WITH A NICE BREAK for the players before the third leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs (or to avoid NFL opening weekend) the PGA Tour is dark this week for the first time in 2011. What better time than now to look back at the past eight months and assess who the current front runners for Player of the Year are.
First, the criteria.
Consistency. As far as naming a player of the year, I mean opinion it's imperative to very few peaks and valleys along the way. (He wouldn't be a contender for this, but for an example of what I mean look at Tommy Gainey -- 15/29 cuts made, 4 top 5s, 6 tops 10s, 9 top 25s.)
Wins. This is pretty self explanatory. It's hard to be a threat to be player of the year if you didn't win at least once.
Contended in majors. This could be a major X-factor in the entire debate. If someone won a major did they have a better year than someone who was a factor in several. Tough question to answer.
1. Webb Simpson. He obviously has the wins part down with two in the last three tournaments, but easily could have had a third if not for a penalty he called on himself during the final round of the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. (Assuming everything else was equal and he did win in New Orleans he would currently lead the money list by almost $800K over 2nd place Donald and more than $1-million over 3rd place Watney.) As far as consistency goes, he's made the cut in 19 of 22 events and finished in the top 25 17 times. He leads the Tour in rounds in the 60s (49), par five performance (a combined -129 on par fives) and is third in scoring average (69.30). It's somewhat incredible when you look at some of his other numbers. Based on the Tour's core statistics -- driving distance, fairways, greens in regulation, putting, sand saves -- his best ranking is 17th in GIR. But even so, he's first in the all around ranking. The only real flaw on his season resume is his lack of contention in majors, but he made the cut in two of the three he played (US, British) and posted respectable finishes with a T14 and a T16. From June onward, other than a missed cut at the PGA Championship, his worst finish is that T16 at the British. At the end of last year, he was ranked 209th in the world; he's now ranked 14th.
2. Luke Donald. The current world number one was not able to win his first major championship this year, but his consistency is unrivaled. In 16 events, he missed only two cuts, has 6 top 5s, 11 top 10s and 13 top 25s (His two top25s that were not top10s were T18 and T17s). His only PGA Tour win this season was a downright dominant performance at the WGC - Accenture Match Play Championship, where he never even had to play the 18th hole and only playing the 17th once. He never trailed in any of his six matches and if you added up all the holes where there was a winner, he would be ahead 41-15. He was a factor in two of the four majors with a T4 at the Masters -- where a double bogey at the par-three 12th really sunk his chances -- and a T8 at the PGA Championship.
3. Charl Schwartzel. Has solid representation across all three categories. Of course, he won the Masters in thrilling fashion, closing his final round with four straight birdies, but he was also one of only 11 players to make the cut in all four majors. If that's not enough, he actually had the low aggregate in those events, finishing a combined four-under par -- which was 10 shots better than his next closest pursuers, Steve Stricker and Sergio Garcia -- and none of his results were worse than a T16. If there is a blemish on his candidacy it's that his victory at Augusta was his only win and he only has three top 10s. That number can be a little misleading though, considering he's been in the top25 in 10 of 14 starts and hasn't missed a cut. He also only has two results outside of the top 30.
4. Keegan Bradley. Seemingly became the poster boy for the new era of golf with his thrilling victory at the PGA Championship. Both of his wins -- the PGA Championship and the HP Byron Nelson Championship -- came in sudden death playoffs and while his two victories are certainly impressive -- he is just the third player to win a major championship in his first appearance -- he doesn't quite have the same consistency that his counterparts do. In addition to his wins, he had two other top 10s and six more top 25s.
5. Nick Watney. With as good of a season as he had, it's hard to imagine that it could have been even better. The former Fresno State Bulldog opened the year with five straight top-10s -- including a win the at the WGC - Cadillac Championship -- and went into the Masters as one of the favorites, having turned in no result worse than a T13. He finished a disappointing 46th that week, by far his worst result at Augusta National in four appearances. It didn't put a damper on his season though, as he ended up with two wins (adding the AT&T National in July), 9 top 10s and 14 top 25s in 16/19 made cuts. On the year, he's fourth in scoring average, eighth in strokes gained putting and third on the money list. While he wasn't necessarily at his best in the majors, he did end up with a T10 at the PGA Championship. Bonus marks for finish T4 at the Players, the PGA Tour's marquee non-major.
