SECURING VICTORY IN a tournament doesn't necessarily guarantee that you were the best player during the week. That sentiment can be multiplied when you take the volatility of match play into account, but when Luke Donald defeated Martin Kaymer three and two to claim the WGC Accenture Match Play Championship he left no doubt -- he was the best player in the tournament. So thorough was his dominance that he led after 81 of the 89 holes he played and never once played the 18th hole. It's his first victory on American soil since the Honda Classic in 2006.
Where it was won and lost: In a tournament format where the championship literally comes down to two players, you can really pinpoint a few spots that had a profound impact on the outcome. While generally you would prefer to be closer with your approach, sometimes in match play it can be an advantage to play first and put the pressure on your opponent. At the 11th Kaymer knocked his approach to a tidy five-feet, while Donald managed to get to eight-feet. Donald rolled in his birdie putt and Kaymer missed his -- a big surprise given his track record of pressure putts and that he had made more than 90 per cent of his putts under 10 feet for the week.
Shots of the week
Stat of the week: Donald won 41 holes and lost just 16 and set a number of records in the process: he was the first player to win without ever trailing in a match; his 89 holes played were the fewest by a winner and he was the first to win without playing 18.
How I did:
Rickie Fowler - third round
Charl Schwartzel - second round
Jeff Overton - first round
Bill Haas - first round
Ross Fisher - second round
Early look at next week
-Villegas defends at the Honda. Why has his 2011 started off so poorly? We'll examine
-Who I like: Robert Allenby, JB Holmes, Marc Leishman
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Bubba Watson: More than a driver
THERE WAS A time when Bubba Watson was thought of as nothing more than a guy who could hit the ball a mile.
Even after he won last year at the Travelers Championship that philosophy seemed to persist.
Not until he was in the hunt on Sunday at a major championship -- ultimately falling in a playoff to Martin Kaymer at last year's PGA Championship -- did many relent that maybe, just maybe, he had the chops to be a legit player on tour.
After winning at the Farmers Insurance Open and then making it all the way to the semi finals of the WGC Accenture Match Play Championship -- being felled yet again by Kaymer -- you can be all but assured that the impression of Bubba being a hitter instead of a golfer had been all but eradicated.
Here's the funny thing: he has always been a shot-maker.
Sure, you can allow his prodigious length off the tee -- and even the bright pink driver shaft he uses -- to blind you to some facts, but there may not be a single player in the world more willing to experiment with different shot types and ball flights.
Need a gentle draw against the wind and there may be players more equipped to play that shot.
However, if you need a big banana slice with a driver off the deck or low running hook three-iron, Bubba's your man.
He currently leads the tour in driving distance -- 314.8 yards per drive -- but he's also third in greens in regulation at 76.8 per cent.
Compare those numbers to five years ago when he averaged 319.6 yards off the tee, but hit only 66.74 greens in reg.
That's basically eight more holes per tournament where Watson has a birdie putt of any length instead of him scrambling for par.
The other thing that is apparent to all that watch him now, but can't possibly show up in a stat is his confidence level.
So Watson is certainly not a flash in the pan. The first three days he was playing maybe the best golf of anyone in the tournament not named Luke Donald.
In the first three rounds he won 20 holes while his opponents -- Bill Haas and Mark Wilson have been two of the hottest players early in the season and Geoff Ogilvy has the all-time best record in this tournament -- won only five.
But on Saturday -- in both the quarter-finals and semi finals -- he really had to grind.
After the 10th hole against J.B. Holmes in the quarter-final he was five-down. But he rallied to win.
And though he ultimately fell to Kaymer, he was there every step of the way, stride for stride with the best player in the world.
It's hard to think he won't be in that position more and more in the coming months and years.
Quick thought on tomorrow's final: It may very well be a battle of the two best players on the world. Kaymer officially ascends to top of the mountain with his performance, but based on the way he's played in recent months it was only a matter of time. Meanwhile Donald -- while he hasn't won anywhere since last May -- had one of the most consistent seasons of anyone in the world last year. In fact, he won more money than anyone.
Even after he won last year at the Travelers Championship that philosophy seemed to persist.
Not until he was in the hunt on Sunday at a major championship -- ultimately falling in a playoff to Martin Kaymer at last year's PGA Championship -- did many relent that maybe, just maybe, he had the chops to be a legit player on tour.
After winning at the Farmers Insurance Open and then making it all the way to the semi finals of the WGC Accenture Match Play Championship -- being felled yet again by Kaymer -- you can be all but assured that the impression of Bubba being a hitter instead of a golfer had been all but eradicated.
Here's the funny thing: he has always been a shot-maker.
Sure, you can allow his prodigious length off the tee -- and even the bright pink driver shaft he uses -- to blind you to some facts, but there may not be a single player in the world more willing to experiment with different shot types and ball flights.
Need a gentle draw against the wind and there may be players more equipped to play that shot.
However, if you need a big banana slice with a driver off the deck or low running hook three-iron, Bubba's your man.
He currently leads the tour in driving distance -- 314.8 yards per drive -- but he's also third in greens in regulation at 76.8 per cent.
Compare those numbers to five years ago when he averaged 319.6 yards off the tee, but hit only 66.74 greens in reg.
That's basically eight more holes per tournament where Watson has a birdie putt of any length instead of him scrambling for par.
The other thing that is apparent to all that watch him now, but can't possibly show up in a stat is his confidence level.
So Watson is certainly not a flash in the pan. The first three days he was playing maybe the best golf of anyone in the tournament not named Luke Donald.
In the first three rounds he won 20 holes while his opponents -- Bill Haas and Mark Wilson have been two of the hottest players early in the season and Geoff Ogilvy has the all-time best record in this tournament -- won only five.
But on Saturday -- in both the quarter-finals and semi finals -- he really had to grind.
After the 10th hole against J.B. Holmes in the quarter-final he was five-down. But he rallied to win.
And though he ultimately fell to Kaymer, he was there every step of the way, stride for stride with the best player in the world.
It's hard to think he won't be in that position more and more in the coming months and years.
Quick thought on tomorrow's final: It may very well be a battle of the two best players on the world. Kaymer officially ascends to top of the mountain with his performance, but based on the way he's played in recent months it was only a matter of time. Meanwhile Donald -- while he hasn't won anywhere since last May -- had one of the most consistent seasons of anyone in the world last year. In fact, he won more money than anyone.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Trunk Slammers: WGC Match Play Day 1
ON A DAY when seven matches went to extra holes -- a tournament record -- it was the last one of the day that drew all the attention.
And depending on your perspective of the current state of Tiger Woods it is another story arc that supports his precipitous decline or his eventual resurgence.
One thing is for sure, it was more of what we've seen from Woods in recent months -- inconsistency.
In total, he lost seven holes and four of them -- if you include his concession on the first extra hole -- were lost with his opponent making par.
And anytime one of the greatest players of all time -- arguably the greatest -- it will lead Trunk Slammers.
Jones Bracket
Anthony Kim. He opened his round with two bogeys, a double and a par and only found himself two-down. Still, he couldn't get anything going from there and was closed out 5 & 4.
Francesco Molinari. It took until the 14th for him to win a hole and by then it was too little too late. With his wife having recently given birth to their first child, it seems likely that he's not taking the loss all that hardly.
Steve Stricker. Since winning the event in 2001, Stricker's results in five appearances: first round, first round, third round, second round, first round.
Hogan Bracket
Anders Hansen. He had more than his share of opportunities to put the match away. He held a three-up match heading to 14, but lost three of the last five holes to send it to extras. Both players played the first three playoff holes at two-over before Kuchar finally wrapped the match with a birdie at the fourth.
Ian Poulter. Jones Stricker and Jeff Maggert as the only defending champions to get knocked out in the first round. The loss is compounded by the fact that he had a two-up lead standing on the 15th tee.
Snead Bracket
Tiger Woods. He's still the most successful competitor in this event. It's just the second time in 11 appearances that he's gone home after round one.
Camilo Villegas. After advancing to the semi finals and then winning the consolation match last year, the rough start to 2011 continues for Villegas. With a DQ and WD already on his record this year it marks the third tournament in five where he has only played one day. We may have to explore this topic in depth a little more later.
Bill Haas. He was very much a trendy pick to make a deep run this week -- including by this guy -- especially considering the issues Bubba Watson had over the weekend. He was steady, but not spectacular in his opening nine with nine pars. Unfortunately Watson opened with four birdies and a bogey to hold a three-up lead.
Dustin Johnson. Was one-down after ten holes but won three of the next five to hold a two-up lead with three to play. He then lost three of the next four -- including the first playoff hole -- two of which came as the result of a bogey. It gives him three first round losses in three appearances.
Player Bracket
Jim Furyk. Only six of the 18 holes were halved in his match with Ryan Palmer and though he battled, it makes five first round losses in 11 appearances for the 2010 Fed Ex Cup Champion.
Zach Johnson. He won four straight holes -- 11-14 -- to square the match and then promptly lost two of the next three. He finished third in 2006 but in six other appearances he has four first round losses and two second rounds.
