelled him to a solo 3rd place finish. Simply put, he has major championship chops and he's performed well in the American national championship, never finishing worse than T26. He also has a win at Congressional, firing a final round 65 to win the AT&T National in 2008.
Steve Stricker, 50-1 to win the Masters. At Augusta National, you have to be able to do a lot of things well, but it seems like if you do a couple of things exceptionally -- your putting and wedge play -- you can compete. Stricker has long been known as a tremendous putter and wedge player, as evidenced this year by his ability to play nearly a third of a stroke under par when facing approach shots of 50-125 yards. He's been cut at the Masters five times, but whenever he does make the cut he finishes in the top-40 and twice in the top-10.
Y.E. Yang, 100-1 to win the Masters, 40-1 to win a major. How's this for stat: in five events this year, the '09 PGA Champion already has one more top-10 (three) than he had last year. It's pretty hard to believe he struggled the way he did last year, given how unflappable he was in yanking that title away from Tiger Woods as Hazeltine. He obviously has the type of game and demeanour to win a major title and he finished T8 at Augusta last year.
Bubba Watson, 50-1 to win the Masters. It's amazing how much difference a little confidence can make but in Watson's case, it's made all the difference. After a breakthrough victory last year he has: contended in a major, made the Ryder Cup team, won again and made a serious run during a big-field WGC event. He's only played the Masters twice but he's never missed the cut. A lot of holes at Augusta set up for a right to left shot and you can't help but think he can do some damage on those par fives.
Charl Schwartzel, 66-1 top-20 in all four majors. It might seem a little out there for a guy who has never seriously contended in a major, at least, until you look at his 2010 results in the majors: T30, T16, T14, T18. He's got a lot of game and at age 26 is poised for a good career. He already boasts seven career professional wins with with three in the last 15 months.
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
WGC Cadillac Championship Preview and Picks
Course vitals
Yardage: 7,266
Par: 72
Designed by: Dick Wilson (1961).
Bunkers: 110
Water Hazards: 11
Green speeds: 11.8-feet.
2010 difficulty rank: 34
Defending Champion: Ernie Els
Course record: Stephen Ames, 61
Key Back nine holes
603-yard par five 12th: It may not be the glorious eagle opportunity that some par-fives are, but it's certainly a coin flip birdie. Last year -- while playing 0.342 strokes below par -- there was just one eagle and 106 birdies. There was only 10 bogeys, one double and one triple.
467-yard par four 18th: The infamous Blue Monster actually ranked as the second hardest hole on the course last year. The real difficulty comes from the tee considering the wind is most often into tee or a crosswind, making it difficult to find the fairway. There was more than double the bogeys or worse (76) than birdies (36).
Foursome Picks
Full disclosure: I couldn't decide whether I liked Paul Casey or Nick Watney more this week, so I turned my foursome plus longshot into a six-pack.
Nick Watney, 22-1: You'd be hard pressed to find a player hotter this year than Watney, at least without having won a tournament. He's posted no worse than a T9 -- at the match play -- and is cumulative 34-under par in his three stroke play events so far. He's also played well here with a runner-up finish in 2009 and a T26 last year. He's had just one round over par -- an opening one-over 73 last year -- in his eight rounds.
Paul Casey, 25-1: Posted a T6 here last year and has had marginal success at Doral over the years with a T9 in '07 and a T8 in '03. Aside from a second round exit at the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship where he often plays well, he's been on form this year and picked up a win at the end of January at the Volvo Golf Champions in Bahrain.
Charl Schwartzel, 30-1: Was the runner-up to Ernie Els here last year after sharing the 54-hole lead with him and has been playing well early in 2011. He defended his title at the Joburg Open and hasn't posted a result worse than T17 -- his finish at the Match play.
Bill Haas, 40-1: Was a solid T6 here last year and has posted no finish worse than T33 this year, including three straight top-10s to start the season.
Jim Furyk, 55-1: Admittedly the 2010 Fed Ex Cup champion has not gotten off to a good start this year. But he has been solid at Doral over the years. In the four years it has been a WGC event, he's posted: T35, T2, 3, T37. Add in the non-WGC years and his record is even better with a win -- in 2000 -- another 2nd, a T8 and a T9. He got off to a pretty slow start last year as well -- granted not quite as bad as this year -- but it was once the Florida swing started that his season really kicked into gear, snapping a 32-month winless drought at the Transitions Championship.