Others that could get into the mix with a strong finish to the playoffs.
Adam Scott. Won the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational and posted strong major results (T2, Cut, T25, 7).
Dustin Johnson. Won the Barclays, 5 of 6 top10s were top5s and also solid in the majors (T38, T23, T2, Cut.
Steve Stricker. Two wins (Memorial and John Deere Classic), made all 17 cuts, 14/17 top 25, no results worse than T42, was steady in majors (T11, T19, T12, T12).
Gary Woodland. One win, one playoff loss, 18/22 cuts made, 12 top25s. Was at least Top 30 in all four majors (T24, T23, T30, T12).
K.J. Choi. Won The Players and was a threat in the Masters, finishing T8. Had 6 top 10s and 8 top 25s.
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
Thursday, September 1, 2011
Deutsche Bank picks
Rickie Fowler, 40-1. He produced a T41 here last year, which is nothing to write home about, but he seems like a good fit for the required scoring. Not only is he fourth on Tour in birdie average (4.24) but he's third in eagles. And while it may be a bit of a statistical anomoly, of the 56 eagles carded by players that have finished in the top 10 during the life of this tournament -- first played in 2003 -- 17.8 per cent (10) have come from those that have finished first.
Camilo Villegas, 50-1. I tweeted this earlier this week, but Villegas is coming off his first back-to-back top-10s since the beginning of last season when he went 3, T8 and then won the Honda Classic. He's finished T61 here the last two years, but in the first two years this was a playoff event he was T3 and T9. He's also shot six straight rounds in the 60s -- with his highest score being a pair of 68s -- and in both of those tournaments he hit 83.3 per cent of his Green in regulation.
Bill Haas, 70-1. In five appearances here, he's made all five cuts and has four top-22 finishes. He's lost in playoffs twice this year and is looking to secure a spot on the U.S. President's Cup team, where his dad will be an assistant captain.
John Senden, 80-1.
Longshot: Kyle Stanley, 125-1.
Camilo Villegas, 50-1. I tweeted this earlier this week, but Villegas is coming off his first back-to-back top-10s since the beginning of last season when he went 3, T8 and then won the Honda Classic. He's finished T61 here the last two years, but in the first two years this was a playoff event he was T3 and T9. He's also shot six straight rounds in the 60s -- with his highest score being a pair of 68s -- and in both of those tournaments he hit 83.3 per cent of his Green in regulation.
Bill Haas, 70-1. In five appearances here, he's made all five cuts and has four top-22 finishes. He's lost in playoffs twice this year and is looking to secure a spot on the U.S. President's Cup team, where his dad will be an assistant captain.
John Senden, 80-1.
Longshot: Kyle Stanley, 125-1.
Saturday, August 27, 2011
The resilience of Dustin Johnson
AFTER BUILDING A three-shot lead heading into the final round of last year's U.S. Open at Pebble Beach Dustin Johnson was poised to win his first -- and what many presumed to be the first of many -- major championship.
His caddie at the time, Bobby Brown, told anyone that would listen that his man was "a flatliner" and that the severity of the moment wouldn't get to him.
A triple-bogey at the second, followed up by a double at the third to open his final round and Johnson was on his way to a round of 82 and a T8.
So it is fair to say that at times -- particularly under pressure -- he has a propensity for loose shots.
Exhibit A - the aforementioned tee shot at 2 at Pebble last year.
Exhibit B - tee shot on 18 at Whistling Straits in last year's PGA Championship.
Exhibit C - second shot on 14 at Royal St. Georges in this year's Open Championship.
But just when we think his sublime talents may be eclipsed by the scar tissue that we assume must be there, he rallies.
The obvious first step of that was the fact that after what happened to him at Pebble he was in contention at the PGA.
Then, at the Ryder Cup, after starting out with three losses -- twice with Mickelson and once with Furyk -- he gets matched up with the man that won the PGA, Martin Kaymer, in Sunday singles and summarily beats him 6&4.
And while it was nearly a year since his last win -- last year's third leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the BMW Championship -- he puts himself right in the thick of the FedEx Cup race again this year with a win at the Barclays.
Yes, it was a rain shortened event.
