Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Jim Furyk, Player of the Year?

With a winless drought that sat at 29 months entering this year the odds were certainly against Jim Furyk earning his first player of the year nod in 2010.

But after winning the Tour Championship -- becoming the only player on the PGA Tour with three wins this season -- and the FedEx Cup, that's almost exactly what he will do despite being a non-factor in all four of the year's major championships.

A further analysis of his statistics would show, however, that he may be a worthy winner indeed.

In addition to the three victories and winning the season-long points title, he also made the cut in all but three tournaments -- two of which were majors, unfortunately -- he had seven top 10s and finished inside the top-25 72 per cent of the time he made the cut.

And according to his playing stats, there's no single reason other than overall consistency that stands out as a key factor -- his 276-yard driving distance average ranks him 174th, for example.

Aside from his driving accuracy -- where he ranks 10th on Tour -- the only other categories in which Furyk is inside even the top 50 are the ones that seem to matter most.

Wins (3) Rank: First
Money list ($4,809,622) Rank: Second
Scoring Average (69.78) Rank: Fifth


Matt Kuchar went into the PGA Tour Playoffs as the front runner to be named player of the year based on his consistency and despite his lack of a victory.

When he won at The Barclay's he strengthened his case and if the scoring system for the FedEx Cup had not been changed -- ostensibly to make the finish of the Tour Championship more exciting -- he would have been the recipient of the $10-million instead of Furyk.

But if much of Kuchar's case was based on his consistent play, then certainly that same argument applies to Furyk.

Saturday, September 25, 2010

Steroid speculation: a home run phenomenon?

When Jose Bautista hit his 50th home run on Thursday -- and then followed it up with two more on Friday night -- he accomplished something very few individuals in Major League history before him have. In fact, he became just the 26th player to belt 50 home runs in a single season.

(For context, you can count Hank Aaron, Ted Williams and Frank Robinson among the group that has never had 50 round-trippers in a year.)

Ever since it became apparent that Bautista might have a chance to a) break the Blue Jays club record and b) hit 50, we've been subject to rampant speculation about what substances aided his power surge.

It comes with the post-steroid-era-territory they argued.

It's just the nature of the game -- thanks to McGwire and Sosa and Bonds and A-Rod and Canseco -- they said.

And while I can understand the concept -- fool me once, shame on me; fool me twice, shame on baseball -- I'm not sure that I entirely agree.

Sure, the question must be asked -- it would be the chemically-enhanced elephant in the room if it wasn't -- but where is the line that determines what requires ongoing steroid investigation and what does not?

If a player was to have a spike in other statistical categories would we pay attention the same way?

My assertion is no, we wouldn't.

Take Brian Roberts of the Baltimore Orioles for example. In 2007 he stole 50 bases, and while he has always been a threat on the base paths -- his season totals in years where he has played a full schedule are 23, 29, 27, 36, 50, 40, 30 -- that 50 steal season was far and away his best year, having been caught only seven times.

Roberts, of course, admitted to steroid use later that year -- though he claims it was a one-time deal in 2003.

Not convinced? Okay, how about 2009 AL Cy Young winner Zack Grienke? Last year he struck out 242 batters; his highest previous total was 183. His ERA of 2.16 last year was also more than a run and a half less than his career average of 3.78.

It's not to say that this offers concrete evidence of Grienke's guilt -- certainly I'm not even trying to speculate about his possible use of PEDs -- but rather to point the example of the strikeout -- a pitcher's equivalent to the home run -- and ask why it doesn't receive the same scrutiny?

And maybe it all goes back to McGwire, Sosa and the home run chase of 1998. After the player strike wiped out the 1994 World Series it was a key event in re-igniting the passion of many fans.

Some, however, have never come back and the trust level among those that did has been significantly crippled.

It's not that I feel bad for Bautista -- his performance this season will certainly produce a nice financial windfall at some point -- but rather that I feel bad for fans of the game.

When the days of fans being awed and inspired by the performance of a spectacular athlete without feeling the need to question the origin, it's them that loses out.

Sunday, September 12, 2010

A new number one?

If you went back in time one year, you would have been hard-pressed to find anyone bold enough to predict that Tiger Woods would be replaced as the top-ranked player in the world anytime soon.

Of course, we’ve learned a lot about Woods—perhaps more than we really would have wanted to—in that time and, on the heels of a sub-par season, the discussion has moved from “will we” to “when will we” see a new number one golfer.

By now Phil Mickelson, Lee Westwood and even Steve Stricker have had an opportunity—mathematically speaking—to seize Woods’ crown, yet none have been able to seal the deal.

With Woods officially getting Tour Championship two weeks from now off, you would think both Mickelson and Stricker have a realistic shot to finally do so.