Louis Oosthuizen, 100-1: On the negative side, he's played here three times and broken par just five times. On the plus side, three of those came last year when he posted a T20. He's also still buoyed by the confidence of his resounding victory at last year's open championship and already has a win this year at the Africa Open.
Puerto Rico Open Picks
Brendan de Jonge, 25-1: T3 here last year.
Angel Cabrera, 45-1: Two-time major champion. 'Nuff said.
John Merrick, 40-1: T68 last year after posting T6 and T13 in the first two years.
Kris Blanks, 66-1: Solo second last year.
Longshot: Paul Stankowski, 100-1. Improved each year he's played here -- from cut to T21 to T12.
Monday, March 7, 2011
Honda Classic Tournament Backspin
HE HASN'T ALWAYS been the most popular player on the PGA Tour, but given the way his last few years have gone you have to feel good for Rory Sabbatini getting back in the winner's circle. When viewed with the advantage of hindsight, his major transgressions don't really seem that bad. The first was in 2005 when he walked to the 18th hole before his playing partner -- Ben Crane -- finished playing. As he's won on Tour and gained notoriety, we hear more and more about how slow Crane plays and pundits are always railing on the need for faster play. And, well, his comments about Tiger Woods being "more beatable than ever" may have been slightly premature, but they certainly ring true now, don't they? Put it all aside and this is a guy who beat skin cancer and recently went through another trying time when his wife had complications giving birth to their third child. It's his sixth win on the PGA Tour which is not an insignificant number when you consider that it ties him with the likes of Stewart Cink, Sandy Lyle and Jose Maria Olazabal.
Where it was won: Sabbatini really had to grind all day on Sunday. His 31 putts were the most he carded all week, but it was still good enough to pick up the victory. He really took command -- fittingly in the middle of the infamous Bear Trap -- by rolling in a 16-foot birdie putt at the par-four 16th.
Shots of the week
Yeah, it's pure laziness this week with the top five shots as decided by the PGA Tour. Boom, baby.
Stat of the week: Though Sabbatini only finished T5 in the field with 15 birdies, it should come as no surprise that he limited his lost shots with no double bogeys or worse and near the bottom of the field with just six bogeys.
How I did:
-Gary Woodland, T6
-Robert Allenby, T21
-Fredrik Jacobsen, T29
-Jason Dufner, T51
-Camilo Villegas, Cut
Early look at next week
-Another two tournament week and we'll have picks for both
-Going to start a couple of new features this week. The Futures Market, a look at the futures wager board and the Friday Fourball, a quick-hit foursome of opinion.
-Who I like: Martin Kaymer, Charl Schwartzel, Nick Watney
Where it was won: Sabbatini really had to grind all day on Sunday. His 31 putts were the most he carded all week, but it was still good enough to pick up the victory. He really took command -- fittingly in the middle of the infamous Bear Trap -- by rolling in a 16-foot birdie putt at the par-four 16th.
Shots of the week
Yeah, it's pure laziness this week with the top five shots as decided by the PGA Tour. Boom, baby.
Stat of the week: Though Sabbatini only finished T5 in the field with 15 birdies, it should come as no surprise that he limited his lost shots with no double bogeys or worse and near the bottom of the field with just six bogeys.
How I did:
-Gary Woodland, T6
-Robert Allenby, T21
-Fredrik Jacobsen, T29
-Jason Dufner, T51
-Camilo Villegas, Cut
Early look at next week
-Another two tournament week and we'll have picks for both
-Going to start a couple of new features this week. The Futures Market, a look at the futures wager board and the Friday Fourball, a quick-hit foursome of opinion.
-Who I like: Martin Kaymer, Charl Schwartzel, Nick Watney
Saturday, March 5, 2011
Double Dip/Trunk Slammers: Honda Classic Edition
WITH RORY SABBATINI'S commanding five stroke lead heading into Sunday's final round, there's some pretty good value floating out there. The problem is there are only nine players under par in total, so for the most part somebody either has to go historically low or Sabbatini needs to get out to the same kind of start Dustin Johnson did at least year's U.S. Open. That is, six-over in the first four holes.
Gary Woodland, 20-1. It wouldn't be a true double dip if I didn't back somebody now that I was at the beginning of the tournament. More than that though, he's one of only three players to be within six shots of the lead and he's play has been pretty solid all week. He's recorded just four bogeys and two double bogeys to go with 11 birdies in a tournament where the bogey or worse to birdie or better ratio is nearly 2 to 1 (1.897 to be exact) with 1,548 bogeys or worse compared with 816 birdies and eagles.