Yes, it was the second such win of his career to have that distinction.
And no, it was not a major championship.
But at 27 years of age, Johnson has 5 PGA Tour titles -- that's more than any other card-carrying PGA Tour player in his 20s.
(In case you were wondering, Sean O'Hair, 29, is second with four.)
In fact, only 23 active PGA Tour members have more wins than him and a few of them -- David Duval, Jose Maria Olazabal, Lee Janzen, Mike Weir and Steve Elkington, Rocco Mediate -- are more on the downside of their careers.
Further, he joins Tiger Woods as the only players to win at least once in each of their first four seasons on the Tour.
On top of that he has four top 10s and six top 25s in the last 9 major championships.
So while some may look at the ones that got away, Johnson has the type of talent that can erase those in a hurry.
His caddie at the time, Bobby Brown, told anyone that would listen that his man was "a flatliner" and that the severity of the moment wouldn't get to him.
A triple-bogey at the second, followed up by a double at the third to open his final round and Johnson was on his way to a round of 82 and a T8.
So it is fair to say that at times -- particularly under pressure -- he has a propensity for loose shots.
Exhibit A - the aforementioned tee shot at 2 at Pebble last year.
Exhibit B - tee shot on 18 at Whistling Straits in last year's PGA Championship.
Exhibit C - second shot on 14 at Royal St. Georges in this year's Open Championship.
But just when we think his sublime talents may be eclipsed by the scar tissue that we assume must be there, he rallies.
The obvious first step of that was the fact that after what happened to him at Pebble he was in contention at the PGA.
Then, at the Ryder Cup, after starting out with three losses -- twice with Mickelson and once with Furyk -- he gets matched up with the man that won the PGA, Martin Kaymer, in Sunday singles and summarily beats him 6&4.
And while it was nearly a year since his last win -- last year's third leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the BMW Championship -- he puts himself right in the thick of the FedEx Cup race again this year with a win at the Barclays.
Yes, it was a rain shortened event.
Yes, it was the second such win of his career to have that distinction.
And no, it was not a major championship.
But at 27 years of age, Johnson has 5 PGA Tour titles -- that's more than any other card-carrying PGA Tour player in his 20s.
(In case you were wondering, Sean O'Hair, 29, is second with four.)
In fact, only 23 active PGA Tour members have more wins than him and a few of them -- David Duval, Jose Maria Olazabal, Lee Janzen, Mike Weir and Steve Elkington, Rocco Mediate -- are more on the downside of their careers.
Further, he joins Tiger Woods as the only players to win at least once in each of their first four seasons on the Tour.
On top of that he has four top 10s and six top 25s in the last 9 major championships.
So while some may look at the ones that got away, Johnson has the type of talent that can erase those in a hurry.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
PGA Championship picks
Phil Mickelson 25-1. I'm not sure why so many people are down on Mickelson right now. His scoring average this year is better than all but one of his last five seasons and he's on a pace comparable to his last couple. He also had his best ever finish at the Open championship with a T2. During his career he has one win at the PGA, 8 top 10s and 12 top 25s. When David Toms won here at the Atlanta Athletic Club in 01, he was the runner-up and even pulled level with Toms a couple of times during the final round. Add it up and at 25-1 he's an absolute steal.
Jason Day 28-1. In the last calendar year, take the marquee events on the PGA Tour -- the majors, the WGCs, The Players and the playoffs. Then look at Day's results in those tournaments: T10, T2, 2, T30, T9, T45, T4, T6, T5, T2, T54, T17.
Webb Simpson 80-1. Call him a Matt Kuchar lite. In 18 events this year, Simpson has made the cut in 16 of them and finished outside the top 25 only two other times --T46 in his first start in Hawaii and T69 at the Players. He has 6 top 10s, a pair of runner-up finishes and more rounds in the 60s on Tour this year than anyone. He also posted a T14 at the U.S. Open a T16 at the British Open -- his first two major appearances. He's also trending up, posting nothing worse than that T16 in the last two months.
Y.E. Yang 80-1. There are players that just seem to do well in majors and Yang -- at least in 2011 -- is shaping up as one of them. His worst finish in a major this year was T20 at the Masters.
