WITH RORY SABBATINI'S commanding five stroke lead heading into Sunday's final round, there's some pretty good value floating out there. The problem is there are only nine players under par in total, so for the most part somebody either has to go historically low or Sabbatini needs to get out to the same kind of start Dustin Johnson did at least year's U.S. Open. That is, six-over in the first four holes.
Gary Woodland, 20-1. It wouldn't be a true double dip if I didn't back somebody now that I was at the beginning of the tournament. More than that though, he's one of only three players to be within six shots of the lead and he's play has been pretty solid all week. He's recorded just four bogeys and two double bogeys to go with 11 birdies in a tournament where the bogey or worse to birdie or better ratio is nearly 2 to 1 (1.897 to be exact) with 1,548 bogeys or worse compared with 816 birdies and eagles.
Charles Howell III, 40-1. It's been a while since his last victory -- more than four years, in fact, out-dueling Phil Mickelson in a playoff at the Northern Trust Open -- but his play has been showing signs of coming around recently. Going back to last year's Fall Series, he has posted the following results: T23, T6, T18, T9, T68, T13, T14, Cut, T66, T13. He's been steady this week too, with seven birdies, three bogeys and one triple bogey.
Jeff Overton, 80-1. Why not? He would have won last year if Stuart Appleby didn't shoot a 59 in the final round to beat him. Maybe he can turn some similar magic -- okay, maybe not a 59 -- to win his first PGA Tour event.
Trunk Slammers
Jamie Lovemark. Much heralded rookie has now made just one cut in -- a T58 at Torrey Pines -- six starts.
Anthony Kim. Standing on the tee at the sixth hole -- his 15th -- Kim was at one-over, well inside the cut line. A roller coaster that featured two double bogeys, a bogey and a birdie gave him the weekend off.
Angel Cabrera. It's been a rough couple of years for the former U.S. Open and Masters Champ. He has just two top-10s in his last 23 PGA Tour starts and has now missed the cut in back-to-back tournaments.
Vijay Singh. He was very much a vogue pick to win this tournament given his recent success -- two top-fives in the last three -- but he never got anything going this week, recording eight bogeys and a double bogey to go with just one birdie.
Adam Scott. After shooting a seven-over 77 on Thursday that included a quintuple bogey eight at the par-three 15th, Scott probably figured the worst was behind. He would be incorrect, of course, carding a 12-over 82 that featured six bogeys, a double bogey and a quadruple bogey. In total he played the four par-threes at 11 over par despite the fact that he registered a par on five of those holes.
Mike Weir. It truly is sad to see the current state of the '03 Masters Champ. He's now missed the cut in four of his five tournaments this year, all while playing on a medical exemption. Even his lone made cut, he finished T77, or in other words, dead last. In 270 holes of play now, he has registered just 40 birdies while also carding 50 bogeys, 14 doubles and two triples. Going back to last year's RBC Canadian Open -- his first tournament after injuring his elbow at the Open Championship -- he's been cut seven times, finished dead last and T55 in a tournament with no cut. And when you add up his totals from those four tournaments with five this year it looks like this: one eagle, 64 birdies, 85 bogeys, 16 doubles and two triples in 450 holes.
Trunk Slammer of the week: Camilo Villegas. The reigning champion -- who won by five shots over Anthony Kim last year -- continues his epically disasterous 2011. He's now played the weekend in just one of six tournaments with two missed cuts, a DQ, a WD and a first round departure at last week's WGC Accenture Match Play Championship. For the week he had more double bogeys (five) than birdies (three), a stark contrast to last year when he had no doubles and 23 birdies.
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