Trunk Slammer of the Week: Jeff Overton. It pain me to have to do this since I had Overton making a deep run this week, but after twice holding a three-up lead -- including after the first three holes -- there really couldn't be any other choice. The difference for him was the stretch from the seventh to 11th where he card three fives and two sixes and lost all five holes. He battled back to square the match and then lost on the first extra hole.
Must see matches today
Lee Westwood vs. Nick Watney
Matteo Manassero vs. Charl Schwartzel
Phil Mickelson vs. Rickie Fowler
Graeme McDowell vs. Ross Fisher
Martin Kaymer vs. Justin Rose
Mayakoba Golf Classic picks
Since I broke down the entire bracket of the Match play, I'm going quick-pick style for the week's other PGA Tour event.
Jerry Kelly, 25-1.
David Toms, 25-1.
Kevin Stadler, 50-1.
Chris Riley, 80-1.
Scott Verplank, 100-1.
And depending on your perspective of the current state of Tiger Woods it is another story arc that supports his precipitous decline or his eventual resurgence.
One thing is for sure, it was more of what we've seen from Woods in recent months -- inconsistency.
In total, he lost seven holes and four of them -- if you include his concession on the first extra hole -- were lost with his opponent making par.
And anytime one of the greatest players of all time -- arguably the greatest -- it will lead Trunk Slammers.
Jones Bracket
Anthony Kim. He opened his round with two bogeys, a double and a par and only found himself two-down. Still, he couldn't get anything going from there and was closed out 5 & 4.
Francesco Molinari. It took until the 14th for him to win a hole and by then it was too little too late. With his wife having recently given birth to their first child, it seems likely that he's not taking the loss all that hardly.
Steve Stricker. Since winning the event in 2001, Stricker's results in five appearances: first round, first round, third round, second round, first round.
Hogan Bracket
Anders Hansen. He had more than his share of opportunities to put the match away. He held a three-up match heading to 14, but lost three of the last five holes to send it to extras. Both players played the first three playoff holes at two-over before Kuchar finally wrapped the match with a birdie at the fourth.
Ian Poulter. Jones Stricker and Jeff Maggert as the only defending champions to get knocked out in the first round. The loss is compounded by the fact that he had a two-up lead standing on the 15th tee.
Snead Bracket
Tiger Woods. He's still the most successful competitor in this event. It's just the second time in 11 appearances that he's gone home after round one.
Camilo Villegas. After advancing to the semi finals and then winning the consolation match last year, the rough start to 2011 continues for Villegas. With a DQ and WD already on his record this year it marks the third tournament in five where he has only played one day. We may have to explore this topic in depth a little more later.
Bill Haas. He was very much a trendy pick to make a deep run this week -- including by this guy -- especially considering the issues Bubba Watson had over the weekend. He was steady, but not spectacular in his opening nine with nine pars. Unfortunately Watson opened with four birdies and a bogey to hold a three-up lead.
Dustin Johnson. Was one-down after ten holes but won three of the next five to hold a two-up lead with three to play. He then lost three of the next four -- including the first playoff hole -- two of which came as the result of a bogey. It gives him three first round losses in three appearances.
Player Bracket
Jim Furyk. Only six of the 18 holes were halved in his match with Ryan Palmer and though he battled, it makes five first round losses in 11 appearances for the 2010 Fed Ex Cup Champion.
Zach Johnson. He won four straight holes -- 11-14 -- to square the match and then promptly lost two of the next three. He finished third in 2006 but in six other appearances he has four first round losses and two second rounds.
Trunk Slammer of the Week: Jeff Overton. It pain me to have to do this since I had Overton making a deep run this week, but after twice holding a three-up lead -- including after the first three holes -- there really couldn't be any other choice. The difference for him was the stretch from the seventh to 11th where he card three fives and two sixes and lost all five holes. He battled back to square the match and then lost on the first extra hole.
Must see matches today
Lee Westwood vs. Nick Watney
Matteo Manassero vs. Charl Schwartzel
Phil Mickelson vs. Rickie Fowler
Graeme McDowell vs. Ross Fisher
Martin Kaymer vs. Justin Rose
Mayakoba Golf Classic picks
Since I broke down the entire bracket of the Match play, I'm going quick-pick style for the week's other PGA Tour event.
Jerry Kelly, 25-1.
David Toms, 25-1.
Kevin Stadler, 50-1.
Chris Riley, 80-1.
Scott Verplank, 100-1.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
WGC Accenture Match Play Championship Preview and Picks
IN THE INTEREST of full disclosure, I should get this out of the way right off the bat. I love me some match play.
I do.
Aside from the four majors and The Players, this might be my favourite tournament of the year. In fact, I like it so much that it could actually challenge some of the majors as far as my intrigue goes.
I really can't understand why there wouldn't be more match play events during the year. Having said that, I do know that once it gets toward the end of the event this format is tough on the broadcasters.
Take the '08 tournament, for example. In the 36-hole final Tiger Woods waxed Stewart Cink to the tune of 8&7. The event was so anti-climatic that by the time they got to a point where the action is normally picking up, the outcome was all but assured.
This year they've taken steps to combat that. Instead of playing the quarter-finals and semi finals on Saturday with a 36-hole final and 18-hole consolation match, participants will play an 18-hole semi final on Sunday morning with an 18-hole final to follow. Definitely better for TV viewing.
With all that said though, I think it's an extremely compelling format and as far as getting more match play on TV, to me, the answer is simple. Take the approach poker did.
Think about it. How often do you see poker on TV? All the time.
And how well do you know some of the players? I could make a legitimate argument that poker has done a better job of introducing their talent and personalities to the world than the PGA Tour has, outside of Tiger and Phil, that is.
So here's what you do: Take a few players (eight or 16, but really any variation of the standard playoff structure would work), mix some well known players with a few up and coming ones, throw them into foursomes, mic them up and have them play 18 holes of stroke play. This is a way to seed them for match play and serves as your first episode.
Yes, I'm advocating for the creation of a reality series.
You then get a few more episodes -- depending on how you want to drag things out, you could reasonably have one episode per match -- that is always riveting because of the editing process and could introduce the casual fan to some of the next generation of players.
You could find a few sponsors to throw a guaranteed pay day to the players or make it some sort of charity event but in either case, who says no?
Anyway, on to the tournament.
Course vitals
Yardage: 7,833
Par: 72
Designed by: Jack Nicklaus (2008).
Bunkers: 89
Water Hazards: 1
Green speeds: 10.5-feet.
2010 difficulty rank: N/A
Defending Champion: Ian Poulter
Interesting Tournament stats
Winners by overall seed (it can't be quite world ranking, since not all top 64 players always play): 1st (3), 8th (1), 9th (2), 14th (1), 19th (1), 24th (1), 52nd (1), 55th (1), 62nd (1).
Other than top seeds -- who hold a 36-10 overall mark -- the ninth overall seed has the best record at 26-10.
Key Back nine hole
Generally we have at least a couple key holes but with the unpredictability of how long a match will actually go, combined with how much this particular hole could impact the proceedings, we're only going with one.
343-yard par four 15th -- In stroke play you can still pretty well do whatever you're comfortable with -- think Zach Johnson's lay-up approach to every par five at Augusta National when he won in 2007 -- but match play is a slightly different animal. You may have to take some unnecessary risks in order to shift the balance of power. Last year, the 15th was the fifth easiest hole on the course playing just over a quarter of a stroke beneath par.
Foursome Picks
Rickie Fowler, 50-1. He's going to win sometime, why not here? He has a good pedigree in match play -- a 3-1 singles record at the Walker Cup -- and is good pressure putter, as evidenced by his comeback to salvage a half point against Edoardo Molinari in last year's Ryder Cup.
Charl Schwartzel, 50-1. In my opinion, Schwartzel is absolutely primed for a breakout. Let's look at the numbers. He made the cut in all four majors last year with no finish worse than 30th. He defeated Hunter Mahan and Jim Furyk last year before bowing out against Stewart Cink in this event last year. His results in the past three months: 4, 2, 4, win, 8.
Bill Haas, 50-1. You would be hard pressed to find anyone playing more consistently right now then Haas. His worst finish in five events so far is T29 and has legitimately been in the mix in three tournaments. He's also had only three rounds over par while also carding 15 rounds in the 60s in 21 rounds. And yes, I realize that have him sending Tiger Woods packing. The problem with Tiger in this tournament -- as it has been the past few months -- is very much the opposite of Haas: consistency.
Ross Fisher, 60-1. He may have been given an early departure last year, being bounced by Thongchai Jaidee in the first round. The year before he advanced to the semi finals before falling to Paul Casey. In that same year, he won the Volvo Match Play, the premier match play event on the European Tour.
Longshot -- Jeff Overton, 100-1. Another guy who is due for a victory. He played well at the Ryder Cup last year -- ironically beating Ross Fisher in Sunday singles -- and also held a 2-0 record in the Walker Cup in singles.
Other guys I think will be in the mix
Nick Watney -- In three starts this year his results: T6, T5, T6. He advanced to the third round last year before bowing out to Retief Goosen 1-up.
Rory McIlroy -- Despite turning pro when he was 18, McIlroy still has a lot of match play experience -- at the Walker Cup, Ryder Cup and by holding a 4-2 record in this event -- add to that a pair of top-10s to start the year and I like his chances.