Francesco Molinari 100-1. In two previous PGA Championship appearances, the younger of the Flying Molinari brothers has posted a T33 and a T10. He's 3rd on the European Tour in driving accuracy (73.6) and 15th in Greens in regulation (74). In his victory at last year's WGC-HSBC champions, he was a ball-striking machine hitting 76.8 per cent of his fairways and 65.3 per cent of GIR. That produced just an average 25 putts per round and only 4 birdies the entire week and is just the type of formula he will need this week. He's also coming off a T15 at last week's WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, his best result since a T8 at the Italian Open in June.
Worth a long shot: Scott Verplank 250-1. His best result in any major championship is a T7 and he's accomplished it three times but the first was the '01 PGA at Atlanta Athletic Club. He's had a steady but not spectacular season, highlighted by a runner-up finish to Mickelson in Houston and is coming off a T14 at the Greenbrier.
Jason Day 28-1. In the last calendar year, take the marquee events on the PGA Tour -- the majors, the WGCs, The Players and the playoffs. Then look at Day's results in those tournaments: T10, T2, 2, T30, T9, T45, T4, T6, T5, T2, T54, T17.
Webb Simpson 80-1. Call him a Matt Kuchar lite. In 18 events this year, Simpson has made the cut in 16 of them and finished outside the top 25 only two other times --T46 in his first start in Hawaii and T69 at the Players. He has 6 top 10s, a pair of runner-up finishes and more rounds in the 60s on Tour this year than anyone. He also posted a T14 at the U.S. Open a T16 at the British Open -- his first two major appearances. He's also trending up, posting nothing worse than that T16 in the last two months.
Y.E. Yang 80-1. There are players that just seem to do well in majors and Yang -- at least in 2011 -- is shaping up as one of them. His worst finish in a major this year was T20 at the Masters.
Francesco Molinari 100-1. In two previous PGA Championship appearances, the younger of the Flying Molinari brothers has posted a T33 and a T10. He's 3rd on the European Tour in driving accuracy (73.6) and 15th in Greens in regulation (74). In his victory at last year's WGC-HSBC champions, he was a ball-striking machine hitting 76.8 per cent of his fairways and 65.3 per cent of GIR. That produced just an average 25 putts per round and only 4 birdies the entire week and is just the type of formula he will need this week. He's also coming off a T15 at last week's WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, his best result since a T8 at the Italian Open in June.
Worth a long shot: Scott Verplank 250-1. His best result in any major championship is a T7 and he's accomplished it three times but the first was the '01 PGA at Atlanta Athletic Club. He's had a steady but not spectacular season, highlighted by a runner-up finish to Mickelson in Houston and is coming off a T14 at the Greenbrier.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
RBC Canadian Open picks
Ben Crane 66-1. Yes, it's been just about three months since Crane's last top 10 this year at The Heritage (T6), but he's 16th on Tour in driving accuracy and with the rough apparently quite juicy around Shaughnessy this week, that could be a pivotal trait. And keeping in mind that performance, the green sizes at Shaughnessy will be reminiscent of Harbour Town Golf Links where in his last five appearances Crane has posted: T12, T23, T29, T26, T6. There's also the matter of the T2 he turned in the last time the Open came here in 2005, where he was one of only 10 players at level par or better.
Ryan Moore 28-1. He's missed only one cut in 15 events this year (US Open) and has three top 10s and 6 top 25s in that span. He's coming off a solid but not spectacular three-tournament stretch where he finished T2 at the AT&T National and T28 at the Open Championship, where he one-under par rounds to bookend his week. He shared second with Crane here in 2005 and the Tacoma, WA native should have plenty of local support this week.
Paul Casey 50-1. Since opening season on European Tour with a top-20 and then a win, Casey has struggled this year, with just 3 more top 25s and no more top 10s. But that's a lot of value for a guy who was once the third ranked player in the world and in the last six WGC events has finished 2, T6, T22, T6, T17, T18.
Brian Gay 40-1. Again there is the Harbour Town connection for a pick. In 2009, Gay obliterated the field at the Heritage by 10 shots, winning with a record 20-under score. He's second on Tour this year in driving accuracy, finding the fairway 73.79 per cent of the time.