Charles Howell III, 40-1. It's been a while since his last victory -- more than four years, in fact, out-dueling Phil Mickelson in a playoff at the Northern Trust Open -- but his play has been showing signs of coming around recently. Going back to last year's Fall Series, he has posted the following results: T23, T6, T18, T9, T68, T13, T14, Cut, T66, T13. He's been steady this week too, with seven birdies, three bogeys and one triple bogey.
Jeff Overton, 80-1. Why not? He would have won last year if Stuart Appleby didn't shoot a 59 in the final round to beat him. Maybe he can turn some similar magic -- okay, maybe not a 59 -- to win his first PGA Tour event.
Trunk Slammers
Jamie Lovemark. Much heralded rookie has now made just one cut in -- a T58 at Torrey Pines -- six starts.
Anthony Kim. Standing on the tee at the sixth hole -- his 15th -- Kim was at one-over, well inside the cut line. A roller coaster that featured two double bogeys, a bogey and a birdie gave him the weekend off.
Angel Cabrera. It's been a rough couple of years for the former U.S. Open and Masters Champ. He has just two top-10s in his last 23 PGA Tour starts and has now missed the cut in back-to-back tournaments.
Vijay Singh. He was very much a vogue pick to win this tournament given his recent success -- two top-fives in the last three -- but he never got anything going this week, recording eight bogeys and a double bogey to go with just one birdie.
Adam Scott. After shooting a seven-over 77 on Thursday that included a quintuple bogey eight at the par-three 15th, Scott probably figured the worst was behind. He would be incorrect, of course, carding a 12-over 82 that featured six bogeys, a double bogey and a quadruple bogey. In total he played the four par-threes at 11 over par despite the fact that he registered a par on five of those holes.
Mike Weir. It truly is sad to see the current state of the '03 Masters Champ. He's now missed the cut in four of his five tournaments this year, all while playing on a medical exemption. Even his lone made cut, he finished T77, or in other words, dead last. In 270 holes of play now, he has registered just 40 birdies while also carding 50 bogeys, 14 doubles and two triples. Going back to last year's RBC Canadian Open -- his first tournament after injuring his elbow at the Open Championship -- he's been cut seven times, finished dead last and T55 in a tournament with no cut. And when you add up his totals from those four tournaments with five this year it looks like this: one eagle, 64 birdies, 85 bogeys, 16 doubles and two triples in 450 holes.
Trunk Slammer of the week: Camilo Villegas. The reigning champion -- who won by five shots over Anthony Kim last year -- continues his epically disasterous 2011. He's now played the weekend in just one of six tournaments with two missed cuts, a DQ, a WD and a first round departure at last week's WGC Accenture Match Play Championship. For the week he had more double bogeys (five) than birdies (three), a stark contrast to last year when he had no doubles and 23 birdies.
Gary Woodland, 20-1. It wouldn't be a true double dip if I didn't back somebody now that I was at the beginning of the tournament. More than that though, he's one of only three players to be within six shots of the lead and he's play has been pretty solid all week. He's recorded just four bogeys and two double bogeys to go with 11 birdies in a tournament where the bogey or worse to birdie or better ratio is nearly 2 to 1 (1.897 to be exact) with 1,548 bogeys or worse compared with 816 birdies and eagles.
Charles Howell III, 40-1. It's been a while since his last victory -- more than four years, in fact, out-dueling Phil Mickelson in a playoff at the Northern Trust Open -- but his play has been showing signs of coming around recently. Going back to last year's Fall Series, he has posted the following results: T23, T6, T18, T9, T68, T13, T14, Cut, T66, T13. He's been steady this week too, with seven birdies, three bogeys and one triple bogey.
Jeff Overton, 80-1. Why not? He would have won last year if Stuart Appleby didn't shoot a 59 in the final round to beat him. Maybe he can turn some similar magic -- okay, maybe not a 59 -- to win his first PGA Tour event.
Trunk Slammers
Jamie Lovemark. Much heralded rookie has now made just one cut in -- a T58 at Torrey Pines -- six starts.
Anthony Kim. Standing on the tee at the sixth hole -- his 15th -- Kim was at one-over, well inside the cut line. A roller coaster that featured two double bogeys, a bogey and a birdie gave him the weekend off.
Angel Cabrera. It's been a rough couple of years for the former U.S. Open and Masters Champ. He has just two top-10s in his last 23 PGA Tour starts and has now missed the cut in back-to-back tournaments.