Hunter Mahan -- Comes in with some forward momentum after his runner-up finish at Pebble Beach in addition to a T6 at Torrey Pines at the end of January. He doesn't have the best record in this tournament -- a 2-3 overall record -- but he did advance to the semi finals of the '07 Volvo Match Play event on the European Tour and was the runner-up at the U.S. Amateur in 2002.
My full bracket
I do.
Aside from the four majors and The Players, this might be my favourite tournament of the year. In fact, I like it so much that it could actually challenge some of the majors as far as my intrigue goes.
I really can't understand why there wouldn't be more match play events during the year. Having said that, I do know that once it gets toward the end of the event this format is tough on the broadcasters.
Take the '08 tournament, for example. In the 36-hole final Tiger Woods waxed Stewart Cink to the tune of 8&7. The event was so anti-climatic that by the time they got to a point where the action is normally picking up, the outcome was all but assured.
This year they've taken steps to combat that. Instead of playing the quarter-finals and semi finals on Saturday with a 36-hole final and 18-hole consolation match, participants will play an 18-hole semi final on Sunday morning with an 18-hole final to follow. Definitely better for TV viewing.
With all that said though, I think it's an extremely compelling format and as far as getting more match play on TV, to me, the answer is simple. Take the approach poker did.
Think about it. How often do you see poker on TV? All the time.
And how well do you know some of the players? I could make a legitimate argument that poker has done a better job of introducing their talent and personalities to the world than the PGA Tour has, outside of Tiger and Phil, that is.
So here's what you do: Take a few players (eight or 16, but really any variation of the standard playoff structure would work), mix some well known players with a few up and coming ones, throw them into foursomes, mic them up and have them play 18 holes of stroke play. This is a way to seed them for match play and serves as your first episode.
Yes, I'm advocating for the creation of a reality series.
You then get a few more episodes -- depending on how you want to drag things out, you could reasonably have one episode per match -- that is always riveting because of the editing process and could introduce the casual fan to some of the next generation of players.
You could find a few sponsors to throw a guaranteed pay day to the players or make it some sort of charity event but in either case, who says no?
Anyway, on to the tournament.
Course vitals
Yardage: 7,833
Par: 72
Designed by: Jack Nicklaus (2008).
Bunkers: 89
Water Hazards: 1
Green speeds: 10.5-feet.
2010 difficulty rank: N/A
Defending Champion: Ian Poulter
Interesting Tournament stats
Winners by overall seed (it can't be quite world ranking, since not all top 64 players always play): 1st (3), 8th (1), 9th (2), 14th (1), 19th (1), 24th (1), 52nd (1), 55th (1), 62nd (1).
Other than top seeds -- who hold a 36-10 overall mark -- the ninth overall seed has the best record at 26-10.
Key Back nine hole
Generally we have at least a couple key holes but with the unpredictability of how long a match will actually go, combined with how much this particular hole could impact the proceedings, we're only going with one.
343-yard par four 15th -- In stroke play you can still pretty well do whatever you're comfortable with -- think Zach Johnson's lay-up approach to every par five at Augusta National when he won in 2007 -- but match play is a slightly different animal. You may have to take some unnecessary risks in order to shift the balance of power. Last year, the 15th was the fifth easiest hole on the course playing just over a quarter of a stroke beneath par.
Foursome Picks
Rickie Fowler, 50-1. He's going to win sometime, why not here? He has a good pedigree in match play -- a 3-1 singles record at the Walker Cup -- and is good pressure putter, as evidenced by his comeback to salvage a half point against Edoardo Molinari in last year's Ryder Cup.
Charl Schwartzel, 50-1. In my opinion, Schwartzel is absolutely primed for a breakout. Let's look at the numbers. He made the cut in all four majors last year with no finish worse than 30th. He defeated Hunter Mahan and Jim Furyk last year before bowing out against Stewart Cink in this event last year. His results in the past three months: 4, 2, 4, win, 8.
Bill Haas, 50-1. You would be hard pressed to find anyone playing more consistently right now then Haas. His worst finish in five events so far is T29 and has legitimately been in the mix in three tournaments. He's also had only three rounds over par while also carding 15 rounds in the 60s in 21 rounds. And yes, I realize that have him sending Tiger Woods packing. The problem with Tiger in this tournament -- as it has been the past few months -- is very much the opposite of Haas: consistency.
Ross Fisher, 60-1. He may have been given an early departure last year, being bounced by Thongchai Jaidee in the first round. The year before he advanced to the semi finals before falling to Paul Casey. In that same year, he won the Volvo Match Play, the premier match play event on the European Tour.
Longshot -- Jeff Overton, 100-1. Another guy who is due for a victory. He played well at the Ryder Cup last year -- ironically beating Ross Fisher in Sunday singles -- and also held a 2-0 record in the Walker Cup in singles.
Other guys I think will be in the mix
Nick Watney -- In three starts this year his results: T6, T5, T6. He advanced to the third round last year before bowing out to Retief Goosen 1-up.
Rory McIlroy -- Despite turning pro when he was 18, McIlroy still has a lot of match play experience -- at the Walker Cup, Ryder Cup and by holding a 4-2 record in this event -- add to that a pair of top-10s to start the year and I like his chances.
Hunter Mahan -- Comes in with some forward momentum after his runner-up finish at Pebble Beach in addition to a T6 at Torrey Pines at the end of January. He doesn't have the best record in this tournament -- a 2-3 overall record -- but he did advance to the semi finals of the '07 Volvo Match Play event on the European Tour and was the runner-up at the U.S. Amateur in 2002.
My full bracket
Monday, February 21, 2011
Not the start Weir was looking for in 2011
THE RECENT FLAME-OUT of Mike Weir has been tough to watch. In his last 10 events on the PGA Tour dating back to last year's U.S. Open, the 2003 Masters champion has missed the cut seven times, has posted just three rounds in the 60s and in 20 of his 29 rounds, he has failed to even shoot par.
After shutting his season down in late August last year, he began 2011 playing on a medical exemption that meant he needed to earn $164,236 in five tournaments -- the difference between his total and number 125 on the money list last year -- to keep his fully exempt status.
The events he chose to play -- thus far the Bob Hope Classic, Farmers Insurance Open, AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am and Northern Trust Open -- were cherry-picked events, as he had some level of success on each course.
He won the Hope once and had two other top-5s; he hadn't played Torrey Pines a whole lot, but he did turn in a T18 at the '08 U.S. Open; he hasn't broken through to win at Pebble Beach yet, but he's finished in the top-five five times and also has a T14; and at Riviera, well he won back-to-back in '03 and '04.
It's all very much a far cry from that magical 2003 season. Of course, he became the first Canadian to win a major championship when he defeated Len Mattiace in playoff at The Masters, but that was far from his only highlight.
In 21 starts he won three times -- the Masters, the Hope and at Riviera -- had 10 top-10s, 16 top-25s, was cut only once, had just two finishes outside the top 28 and his results in the majors were win, T3, T28, T7.
That's a pretty good year -- by anyone's standards. And yet, we always seem to circle back to just that one weekend in April.
The point of this is not to belittle Weir's efforts or dump on his future prospects. In fact, it's quite the contrary.
If this past weekend taught us anything -- with Aaron Baddeley holding off Vijay Singh to win the Northern Trust Open -- it's that talent can endure.
Sure, Weir hasn't won since 2007 and is still feeling the effects of switching to the stack and tilt swing and then reversing course.
Kinda like Baddeley.
And Weir is on the wrong side of 40 and is probably suffering from a severe lack of confidence right about now, but Singh may have been in a worse position.
In 2004 Singh had one of greatest year's in the history of the PGA Tour -- nine wins (including the PGA Championship), two seconds, one third, 18 top-10s, 24 top-25s and he made the cut in 28 of 29 events -- but even he wasn't immune to a slide later in his career.
After winning the Fed Ex Cup in 2008, Singh has struggled -- his best finish in 2009 was a T6 and in 2010 it was a T4 -- and wowhere was this more evident than on the greens. He ranked 167th in putting in '09 and 159th in '10. So far this year, he's 30th and, of course, he already has a second and third place finish.
It's not all that surprising though, his average of 29.88 puts per round in 2009 is nearly a stroke and a half more than his 28.44 average now -- that's nearly six shots a tournament.
Like Weir, Singh has suffered through some elbow injuries in recent years.
The point I'm getting at is that if Baddeley can come back from the swing changes to win on Tour, so can Weir.
And if Singh can come back from poor play, injuries and a body overall that's not as forgiving, so can Weir.
He just has too much talent to fade into obscurity.
After shutting his season down in late August last year, he began 2011 playing on a medical exemption that meant he needed to earn $164,236 in five tournaments -- the difference between his total and number 125 on the money list last year -- to keep his fully exempt status.
The events he chose to play -- thus far the Bob Hope Classic, Farmers Insurance Open, AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am and Northern Trust Open -- were cherry-picked events, as he had some level of success on each course.
He won the Hope once and had two other top-5s; he hadn't played Torrey Pines a whole lot, but he did turn in a T18 at the '08 U.S. Open; he hasn't broken through to win at Pebble Beach yet, but he's finished in the top-five five times and also has a T14; and at Riviera, well he won back-to-back in '03 and '04.