Tom Pernice Jr. 100-1. He's on form this season with 12/12 cuts made on the Champions Tour, five top-10s and 10 top-25s. On top of that he's made the cut in three of four PGA Tour events, including a T2 at the Viking Classic last week. He finished T14 the last time the Open came to Shaughnessy.
Ryan Moore 28-1. He's missed only one cut in 15 events this year (US Open) and has three top 10s and 6 top 25s in that span. He's coming off a solid but not spectacular three-tournament stretch where he finished T2 at the AT&T National and T28 at the Open Championship, where he one-under par rounds to bookend his week. He shared second with Crane here in 2005 and the Tacoma, WA native should have plenty of local support this week.
Paul Casey 50-1. Since opening season on European Tour with a top-20 and then a win, Casey has struggled this year, with just 3 more top 25s and no more top 10s. But that's a lot of value for a guy who was once the third ranked player in the world and in the last six WGC events has finished 2, T6, T22, T6, T17, T18.
Brian Gay 40-1. Again there is the Harbour Town connection for a pick. In 2009, Gay obliterated the field at the Heritage by 10 shots, winning with a record 20-under score. He's second on Tour this year in driving accuracy, finding the fairway 73.79 per cent of the time.
Tom Pernice Jr. 100-1. He's on form this season with 12/12 cuts made on the Champions Tour, five top-10s and 10 top-25s. On top of that he's made the cut in three of four PGA Tour events, including a T2 at the Viking Classic last week. He finished T14 the last time the Open came to Shaughnessy.
Monday, June 20, 2011
Does golf need Rory McIlroy to be the next Tiger? Not quite
RORY McILROY IS a pretty exceptional golfer, even by the standards of the most exceptional golfers in the world. So when he dominated the field at the U.S. Open this past weekend by eight shots -- the largest margin of victory in a major since Tiger Woods lapped the field by 15 strokes at the 2000 U.S. Open -- it led many pundits and casual fans alike to draw a straight line from McIlroy to, well, Woods.
Search "McIlroy" and "Tiger" on Twitter and you'll get a robust and varied selection of opinions on the topic.
I understand the concept. As an individual sport, the prevailing wisdom is that golf needs at least one transcendent figure to rule over the sport, while simultaneously pushing it forward.
(Think Federer or Nadal in tennis currently.)
From a playing perspective, McIlroy has those credentials. For starters he has just about the most aesthetically pleasing golf swing -- maybe ever.
Then you look at his performance in the last four major championships and his ability becomes even more clear:
But maybe the real issue here is that it's possible that the golf world doesn't need another Tiger; they need a Rory.
Yes, television audiences -- particularly in the United States -- crave the name-brand recognition that comes from a player who is at top of mind when discussing potential victors at any and all tournaments.
The era's of golf have also been defined by the titanic players and personalities that dominated them.
Before Tiger there was Norman; before Norman there was Ballesteros; before Ballesteros there was Watson; before Watson there was Nicklaus; before Nicklaus there was Palmer; before Palmer there was Hogan and Nelson; and before that there was Jones and Hagen
The point is each player carved their own identity while also helping to shape the landscape of golf. And without some of them, maybe we wouldn't have golf on TV every week; or have non-European players regularly travel over seas every July to play the world's oldest golf tournament; or think about the concept of a golf world tour.
So maybe golf does need Rory to be a star, but they need him to do it in his way.
The dawn of a new day in golf is upon us. The game will return to the Olympics in five short years. The talent pool of high level competitive golfers may still be deepest on American soil, but that won't be much of a factor in a field of 60 at the Olympics.
Golf needs a star that wants to win every week and even if they end up taking it on the chin, they still answer questions like they played well.
Golf needs a star that shows emotion in ways other than anger and remorse and still smiles if things aren't going their way.
Golf needs a star that isn't afraid to let the public see what he's really like. One that is active enough on Twitter to know what #alicebucketlist is.
Golf could still use a Tiger, but it really needs a Rory.
Search "McIlroy" and "Tiger" on Twitter and you'll get a robust and varied selection of opinions on the topic.
- -Athlete of the Month: Rory Mcilroy >> will replace Tiger Woods as the face of golf
- -Rory McILROY is going to be better than Tiger.