Vijay Singh. He was very much a vogue pick to win this tournament given his recent success -- two top-fives in the last three -- but he never got anything going this week, recording eight bogeys and a double bogey to go with just one birdie.
Adam Scott. After shooting a seven-over 77 on Thursday that included a quintuple bogey eight at the par-three 15th, Scott probably figured the worst was behind. He would be incorrect, of course, carding a 12-over 82 that featured six bogeys, a double bogey and a quadruple bogey. In total he played the four par-threes at 11 over par despite the fact that he registered a par on five of those holes.
Mike Weir. It truly is sad to see the current state of the '03 Masters Champ. He's now missed the cut in four of his five tournaments this year, all while playing on a medical exemption. Even his lone made cut, he finished T77, or in other words, dead last. In 270 holes of play now, he has registered just 40 birdies while also carding 50 bogeys, 14 doubles and two triples. Going back to last year's RBC Canadian Open -- his first tournament after injuring his elbow at the Open Championship -- he's been cut seven times, finished dead last and T55 in a tournament with no cut. And when you add up his totals from those four tournaments with five this year it looks like this: one eagle, 64 birdies, 85 bogeys, 16 doubles and two triples in 450 holes.
Trunk Slammer of the week: Camilo Villegas. The reigning champion -- who won by five shots over Anthony Kim last year -- continues his epically disasterous 2011. He's now played the weekend in just one of six tournaments with two missed cuts, a DQ, a WD and a first round departure at last week's WGC Accenture Match Play Championship. For the week he had more double bogeys (five) than birdies (three), a stark contrast to last year when he had no doubles and 23 birdies.
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Honda Classic Preview and Picks
THE BUILD UP to the Honda Classic -- at least since it moved to the PGA National Champion course in 2007 -- is always about the famed Bear Trap. They always talk about how it's one of, if not the, most difficult finishing stretches on tour. You could argue the semantics about how a finishing stretch should include the actual final hole, but let's worry about that another day. The truth is, it's a pretty menacing three hole span. In the four years the tournament has been here, the Bear Trap has played an average of 0.767 strokes over par. For the average player that works out to be a difference of about three strokes over the course of four rounds. I mention this now because it's pretty well assumed that you have to play well on these three holes -- a theme you'll certainly see in my picks. And as a result, the holes you think would appear in the key back nine holes will not.
Course vitals
PGA National, Champion course
Yardage: 7,158
Par: 70
Designed by: Tom Fazio (1981), re-designed by Jack Nicklaus (2001).
Bunkers: 78
Water Hazards: 26
Green speeds: 10.6-feet.
2010 difficulty rank: 2 of 52
Course record: 64, Luke Donald (2008) and Greg Chalmers (2009).
Defending Champion: Camilo Villegas
Foursome Picks
Robert Allenby, 33-1. He missed the cut here last year, but in the first three years for the event to be played at PGA National he's post a pair of T5s and a T4. Take a first round defeat last week out of the equation and his game seems to be rounding into form, posting a T4 at Riviera after missing the cut twice and then finished T63 in Phoenix.
Fredrik Jaconsen, 60-1. In two appearances at PGA national, Jacobsen has posted two top-10s (a T5 and a T6). He's also even par through eight rounds playing the Bear Trap.
Camilo Villegas, 66-1. He really hasn't started 2011 the way he likely would have hoped (we'll have more on that tomorrow) but it's hard to argue with success. Of course he won here last year, but he also lost in a playoff in 2007. He may have missed the cut in '09, but he's carded eight rounds in the 60s in his 14 tournament rounds here. He's a local resident -- living just 10 miles away -- and he is also even par for his career playing the Bear Trap.
Jason Dufner, 80-1. He may still wish he was able to close on his first career PGA Tour playoff when he lost to Mark Wilson in a playoff at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Still his play this year has been solid, although not spectacular. In three appearances here, he's posted a T40, T9 and T13, and is just two-over par on the Bear Trap.
Longshot: Gary Woodland, 125-1. Prior to this year he had one top-25 finish in 26 starts on the PGA Tour. He already has two top-10s this season, including his runner-up finish at the Bob Hope Classic. He made the cut here last year, but was a victim of the MDF rule. But in the three rounds he played, he was even par on the Bear Trap.
Course vitals
PGA National, Champion course
Yardage: 7,158
Par: 70
Designed by: Tom Fazio (1981), re-designed by Jack Nicklaus (2001).