It's all very much a far cry from that magical 2003 season. Of course, he became the first Canadian to win a major championship when he defeated Len Mattiace in playoff at The Masters, but that was far from his only highlight.
In 21 starts he won three times -- the Masters, the Hope and at Riviera -- had 10 top-10s, 16 top-25s, was cut only once, had just two finishes outside the top 28 and his results in the majors were win, T3, T28, T7.
That's a pretty good year -- by anyone's standards. And yet, we always seem to circle back to just that one weekend in April.
The point of this is not to belittle Weir's efforts or dump on his future prospects. In fact, it's quite the contrary.
If this past weekend taught us anything -- with Aaron Baddeley holding off Vijay Singh to win the Northern Trust Open -- it's that talent can endure.
Sure, Weir hasn't won since 2007 and is still feeling the effects of switching to the stack and tilt swing and then reversing course.
Kinda like Baddeley.
And Weir is on the wrong side of 40 and is probably suffering from a severe lack of confidence right about now, but Singh may have been in a worse position.
In 2004 Singh had one of greatest year's in the history of the PGA Tour -- nine wins (including the PGA Championship), two seconds, one third, 18 top-10s, 24 top-25s and he made the cut in 28 of 29 events -- but even he wasn't immune to a slide later in his career.
After winning the Fed Ex Cup in 2008, Singh has struggled -- his best finish in 2009 was a T6 and in 2010 it was a T4 -- and wowhere was this more evident than on the greens. He ranked 167th in putting in '09 and 159th in '10. So far this year, he's 30th and, of course, he already has a second and third place finish.
It's not all that surprising though, his average of 29.88 puts per round in 2009 is nearly a stroke and a half more than his 28.44 average now -- that's nearly six shots a tournament.
Like Weir, Singh has suffered through some elbow injuries in recent years.
The point I'm getting at is that if Baddeley can come back from the swing changes to win on Tour, so can Weir.
And if Singh can come back from poor play, injuries and a body overall that's not as forgiving, so can Weir.
He just has too much talent to fade into obscurity.
Sunday, February 20, 2011
Norther Trust Open Tournament Backspin
WHEN FRED COUPLES was opening the final round with three straight birdies to surge into the lead, Aaron Baddeley didn't flinch. After all he, too, opened with a birdie at the first hole and was in the perfect position to capitalize when Couples faltered later on. His two shot win over Vijay Singh -- more on him later this week -- gives him his first win in more than four years (the 2007 FBR Open). And after posting a T6 last week at Pebble Beach it gives him the same number of top-10s he had all of last season and half of his total over the past three. You will likely here a lot of talk about his switch in instructors back to his first swing coach Dale Lynch in the coming days. And if the change is going to make him a consistent threat -- he joins Dustin Johnson, Sean O'Hair, Camilo Villegas, Hunter Mahan and Anthony Kim as the only players in their 20s with at least three PGA Tour wins -- perhaps it's time to start talking about him as a potential major championship contender.
Where it was won: A couple of key moments stand out in the victory. At the seventh, just as Couples was melting down -- more on that below -- Baddeley rolled in a 21-foot birdie putt from the fringe that gave him a three stroke lead at the time. Nobody would get closer than two strokes from the lead for the rest of the round. He made a mess of the 12th hole -- carding a double bogey -- but he was able to bounce back with an unlikely birdie at 13 -- negotiating a 27-foot putt, once again from the fringe, that had about six-feet of break -- and parred in to secure the win. For the week, he played our two key back nine holes -- 10 and 18 -- at four under, with no shots dropped.
Where it was lost: After those three straight birdies, it could very easily have been where Couples won the tournament. But while his success on the Champions Tour has filled him with confidence -- see his performance at last year's Masters -- it may have also gotten him used to three competitive rounds of golf inside of four. Standing on the sixth tee, Couples had carded just three bogeys in his first 59 holes this week; by the time he left the seventh green he had given back all three shots he picked in the first three holes. After that he looked mentally drained and he recorded four bogeys, one double bogey and gave back twice as many shots in the final 13 holes as he did in the first 59.
Shots of the week
Stat of the week: So steady was Baddeley's play that he finished dead last in bogeys, with just three throughout the week and he dropped just five shots.
How I did:
KJ Choi, T7
JB Holmes, T12
Brendon de Jonge, T29
Matt Kuchar, T35
Andres Romero, T55
Early look at next week
-We need more match play
-Mike Weir's struggles continue
-Vijay Singh with a resurgence
-I like: Charl Schwartzel, Ross Fisher, Jeff Overton, Edoardo Molinari
Where it was won: A couple of key moments stand out in the victory. At the seventh, just as Couples was melting down -- more on that below -- Baddeley rolled in a 21-foot birdie putt from the fringe that gave him a three stroke lead at the time. Nobody would get closer than two strokes from the lead for the rest of the round. He made a mess of the 12th hole -- carding a double bogey -- but he was able to bounce back with an unlikely birdie at 13 -- negotiating a 27-foot putt, once again from the fringe, that had about six-feet of break -- and parred in to secure the win. For the week, he played our two key back nine holes -- 10 and 18 -- at four under, with no shots dropped.
Where it was lost: After those three straight birdies, it could very easily have been where Couples won the tournament. But while his success on the Champions Tour has filled him with confidence -- see his performance at last year's Masters -- it may have also gotten him used to three competitive rounds of golf inside of four. Standing on the sixth tee, Couples had carded just three bogeys in his first 59 holes this week; by the time he left the seventh green he had given back all three shots he picked in the first three holes. After that he looked mentally drained and he recorded four bogeys, one double bogey and gave back twice as many shots in the final 13 holes as he did in the first 59.
Shots of the week
Stat of the week: So steady was Baddeley's play that he finished dead last in bogeys, with just three throughout the week and he dropped just five shots.
How I did:
KJ Choi, T7
JB Holmes, T12
Brendon de Jonge, T29
Matt Kuchar, T35
Andres Romero, T55
Early look at next week
-We need more match play
-Mike Weir's struggles continue
-Vijay Singh with a resurgence
-I like: Charl Schwartzel, Ross Fisher, Jeff Overton, Edoardo Molinari
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Trunk Slammers/Double Dip: Northern Trust Open edition
Eventually we'll settle into a pattern where we have Trunk Slammers on Friday and Double Dip on Saturday, but weather has once again played a factor in this week's tournament so we have a combined edition once again.
Trunk Slammers
Angel Cabrera, +4. The two-time major champion would be playing the weekend if not for a bogey, bogey, double finish to round two.
Luke Donald, +5. After a tidy three-under opening round, he melted down in round two with six bogeys and two doubles in an eight-over 79. What might make it a little worse is the fact that in the last three years his worse finish was a T6 in 2009.
D.A. Points, +5. Maybe he does need Bill Murray. From winner at Pebble Beach to taking the weekend off.
Dustin Johnson, +6. Rules were once again at the centre of Johnson's discontent. He was unaware of when he was actually supposed to tee off in round and was assessed a two stroke penalty. As a result, he began his day with a double bogey on the easiest hole on the course, one that conceded 20 eagles and 154 eagles in the first two rounds.
Ryo Ishikawa, +7. In advance of next week's World Match Play Championship, the Japanese phenom was teeing it up on U.S. soil for the first time since the PGA Championship in August. He could never get anything going though, hitting just 47.2 per cent of greens in regulation.
Jason Day, +8. After posting back-to-back top-20 finishes to begin the year in Hawaii, Day took a month off. Obviously a little rusty, he carded just one birdie in the first two rounds.
Pat Perez, +8. With back-to-back top 25 finishes in San Diego and Scottsdale, Perez seemed to be building some momentum. He's now building that momentum in the wrong direction with back-to-back cuts. His second round was particularly dreadful, with nine bogeys and no birdies.
Trunk Slammer of the Week
Ben Martin, +5. After holding a share of first round lead with a four-under 67, Martin got to -5 with a birdie at the third hole. He managed to play the final 12 holes at +10 on his way to his second straight missed cut.
Double Dip
Ryan Moore, 20-1. Second in the field in driving accuracy at 73.8 per cent, Moore is inside the top 25 in birdies (T10), putts per round (T18) and greens in regulation (T21).
John Senden, 25-1. Senden is second in the field in proximity to the hole at just under 28-feet per approach but he's in a tie for 44th in putting. If he can continue that ball striking and start making some putts, he can contend.
JB Holmes, 33-1. A part of this is the belief that he can eagle the first hole. If he did that, he's certainly a factor.
Trunk Slammers
Angel Cabrera, +4. The two-time major champion would be playing the weekend if not for a bogey, bogey, double finish to round two.
Luke Donald, +5. After a tidy three-under opening round, he melted down in round two with six bogeys and two doubles in an eight-over 79. What might make it a little worse is the fact that in the last three years his worse finish was a T6 in 2009.
D.A. Points, +5. Maybe he does need Bill Murray. From winner at Pebble Beach to taking the weekend off.
Dustin Johnson, +6. Rules were once again at the centre of Johnson's discontent. He was unaware of when he was actually supposed to tee off in round and was assessed a two stroke penalty. As a result, he began his day with a double bogey on the easiest hole on the course, one that conceded 20 eagles and 154 eagles in the first two rounds.