- -Rory McIlroy dominated the US open.....though I think people should slow down with the Tiger Woods comparisons
- -Really? Rory McIlroy wins ONE major and all of a sudden he's the next Tiger Woods? Please. ESPN should be embarrassed. http://es.pn/kuxcD9
I understand the concept. As an individual sport, the prevailing wisdom is that golf needs at least one transcendent figure to rule over the sport, while simultaneously pushing it forward.
(Think Federer or Nadal in tennis currently.)
From a playing perspective, McIlroy has those credentials. For starters he has just about the most aesthetically pleasing golf swing -- maybe ever.
Then you look at his performance in the last four major championships and his ability becomes even more clear:
- His worst finish -- a tie for 15th at The Masters earlier this year -- came after he led for the first three rounds and unraveled on a nightmarish in-ward nine
- He's shot under-par rounds in 13 of the 16
- He tied the lowest ever round in a major championship with his 63 in the first round of the Open Championship at St. Andrews last year
- And he's had at least a share of the lead in three of the four, and it would have been all four if he could cash-in a birdie on the 72nd hole at Whistling Straits last August
When Ernie Els won the U.S. Open at the very same Congressional CC in 1997 -- the same year as Woods' major break through at The Masters -- he cashed a cheque for $465,000.It's pretty unlikely McIlroy can have the kind of dramatic effect on the size of the purses, even if he went out and won the next three majors.
When Woods won it in walkaway fashion at Pebble Beach in 2000, he banked $800,000. That's a 72 per cent increase in prize money in three years.
For his victory yesterday, McIlroy earned $1.35-million -- or in other words, a 40 per cent increase over Woods' total in 2000 and a 196 per cent increase over Els' winnings.
But maybe the real issue here is that it's possible that the golf world doesn't need another Tiger; they need a Rory.
Yes, television audiences -- particularly in the United States -- crave the name-brand recognition that comes from a player who is at top of mind when discussing potential victors at any and all tournaments.
The era's of golf have also been defined by the titanic players and personalities that dominated them.
Before Tiger there was Norman; before Norman there was Ballesteros; before Ballesteros there was Watson; before Watson there was Nicklaus; before Nicklaus there was Palmer; before Palmer there was Hogan and Nelson; and before that there was Jones and Hagen
The point is each player carved their own identity while also helping to shape the landscape of golf. And without some of them, maybe we wouldn't have golf on TV every week; or have non-European players regularly travel over seas every July to play the world's oldest golf tournament; or think about the concept of a golf world tour.
So maybe golf does need Rory to be a star, but they need him to do it in his way.
The dawn of a new day in golf is upon us. The game will return to the Olympics in five short years. The talent pool of high level competitive golfers may still be deepest on American soil, but that won't be much of a factor in a field of 60 at the Olympics.
Golf needs a star that wants to win every week and even if they end up taking it on the chin, they still answer questions like they played well.
Golf needs a star that shows emotion in ways other than anger and remorse and still smiles if things aren't going their way.
Golf needs a star that isn't afraid to let the public see what he's really like. One that is active enough on Twitter to know what #alicebucketlist is.
Golf could still use a Tiger, but it really needs a Rory.
Monday, April 18, 2011
Monday bites: Valero Texas Open
On the PGA Tour you're considered a rookie when it's your first full year with exemptions. So even if you've played in events previously, you're still considered to be in your first year. With all that said, Brendan Steele really is a rookie on the PGA Tour as prior to this year, he had not tee'd it up in a PGA event (for context, Matteo Manaserro is a decade younger and has already played in six PGA Tour sanctioned events and won twice on the European Tour). And after recording pars on his last 11 holes he's also a winner on the PGA Tour, winning the Valero Texas Open by one stroke over Kevin Chappell. Prior to this week, his best finish on Tour was a T17 at the Farmers Insurance Open. And in that tournament his end result wasn't nearly as notable as what he had to say about his final round playing partner, Tiger Woods.
From being notable for what you said, to being notable for how you played -- not bad. On top of all that, he gets a two year exemption and an invitation to next year's Masters.
Shots of the week
"I don't think he gave it everything today," Steele told SI. "Once it started going in the wrong direction, I don’t think it had his full attention."
From being notable for what you said, to being notable for how you played -- not bad. On top of all that, he gets a two year exemption and an invitation to next year's Masters.
Shots of the week
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