Bunkers: 78
Water Hazards: 26
Green speeds: 10.6-feet.
2010 difficulty rank: 2 of 52
Course record: 64, Luke Donald (2008) and Greg Chalmers (2009).
Defending Champion: Camilo Villegas
Foursome Picks
Robert Allenby, 33-1. He missed the cut here last year, but in the first three years for the event to be played at PGA National he's post a pair of T5s and a T4. Take a first round defeat last week out of the equation and his game seems to be rounding into form, posting a T4 at Riviera after missing the cut twice and then finished T63 in Phoenix.
Fredrik Jaconsen, 60-1. In two appearances at PGA national, Jacobsen has posted two top-10s (a T5 and a T6). He's also even par through eight rounds playing the Bear Trap.
Camilo Villegas, 66-1. He really hasn't started 2011 the way he likely would have hoped (we'll have more on that tomorrow) but it's hard to argue with success. Of course he won here last year, but he also lost in a playoff in 2007. He may have missed the cut in '09, but he's carded eight rounds in the 60s in his 14 tournament rounds here. He's a local resident -- living just 10 miles away -- and he is also even par for his career playing the Bear Trap.
Jason Dufner, 80-1. He may still wish he was able to close on his first career PGA Tour playoff when he lost to Mark Wilson in a playoff at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Still his play this year has been solid, although not spectacular. In three appearances here, he's posted a T40, T9 and T13, and is just two-over par on the Bear Trap.
Longshot: Gary Woodland, 125-1. Prior to this year he had one top-25 finish in 26 starts on the PGA Tour. He already has two top-10s this season, including his runner-up finish at the Bob Hope Classic. He made the cut here last year, but was a victim of the MDF rule. But in the three rounds he played, he was even par on the Bear Trap.
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Tournament Backspin: WGC Accenture Match Play Edition
SECURING VICTORY IN a tournament doesn't necessarily guarantee that you were the best player during the week. That sentiment can be multiplied when you take the volatility of match play into account, but when Luke Donald defeated Martin Kaymer three and two to claim the WGC Accenture Match Play Championship he left no doubt -- he was the best player in the tournament. So thorough was his dominance that he led after 81 of the 89 holes he played and never once played the 18th hole. It's his first victory on American soil since the Honda Classic in 2006.
Where it was won and lost: In a tournament format where the championship literally comes down to two players, you can really pinpoint a few spots that had a profound impact on the outcome. While generally you would prefer to be closer with your approach, sometimes in match play it can be an advantage to play first and put the pressure on your opponent. At the 11th Kaymer knocked his approach to a tidy five-feet, while Donald managed to get to eight-feet. Donald rolled in his birdie putt and Kaymer missed his -- a big surprise given his track record of pressure putts and that he had made more than 90 per cent of his putts under 10 feet for the week.
Shots of the week
Stat of the week: Donald won 41 holes and lost just 16 and set a number of records in the process: he was the first player to win without ever trailing in a match; his 89 holes played were the fewest by a winner and he was the first to win without playing 18.
How I did:
Rickie Fowler - third round
Charl Schwartzel - second round
Jeff Overton - first round
Bill Haas - first round
Ross Fisher - second round
Early look at next week
-Villegas defends at the Honda. Why has his 2011 started off so poorly? We'll examine
-Who I like: Robert Allenby, JB Holmes, Marc Leishman
Where it was won and lost: In a tournament format where the championship literally comes down to two players, you can really pinpoint a few spots that had a profound impact on the outcome. While generally you would prefer to be closer with your approach, sometimes in match play it can be an advantage to play first and put the pressure on your opponent. At the 11th Kaymer knocked his approach to a tidy five-feet, while Donald managed to get to eight-feet. Donald rolled in his birdie putt and Kaymer missed his -- a big surprise given his track record of pressure putts and that he had made more than 90 per cent of his putts under 10 feet for the week.
Shots of the week
Stat of the week: Donald won 41 holes and lost just 16 and set a number of records in the process: he was the first player to win without ever trailing in a match; his 89 holes played were the fewest by a winner and he was the first to win without playing 18.
How I did:
Rickie Fowler - third round
Charl Schwartzel - second round
Jeff Overton - first round
Bill Haas - first round
Ross Fisher - second round
Early look at next week
-Villegas defends at the Honda. Why has his 2011 started off so poorly? We'll examine
-Who I like: Robert Allenby, JB Holmes, Marc Leishman
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