Ryo Ishikawa, +7. In advance of next week's World Match Play Championship, the Japanese phenom was teeing it up on U.S. soil for the first time since the PGA Championship in August. He could never get anything going though, hitting just 47.2 per cent of greens in regulation.
Jason Day, +8. After posting back-to-back top-20 finishes to begin the year in Hawaii, Day took a month off. Obviously a little rusty, he carded just one birdie in the first two rounds.
Pat Perez, +8. With back-to-back top 25 finishes in San Diego and Scottsdale, Perez seemed to be building some momentum. He's now building that momentum in the wrong direction with back-to-back cuts. His second round was particularly dreadful, with nine bogeys and no birdies.
Trunk Slammer of the Week
Ben Martin, +5. After holding a share of first round lead with a four-under 67, Martin got to -5 with a birdie at the third hole. He managed to play the final 12 holes at +10 on his way to his second straight missed cut.
Double Dip
Ryan Moore, 20-1. Second in the field in driving accuracy at 73.8 per cent, Moore is inside the top 25 in birdies (T10), putts per round (T18) and greens in regulation (T21).
John Senden, 25-1. Senden is second in the field in proximity to the hole at just under 28-feet per approach but he's in a tie for 44th in putting. If he can continue that ball striking and start making some putts, he can contend.
JB Holmes, 33-1. A part of this is the belief that he can eagle the first hole. If he did that, he's certainly a factor.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Northern Trust Open Preview and Picks
Course vitals
Yardage:
Par: 71
Designed by: George Thomas (1926). Re-designed by Tom Fazio (2008).
Bunkers: 60.
Water Hazards: None.
Green speeds: 12-feet.
2010 difficulty rank: 20 of 52.
Course record: 61, Ted Tryba (1999).
Defending Champion: Steve Stricker -16
Key Back Nine Holes
315-yard par four 10th -- Aside from the par-three sixth hole with it's bunker in the middle of the green, the 10th is one of the most iconic on the hallowed greens at Riviera. While the idea of having a risk/reward drivable par four may almost be mandatory in today's course design, that wasn't exactly the case in the 20's when Riviera was built. A year ago it played slight under par -- at a stroke average of 3.932 -- and was the 12th hardest hole on the course, which represents a slight increase -- 3.851 and 16th in difficulty -- over the past 28 years. It is truly a tremendous design as the green is certainly reachable, but with it's left to right slope and the fact that it is long as opposed to wide, makes it hard to hold the green. To further emphasize the risk/reward nature, last year there nearly twice as many birdies (109) as there were bogeys (56) but there were seven times as many double bogeys or worse (13 doubles, one triple) as there were eagles (two).
475-yard par four 18th -- While the 10th may provide a scoring opportunity if played correctly, 18 is all about survival. A year ago it played as the hardest hole on the course, yielding just 38 birdies in 410 rounds over the four days. The biggest challenge will be the tee-shot as it's semi blind and the fairway runs away from the player to the right. The entire course is lined with Kikuyu grass, which is a tremendous surface to play on -- if you're in the fairway. It tends to be a bit grabby if you find the rough.
Foursome picks
Matt Kuchar, 20-1. Considering how consistent he has been in the past 14 months -- he's missed just two cuts; finished outside the top-25 only three times in 26 tournaments; and posted 14 top-10s, including in all three tournaments his played in this year -- Kuchar is going to be in the hunt in a lot of tournaments by osmosis. Add to that a decent record at Riviera -- T20 last year and T14 in 2008 -- and he's a strong play this week.
J.B. Holmes, 25-1. Coming off back-to-back top-15 finishes -- T5 in Phoenix and T13 last week at Pebble Beach -- J.B. Holmes is a trendy pick this week. There's a little bit more foundation there though as his three most recent appearances resulted in the following finishes: T3, T6, T7.
K.J. Choi, 50-1. It's a bit of a gut pick, considering Choi hasn't gotten off to the greatest start. Still he's had success here before as evidenced by his results in the last few years: T27, T3, T7, T22, T30, T29, T65, T5.
Andres Romero, 80-1. There's a pretty good case to be made that Andres Romero hit his peak in 2007 when he carded a final round 67 at Turnberry to finish solo 3rd in the Open Championship. He's seen his world ranking steadily decline ever since then, even after winning in New Orleans in '08. Still in the past two years he's posted four top-10s and two of them came at Riviera with a T3 in '09 and a T5 in '10. They represented his best finish on Tour all season.
Longshot: Brendon de Jonge, 110-1. In a strange way, de Jonge is sort of like a poor-man's Matt Kuchar. He's pretty consistent, just not quite as consistent as Kuchar. In his past 36 events on the PGA Tour he's made the cut in 27 of them and finished at least T40 in 22. In his only appearance at Riviera in 2009, he posted a T10.
Yardage:
Par: 71
Designed by: George Thomas (1926). Re-designed by Tom Fazio (2008).
Bunkers: 60.
Water Hazards: None.
Green speeds: 12-feet.
2010 difficulty rank: 20 of 52.
Course record: 61, Ted Tryba (1999).
Defending Champion: Steve Stricker -16
Key Back Nine Holes
315-yard par four 10th -- Aside from the par-three sixth hole with it's bunker in the middle of the green, the 10th is one of the most iconic on the hallowed greens at Riviera. While the idea of having a risk/reward drivable par four may almost be mandatory in today's course design, that wasn't exactly the case in the 20's when Riviera was built. A year ago it played slight under par -- at a stroke average of 3.932 -- and was the 12th hardest hole on the course, which represents a slight increase -- 3.851 and 16th in difficulty -- over the past 28 years. It is truly a tremendous design as the green is certainly reachable, but with it's left to right slope and the fact that it is long as opposed to wide, makes it hard to hold the green. To further emphasize the risk/reward nature, last year there nearly twice as many birdies (109) as there were bogeys (56) but there were seven times as many double bogeys or worse (13 doubles, one triple) as there were eagles (two).
475-yard par four 18th -- While the 10th may provide a scoring opportunity if played correctly, 18 is all about survival. A year ago it played as the hardest hole on the course, yielding just 38 birdies in 410 rounds over the four days. The biggest challenge will be the tee-shot as it's semi blind and the fairway runs away from the player to the right. The entire course is lined with Kikuyu grass, which is a tremendous surface to play on -- if you're in the fairway. It tends to be a bit grabby if you find the rough.
Foursome picks
Matt Kuchar, 20-1. Considering how consistent he has been in the past 14 months -- he's missed just two cuts; finished outside the top-25 only three times in 26 tournaments; and posted 14 top-10s, including in all three tournaments his played in this year -- Kuchar is going to be in the hunt in a lot of tournaments by osmosis. Add to that a decent record at Riviera -- T20 last year and T14 in 2008 -- and he's a strong play this week.
J.B. Holmes, 25-1. Coming off back-to-back top-15 finishes -- T5 in Phoenix and T13 last week at Pebble Beach -- J.B. Holmes is a trendy pick this week. There's a little bit more foundation there though as his three most recent appearances resulted in the following finishes: T3, T6, T7.
K.J. Choi, 50-1. It's a bit of a gut pick, considering Choi hasn't gotten off to the greatest start. Still he's had success here before as evidenced by his results in the last few years: T27, T3, T7, T22, T30, T29, T65, T5.
Andres Romero, 80-1. There's a pretty good case to be made that Andres Romero hit his peak in 2007 when he carded a final round 67 at Turnberry to finish solo 3rd in the Open Championship. He's seen his world ranking steadily decline ever since then, even after winning in New Orleans in '08. Still in the past two years he's posted four top-10s and two of them came at Riviera with a T3 in '09 and a T5 in '10. They represented his best finish on Tour all season.
Longshot: Brendon de Jonge, 110-1. In a strange way, de Jonge is sort of like a poor-man's Matt Kuchar. He's pretty consistent, just not quite as consistent as Kuchar. In his past 36 events on the PGA Tour he's made the cut in 27 of them and finished at least T40 in 22. In his only appearance at Riviera in 2009, he posted a T10.
Monday, February 14, 2011
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am Tournament Backspin
THERE IS A reason Bill Murray had never won the Pro-am portion of the AT&T Pebble Beach National. It's not that he can't play -- he's actually quite an accomplished golfer, carrying a single digit handicap -- but rather the idea that he was there to entertain. And ultimately it may have been that lighted hearted approach that helped D.A. Points pick up his first career win, while putting Murray in the winner's circle as well. And to think, most players thought playing with Murray would be a disadvantage. "I tried to embrace it," he said after. "I was expecting him to be, you know, more of a distraction than he was, and maybe he toned it down, maybe he didn't, I didn't know, but he just seemed to have fun and he taught me to go ahead and have a little more fun and in turn, it distracted me from trying so hard. It kept me more loose and having a good time with Bill."
Where it was won: Over the last five holes. Points started his run with the eagle at 14 and followed it up by rolling in a birdie from 29-feet away on 15. But that might not have even been his best hole on the back stretch. After a loose tee shot on 16 left him in some deep cabbage, he wasn't able to get enough on a five-iron to get it to the green. He had a ticklish pitch out the green-side rough that he played with a deft touch that left him six feet for par. It wasn't necessarily his best putting stroke of the day -- it had to sneak in the left side of the cup -- but it was enough to salvage par. On 17 and 18 he took a conservative approach and was rewarded with a pair of pars to help secure the two-stroke victory.