Unless, of course, there is another player on that perch before then and with the way Martin Kaymer has played this season that could be a distinct possibility.

Average fans will know Kaymer thanks to his victory at the PGA Championship last month, but there has certainly been more to his season that that triumph alone.

Aside from one minor blip—being cut at The Masters—Kaymer’s form has been exceptional in the tournaments with the best fields.

In addition to his PGA win, he finished inside the top-10 in both the U.S. Open and Open Championship and has been inside the top 20—with a third place showing at the WGC-CA Championship—in all three of the season’s World Golf Championship events thus far.

And it’s not like his European Tour play has been lacking any shine either. With his win at the KLM Open in the Netherlands today he has two victories on the year and leads the Race to Dubai standings.

He entered the final round with a one-shot lead and said that since he had the lead going into the final round, he expected himself to win.

Sound like anyone else we know?

He entered the week tied for fifth in the World Golf Rankings with Jim Furyk and should see himself rise when the numbers are tabulated tomorrow.

After his win was official today Kaymer said that he wanted to win the Order of Merit and with two tournaments still to play on the European Tour before a break for the Ryder Cup, it’s entirely possible that the European side will be boasting the number one player in the world when they meet the U.S. in Wales.

DJ making a Fed Ex Cup run

You had to feel good for Dustin Johnson as he closed out the BMW Championship with a one-shot victory.

He played well down the stretch—he was the only guy on the leaderboard to play bogey-free on the back-nine—and it will certainly go a long way to knocking off the “can’t play on Sunday” stigma that seems to hovering over him this year.

He now sits second in the Fed Ex Cup standings (behind Matt Kuchar) and is right in the hunt to win the Fed Ex Cup title and be named player of the year.

The win (his fourth career PGA Tour title) also makes him the winingest PGA Tour player in his 20’s.

Break could be good for Woods

As disappointing as it may be for Tiger Woods to be missing out on the Tour Championship in two weeks, it may actually be a good thing for him.

He now has three weeks to fine-tune his game in order to be ready for the Ryder Cup. It also gives him some more time to get down with coach Sean Foley and adjust even more to the changes in his swing, which seems to be coming around and is miles better than it was a month ago when his play seemed to bottom out at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational.

Monday, September 6, 2010

U.S. Ryder Cup picks

With U.S. Ryder Cup captain Corey Pavin set to make his wildcard picks tomorrow there will be much speculation about who will be chosen and who should be chosen. If given the choice, here’s who I would pick.

Tiger Woods. If European captain Colin Montgomerie can leave a top-10 player in Paul Casey off of his team, can Pavin leave the world’s number one—albeit in a severely down year—off of his squad? No, no he cannot. Woods is a lock.

Zach Johnson. The 2007 Masters champ has been steady—with made cuts in 20 of 22 events—but not spectacular—a win at Colonial and a T3 at the PGA Championship and no other top-10s—this season. His record at the Ryder Cup is a pedestrian 1-2-1 and he’s not much better in the President’s Cup at 4-4, having lost his Sunday singles match in each of those three events. Still his accuracy off the tee combined with his solid short game and putting would make him a good compliment to some of the longer hitters on the American team. The fact that he’s won a major and competed in others makes him a good candidate to deal with the pressure of the Ryder Cup. His poor record in the Open Championship—one T20 and nothing else inside the top 45—could play against him.

Stewart Cink. With the lack of veteran leadership on the team (four of the eight automatic spots are rookies) the U.S. needs a strong older presence and Cink will help to fill that void. He has an okay record in team competitions—4-4-1, 1-3 singles in Ryder Cup and 9-7-2, 3-1 singles in President’s Cup—a strong match play record—21-11 in the WGC Accenture Match Play with one runner up and one third place finish—and, of course, he seems to play well in Britain, having won the Open Championship last year. He has not won this year and he has only three top-10s, but of all the veteran players out there that can combine experience with quality play this season, he’s the best choice.

Anthony Kim. Yes, he had major surgery that kept him out of action for most of the summer. And yes, he hasn’t made a cut since returning to action at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational last month. But simply put, Anthony Kim is made for the risk/reward nature of match play golf. He went 2-1-1 with a Sunday singles victory in the Ryder Cup at Valhalla two years ago and was 3-1 with a singles victory at the President’s Cup last year. He lost to Ross Fisher in the final of the Volvo World Match Play last fall and he is a certifiable birdie machine—as evidenced by his back nine charge on Sunday at Augusta earlier this year. With just under a month until play kicks off in Wales, he has more than enough time to find his game.

Others in the mix: Rickie Fowler. JB Holmes. Lucas Glover.