Where it was lost: Steve Marino. Sure he blew up with a triple bogey on 18, but I'm not going to skewer a guy for making a big number because he was trying to hole out for eagle to tie. No, Marino had already lost the tournament prior to that. No more so than on 16 or 17 were he had reasonable looks at birdie -- 15 feet on 16 and 25 feet on 17 -- but didn't hit either with enough pace to give them a chance.
Hunter Mahan. He may have fired the round of a the day -- a six-under 66 -- but he also missed out on two key opportunities that could have put him in a playoff. Early in the round, at the par-three fifth he stiffed his tee-shot to seven feet and then promptly missed the golden scoring chance. At 18, after hitting two magnificent shots to find himself on the par-five green in two he three putted -- his eventual birdie chance from just over five feet. If you're keeping track, that's two putts for birdie that combined were 12-feet from the hole in a tournament he lost by two strokes.
Shots of the week
Stat of the week: How significant was Points' eagle three on 14? During the final round there were nearly as many bogeys (25) as there were pars (30) there and his three almost gave him a two and a half stroke advantage over the field, as the hole played to a 5.352 stroke advantage. If that's not enough, it was the only eagle of the week at 14 while the other three par fives conceded 20 eagles. In fact, there were only 31 birdies at 14 which accounted for less than 10 per cent of the 312 birdies on par fives at Pebble Beach during the week.
How I did
D.A. Points, Won.
Alex Cejka, T21.
Pat Perez, Cut.
Brandt Snedeker, Cut.
Tim Clark, WD.
Early look at next week:
-Who I like: Matt Kuchar, Jeff Overton, Bill Haas.
Where it was won: Over the last five holes. Points started his run with the eagle at 14 and followed it up by rolling in a birdie from 29-feet away on 15. But that might not have even been his best hole on the back stretch. After a loose tee shot on 16 left him in some deep cabbage, he wasn't able to get enough on a five-iron to get it to the green. He had a ticklish pitch out the green-side rough that he played with a deft touch that left him six feet for par. It wasn't necessarily his best putting stroke of the day -- it had to sneak in the left side of the cup -- but it was enough to salvage par. On 17 and 18 he took a conservative approach and was rewarded with a pair of pars to help secure the two-stroke victory.
Where it was lost: Steve Marino. Sure he blew up with a triple bogey on 18, but I'm not going to skewer a guy for making a big number because he was trying to hole out for eagle to tie. No, Marino had already lost the tournament prior to that. No more so than on 16 or 17 were he had reasonable looks at birdie -- 15 feet on 16 and 25 feet on 17 -- but didn't hit either with enough pace to give them a chance.
Hunter Mahan. He may have fired the round of a the day -- a six-under 66 -- but he also missed out on two key opportunities that could have put him in a playoff. Early in the round, at the par-three fifth he stiffed his tee-shot to seven feet and then promptly missed the golden scoring chance. At 18, after hitting two magnificent shots to find himself on the par-five green in two he three putted -- his eventual birdie chance from just over five feet. If you're keeping track, that's two putts for birdie that combined were 12-feet from the hole in a tournament he lost by two strokes.
Shots of the week
Stat of the week: How significant was Points' eagle three on 14? During the final round there were nearly as many bogeys (25) as there were pars (30) there and his three almost gave him a two and a half stroke advantage over the field, as the hole played to a 5.352 stroke advantage. If that's not enough, it was the only eagle of the week at 14 while the other three par fives conceded 20 eagles. In fact, there were only 31 birdies at 14 which accounted for less than 10 per cent of the 312 birdies on par fives at Pebble Beach during the week.
How I did
D.A. Points, Won.
Alex Cejka, T21.
Pat Perez, Cut.
Brandt Snedeker, Cut.
Tim Clark, WD.
Early look at next week:
-Who I like: Matt Kuchar, Jeff Overton, Bill Haas.
Saturday, February 12, 2011
Trunk Slammers/Double-Dip: AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am
Geoff Ogilvy, Even. After fading down the stretch in the fourth round of the Waste Management Phoenix Open last week, Ogilvy went from two-under and solidly inside the cut line to even par and taking Sunday off after carding three bogeys and just one birdie in his first nine holes.
Mike Weir, +1. Playing on a medical exemption, it was an important stretch for Weir but -- despite carding his first round in the 60s in his opening round at Spyglass Hill GC -- he now has two missed cuts and a T77 in three starts.
Mark Wilson, +2. It's hard to look at a couple of numbers -- he hit 85 per cent of fairways and 74 per cent of greens in reg in the first three rounds -- and think that he missed the cut. His driving accuracy was better than both his wins and his greens in reg was nearly as good as his total in Hawaii.
Jim Furyk, +4. In 2010 Jim Furyk was the player of the year with three wins while only missing the cut three times. In three starts in 2011, he's missed the cut twice.
Jonathan Byrd, +6. After a win at Kapalua and then a pair of top-40 finishes, Byrd couldn't get anything going with 13 bogeys and only seven birdies.
Jamie Lovemark, WD. It has not been the start that many would have expected for last year's Nationwide Tour player of the year. In five tournaments he has posted the following results: cut, cut, T58, cut and WD. That last one, of course, come after a first round 81 where he carded four bogeys and four double bogeys.
Trunk Slammer of the week
Tim Petrovic, +16. After a so-so round of one-over at Monterey Peninsula CC on Thursday, Petrovic blew up on Friday, opening his round with six bogeys in his first eight holes on his way to an 80. And to add insult to injury he closed his third round at Pebble Beach with by playing the final four holes at eight-over -- with two bogeys, a double bogey and a quadruple bogey.
I'm introducing a new feature this week, the double-dip. Every week I make five picks to win the tournament outright before the tournament begins and I've tweeted out some secondary picks heading into the final round a couple times when the odds have changed, so I figured why not make that a regular feature.
Phil Mickelson, 20-1 and Hunter Mahan, 25-1. Both start five shots back heading into Sunday. Mahan hasn't had much success here in the past -- his two best results were a T14 and a T16 in '06 and '07 -- but he did make his way around Pebble Beach at five-under in his second round. Mickelson, of course, has won here three times before -- in '07, '05 and '98.
And it wouldn't be a true double-dip if I didn't back two of the guys I had before the tournament began.
DA Points, 9-1 and Alex Cejka, 20-1. Cejka began the week with a double-eagle on the tenth hole of Monterey Peninsula CC and could end it in style with a victory. Despite the fact that he couldn't get any consistency going in round three -- with an eagle, four birdies, nine pars, three bogeys and a double bogey -- Points has made 18 birdies this, tied for most in the field. If he keeps gives taking advantage of those opportunities, he will be a factor on Sunday.
Mike Weir, +1. Playing on a medical exemption, it was an important stretch for Weir but -- despite carding his first round in the 60s in his opening round at Spyglass Hill GC -- he now has two missed cuts and a T77 in three starts.
Mark Wilson, +2. It's hard to look at a couple of numbers -- he hit 85 per cent of fairways and 74 per cent of greens in reg in the first three rounds -- and think that he missed the cut. His driving accuracy was better than both his wins and his greens in reg was nearly as good as his total in Hawaii.
Jim Furyk, +4. In 2010 Jim Furyk was the player of the year with three wins while only missing the cut three times. In three starts in 2011, he's missed the cut twice.
Jonathan Byrd, +6. After a win at Kapalua and then a pair of top-40 finishes, Byrd couldn't get anything going with 13 bogeys and only seven birdies.
Jamie Lovemark, WD. It has not been the start that many would have expected for last year's Nationwide Tour player of the year. In five tournaments he has posted the following results: cut, cut, T58, cut and WD. That last one, of course, come after a first round 81 where he carded four bogeys and four double bogeys.
Trunk Slammer of the week
Tim Petrovic, +16. After a so-so round of one-over at Monterey Peninsula CC on Thursday, Petrovic blew up on Friday, opening his round with six bogeys in his first eight holes on his way to an 80. And to add insult to injury he closed his third round at Pebble Beach with by playing the final four holes at eight-over -- with two bogeys, a double bogey and a quadruple bogey.
I'm introducing a new feature this week, the double-dip. Every week I make five picks to win the tournament outright before the tournament begins and I've tweeted out some secondary picks heading into the final round a couple times when the odds have changed, so I figured why not make that a regular feature.
Phil Mickelson, 20-1 and Hunter Mahan, 25-1. Both start five shots back heading into Sunday. Mahan hasn't had much success here in the past -- his two best results were a T14 and a T16 in '06 and '07 -- but he did make his way around Pebble Beach at five-under in his second round. Mickelson, of course, has won here three times before -- in '07, '05 and '98.
And it wouldn't be a true double-dip if I didn't back two of the guys I had before the tournament began.
DA Points, 9-1 and Alex Cejka, 20-1. Cejka began the week with a double-eagle on the tenth hole of Monterey Peninsula CC and could end it in style with a victory. Despite the fact that he couldn't get any consistency going in round three -- with an eagle, four birdies, nine pars, three bogeys and a double bogey -- Points has made 18 birdies this, tied for most in the field. If he keeps gives taking advantage of those opportunities, he will be a factor on Sunday.
Thursday, February 10, 2011
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am preview and picks
Course vitals
Yardage: 6,816
Par: 72
Designed by: Jack Neville and Douglas Grant, 1919
Bunkers: 111
Water Hazards: Ocean on half the holes
Green speeds: 10-feet on Stimpmeter
2010 Difficulty rank: 31 out of 52
Course record: 62, Tom Kite, David Duval (1983, 1997)
Defending Champion: Dustin Johnson, -16.
Key back nine holes
573-yard par-five 14th and 543-yard par-five 18th -- Generally par-fives are where the pros really set themselves apart in tournaments. Thus far in 2011 the winners have played the par-fives at 9.6 under par on average, with the worst par-five performance of any winner being Mark Wilson (seven-under in both of his wins). With that in mind, the two par-fives on the back nine at Pebble Beach are not generally known as great scoring opportunities. Last year the pair ranked as the three toughest par fives on Tour -- the 14th in U.S. Open conditions was first, with the AT&T Pebble Beach second and the 18th at the U.S. Open third -- even if Dustin Johnson did register a birdie on the 72nd hole last year's AT&T National. The 18th has also been the place of quite a few spectacular moments over the years. From Hale Irwin's tee-shot that seemed destined for the Pacific Ocean, only to miraculously bounce back into play (the 26 second mark of the first video below) to the one Tiger Woods played in the third round of last year's U.S. Open -- challenging the ocean yet again with a big cut to avoid trees.
Foursome picks
Tim Clark, 20-1: Other than a blister problem -- stemming from a 36-hole Sunday finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii -- it's been a pretty good start for the South African, having posted a T17 and a T2. He's had pretty good success at Pebble Beach over the years posting the following finishes in eight tournaments, including last year's U.S. Open: T10, T12, T22, Cut, T12, T4, T10, W/D.
Brandt Snedeker, 30-1: It's been a pretty good start for 2011 for Snedeker. He was cut in his first tournament at the Bob Hope Classic, but he has played all 12 rounds this year under par. He's posted back-to-back top-10s and played pretty well at Pebble in 2010 with a T21 at the AT&T and T8 at the U.S. Open.
Pat Perez, 66-1: In eight appearances in this tournament, Perez has been pretty consistent, posting the following finishes: T35, T39, T24, T57, T14, cut, T47, 2. The Pro-am format probably doesn't bother him too much, as his lone PGA Tour win came in the 2009 Bob Hope Classic.
D.A. Points, 80-1: This is more a pick about how he's playing this year instead of his history at Pebble Beach. In three starts, he's posted a T42, 5 and T18 with only one round -- an opening 73 at the Farmers Insurance Open -- over par.
Longshot -- Alex Cejka, 150-1: He's missed the cut in back-to-back weeks, but in 2010 the German played well at Pebble Beach. In last year's AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, he finished T10 and later in the year at the U.S. Open -- under brutally tough conditions -- he finished T8.
Yardage: 6,816
Par: 72
Designed by: Jack Neville and Douglas Grant, 1919
Bunkers: 111
Water Hazards: Ocean on half the holes
Green speeds: 10-feet on Stimpmeter
2010 Difficulty rank: 31 out of 52
Course record: 62, Tom Kite, David Duval (1983, 1997)
Defending Champion: Dustin Johnson, -16.
Key back nine holes
573-yard par-five 14th and 543-yard par-five 18th -- Generally par-fives are where the pros really set themselves apart in tournaments. Thus far in 2011 the winners have played the par-fives at 9.6 under par on average, with the worst par-five performance of any winner being Mark Wilson (seven-under in both of his wins). With that in mind, the two par-fives on the back nine at Pebble Beach are not generally known as great scoring opportunities. Last year the pair ranked as the three toughest par fives on Tour -- the 14th in U.S. Open conditions was first, with the AT&T Pebble Beach second and the 18th at the U.S. Open third -- even if Dustin Johnson did register a birdie on the 72nd hole last year's AT&T National. The 18th has also been the place of quite a few spectacular moments over the years. From Hale Irwin's tee-shot that seemed destined for the Pacific Ocean, only to miraculously bounce back into play (the 26 second mark of the first video below) to the one Tiger Woods played in the third round of last year's U.S. Open -- challenging the ocean yet again with a big cut to avoid trees.
Foursome picks
Tim Clark, 20-1: Other than a blister problem -- stemming from a 36-hole Sunday finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii -- it's been a pretty good start for the South African, having posted a T17 and a T2. He's had pretty good success at Pebble Beach over the years posting the following finishes in eight tournaments, including last year's U.S. Open: T10, T12, T22, Cut, T12, T4, T10, W/D.
Brandt Snedeker, 30-1: It's been a pretty good start for 2011 for Snedeker. He was cut in his first tournament at the Bob Hope Classic, but he has played all 12 rounds this year under par. He's posted back-to-back top-10s and played pretty well at Pebble in 2010 with a T21 at the AT&T and T8 at the U.S. Open.
Pat Perez, 66-1: In eight appearances in this tournament, Perez has been pretty consistent, posting the following finishes: T35, T39, T24, T57, T14, cut, T47, 2. The Pro-am format probably doesn't bother him too much, as his lone PGA Tour win came in the 2009 Bob Hope Classic.
D.A. Points, 80-1: This is more a pick about how he's playing this year instead of his history at Pebble Beach. In three starts, he's posted a T42, 5 and T18 with only one round -- an opening 73 at the Farmers Insurance Open -- over par.
Longshot -- Alex Cejka, 150-1: He's missed the cut in back-to-back weeks, but in 2010 the German played well at Pebble Beach. In last year's AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, he finished T10 and later in the year at the U.S. Open -- under brutally tough conditions -- he finished T8.
Monday, February 7, 2011
Sunday Backspin: Waste Management Phoenix Open
Because of all the delays this weekend, it really played havoc with some of our normal features.
IT'S PRETTY INCREDIBLE to think that the guy who is the hottest player on the PGA Tour early in 2011 -- and with two wins in three starts, there really can't be any debate -- had just two top-10s a year ago. But that's exactly the scenario with Mark Wilson, who birdied the second playoff hole against Jason Dufner to win the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
To give the victory some context, During the 2010 PGA Tour season, there were seven players to win at least two tournaments: Jim Furyk, Ernie Els, Bill Haas, Dustin Johnson, Hunter Mahan, Justin Rose, Steve Stricker. Of those players their current world ranking, in order: 10, 11, 46, 14, 21, 31, 8.
Conversely, Mark Wilson ended 2010 ranked 230th in the world; he has now moved up to 51st.
Where it was won: Down to the very end, Wilson had some ticklish moments -- a tough pitch at 17, a tee shot on 18 that looked like it was touch-and-go to clear the water hazard, and solid two-putt par on the first playoff -- but handled them all flawlessly. He then capitalized on the second playoff hole, sticking his approach from 130 yards to under nine feet and then converting the birdie.
Where it was lost: Jason Dufner. It's really hard to rain criticism on a guy who was 18-under through 72 holes after making just two bogeys. But there were still some areas that left something to be desired. Most notably, Dufner had a good chance to win on the first playoff hole -- with a 12-foot putt from the fringe -- but he just didn't put enough pace on it to get it to the hole.
Tommy Gainey: Former Big Break contest Tommy "Two Gloves" Gainey spent much of the weekend in contention and stayed that way into the Monday finish, but he took himself out of contention at 17. He took an aggressive approach to the short par-four, but ended up putting his tee-shot in the water -- though he was teased when it bounced off the hazard marker -- and then compounded the error by leaving his chip short and having it roll back into the hazard. His triple bogey seven took him from one shot back to four back.
Shots of the week
Stat of the week: A couple of interesting ones this week. First, Mark Wilson's iron play was such a factor in his victory. He led the field in greens in regulation at (84.7 per cent) which also helped him play the par-fours at 11-under. Additionally, he needed to post a T6 at Children's Miracle Network Classic in the final tournament of the year just to stay inside the top 125 and keep his exempt status. After that result, his finishes in 2011: 1, T61, 1.
How I did: Geoff Ogilvy, -13. T13
Brian Gay, -12. T18
Rory Sabbatini, -11. T22.
Kevin Na, Cut.
Sean O'Hair, Cut.
Early look at next week:
-Dustin Johnson returns to Pebble Beach.
-A really good field in Dubai
-Who I like at Pebble: D.J. Trahan, Alex Cejka, Pat Perez.
Again, all the delays and change in the schedule really threw this off.
Trunk slammer of the week: Camilo Villegas. How's this for the first month of your season: DQ, Cut, T44, WD. Quite a difference from a year ago when he started the year on the European Tour, but his first four tournaments in 2010: 19, 9, 3, T8. That third place finish was at the Accenture Match Play Championship and then of course in his fifth start, he won the Honda Classic.
IT'S PRETTY INCREDIBLE to think that the guy who is the hottest player on the PGA Tour early in 2011 -- and with two wins in three starts, there really can't be any debate -- had just two top-10s a year ago. But that's exactly the scenario with Mark Wilson, who birdied the second playoff hole against Jason Dufner to win the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
To give the victory some context, During the 2010 PGA Tour season, there were seven players to win at least two tournaments: Jim Furyk, Ernie Els, Bill Haas, Dustin Johnson, Hunter Mahan, Justin Rose, Steve Stricker. Of those players their current world ranking, in order: 10, 11, 46, 14, 21, 31, 8.
Conversely, Mark Wilson ended 2010 ranked 230th in the world; he has now moved up to 51st.
Where it was won: Down to the very end, Wilson had some ticklish moments -- a tough pitch at 17, a tee shot on 18 that looked like it was touch-and-go to clear the water hazard, and solid two-putt par on the first playoff -- but handled them all flawlessly. He then capitalized on the second playoff hole, sticking his approach from 130 yards to under nine feet and then converting the birdie.
Where it was lost: Jason Dufner. It's really hard to rain criticism on a guy who was 18-under through 72 holes after making just two bogeys. But there were still some areas that left something to be desired. Most notably, Dufner had a good chance to win on the first playoff hole -- with a 12-foot putt from the fringe -- but he just didn't put enough pace on it to get it to the hole.
Tommy Gainey: Former Big Break contest Tommy "Two Gloves" Gainey spent much of the weekend in contention and stayed that way into the Monday finish, but he took himself out of contention at 17. He took an aggressive approach to the short par-four, but ended up putting his tee-shot in the water -- though he was teased when it bounced off the hazard marker -- and then compounded the error by leaving his chip short and having it roll back into the hazard. His triple bogey seven took him from one shot back to four back.
Shots of the week
Stat of the week: A couple of interesting ones this week. First, Mark Wilson's iron play was such a factor in his victory. He led the field in greens in regulation at (84.7 per cent) which also helped him play the par-fours at 11-under. Additionally, he needed to post a T6 at Children's Miracle Network Classic in the final tournament of the year just to stay inside the top 125 and keep his exempt status. After that result, his finishes in 2011: 1, T61, 1.
How I did: Geoff Ogilvy, -13. T13
Brian Gay, -12. T18
Rory Sabbatini, -11. T22.
Kevin Na, Cut.
Sean O'Hair, Cut.
Early look at next week:
-Dustin Johnson returns to Pebble Beach.
-A really good field in Dubai
-Who I like at Pebble: D.J. Trahan, Alex Cejka, Pat Perez.
Again, all the delays and change in the schedule really threw this off.
Trunk slammer of the week: Camilo Villegas. How's this for the first month of your season: DQ, Cut, T44, WD. Quite a difference from a year ago when he started the year on the European Tour, but his first four tournaments in 2010: 19, 9, 3, T8. That third place finish was at the Accenture Match Play Championship and then of course in his fifth start, he won the Honda Classic.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Waste Management Phoenix Open Preview and Picks
DUE TO THE fact that I'm in the process of moving this weekend, it's an abbreviated preview this week. By that, I mean there really won't be much of a preview and just the picks. It happens.
Kevin Na, 40-1. Eventually Na is going to breakthrough and win on the PGA Tour and it could very well be this week. He had back-to-back T5s here recently with a fourth place showing in 2008, followed by a third place finish in 2009.
Brian Gay, 40-1. Reason number one to like Brian Gay this week: his putting (2nd on Tour last year) means he could be a threat any time he tees it up. Reason number two: He's started 2011 in a good way with a T13 and a T5 in his first two starts. And finally, he's had pretty good success at TPC Scottsdale with three straight top-25s from 2007-2009.
Geoff Ogilvy, 40-1. After a finger injury -- on a piece of coral on a Hawaiian beach -- forced Ogilvy to withdraw prior to his defence at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, he is making his 2011 season debut this week. Call it a gut feel on this one, as the Arizona resident has never produced a finish better than T17 here.
Sean O'Hair, 66-1. The result of O'Hair's 2010, to me, are a little misleading. It's true that he didn't win and slipped from 15th to 43rd in the world, but a further analysis of his year shows something interesting. His result in majors, WGC events and The Players, in order were: T17, T18, T30, T22, T12, T7, 5, Cut. What that says to me is that he's focused a lot of his energy on trying to win the big tournaments. Having said that, much like Ogilvy, I like him this week based purely on gut feel.
Long shot: Rory Sabbatini, 100-1. A lot of gut picks this week. Maybe I'm off a bit with everything else going on, but at the price, certainly worth. Sabbatini hasn't played awful here really, but his best finish is a T12.
Kevin Na, 40-1. Eventually Na is going to breakthrough and win on the PGA Tour and it could very well be this week. He had back-to-back T5s here recently with a fourth place showing in 2008, followed by a third place finish in 2009.
Brian Gay, 40-1. Reason number one to like Brian Gay this week: his putting (2nd on Tour last year) means he could be a threat any time he tees it up. Reason number two: He's started 2011 in a good way with a T13 and a T5 in his first two starts. And finally, he's had pretty good success at TPC Scottsdale with three straight top-25s from 2007-2009.
Geoff Ogilvy, 40-1. After a finger injury -- on a piece of coral on a Hawaiian beach -- forced Ogilvy to withdraw prior to his defence at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, he is making his 2011 season debut this week. Call it a gut feel on this one, as the Arizona resident has never produced a finish better than T17 here.
Sean O'Hair, 66-1. The result of O'Hair's 2010, to me, are a little misleading. It's true that he didn't win and slipped from 15th to 43rd in the world, but a further analysis of his year shows something interesting. His result in majors, WGC events and The Players, in order were: T17, T18, T30, T22, T12, T7, 5, Cut. What that says to me is that he's focused a lot of his energy on trying to win the big tournaments. Having said that, much like Ogilvy, I like him this week based purely on gut feel.
Long shot: Rory Sabbatini, 100-1. A lot of gut picks this week. Maybe I'm off a bit with everything else going on, but at the price, certainly worth. Sabbatini hasn't played awful here really, but his best finish is a T12.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
First Tee Links: February 1
A little delayed with this weeks links, but there's some interesting stuff in here.
With 26 major championships between them, Jack Nicklaus and Tom Watson defended at the Champions Tour skins game.
A few Tiger notes here. 1. Good start, rough finish. His worst opening tournament in a long time, in fact.
2. Brendan Steele, who was paired with Woods on Sunday, says the former world number one mailed it in on Sunday.
3. His course design project in Dubai appears to be on life support at best and may very well be beyond saving at worst.
4. Joe Posnanski of SI believes the dominant Tiger we once knew is no more and won't be coming back.
It was a good start to the week for John Daly, but it didn't end well with a 79 on Sunday.
Paul Casey gets back into the winner's circle on European Tour.
A couple of Phil Mickelseon notes. 1. His caddie says unless you saw the lie, criticism of his lay-up is unfounded.
2. For the first time since The Players in 2009, his wife Amy was able to walk a full round following her husband and it seems to have rejuvenated him.
Jhonattan Vegas is the first rookie to the lead the FedEx Cup Standings. Let's file this under moderately interesting.
Interesting interview with R&A chief exec. Peter Dawson about the possible change of rules relating to viewers getting players disqualified.
After parting ways with Tiger Woods recently, Golf Digest is partnering with Rickie Fowler. Good move for both, I believe.
Other public venues that host major championships should take note of this Kiwah Island initiative to let the public play under major conditions.
Saw this piece about Bubba Watson deciding not to upgrade to new equipment and found it even more poignant after his win. And of course, here's what was in his bag for the victory.
If he's unwilling to go to Q-School, John Daly has no right to complain.
CBS extends broadcast contract for the PGA Championship.
With 26 major championships between them, Jack Nicklaus and Tom Watson defended at the Champions Tour skins game.
A few Tiger notes here. 1. Good start, rough finish. His worst opening tournament in a long time, in fact.
2. Brendan Steele, who was paired with Woods on Sunday, says the former world number one mailed it in on Sunday.
3. His course design project in Dubai appears to be on life support at best and may very well be beyond saving at worst.
4. Joe Posnanski of SI believes the dominant Tiger we once knew is no more and won't be coming back.
It was a good start to the week for John Daly, but it didn't end well with a 79 on Sunday.
Paul Casey gets back into the winner's circle on European Tour.
A couple of Phil Mickelseon notes. 1. His caddie says unless you saw the lie, criticism of his lay-up is unfounded.
2. For the first time since The Players in 2009, his wife Amy was able to walk a full round following her husband and it seems to have rejuvenated him.
Jhonattan Vegas is the first rookie to the lead the FedEx Cup Standings. Let's file this under moderately interesting.
Interesting interview with R&A chief exec. Peter Dawson about the possible change of rules relating to viewers getting players disqualified.
After parting ways with Tiger Woods recently, Golf Digest is partnering with Rickie Fowler. Good move for both, I believe.
Other public venues that host major championships should take note of this Kiwah Island initiative to let the public play under major conditions.
Saw this piece about Bubba Watson deciding not to upgrade to new equipment and found it even more poignant after his win. And of course, here's what was in his bag for the victory.
If he's unwilling to go to Q-School, John Daly has no right to complain.
CBS extends broadcast contract for the PGA Championship.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)