Thursday, August 11, 2011

PGA Championship picks

Phil Mickelson 25-1. I'm not sure why so many people are down on Mickelson right now. His scoring average this year is better than all but one of his last five seasons and he's on a pace comparable to his last couple. He also had his best ever finish at the Open championship with a T2. During his career he has one win at the PGA, 8 top 10s and 12 top 25s. When David Toms won here at the Atlanta Athletic Club in 01, he was the runner-up and even pulled level with Toms a couple of times during the final round. Add it up and at 25-1 he's an absolute steal.

Jason Day 28-1. In the last calendar year, take the marquee events on the PGA Tour -- the majors, the WGCs, The Players and the playoffs. Then look at Day's results in those tournaments: T10, T2, 2, T30, T9, T45, T4, T6, T5, T2, T54, T17.

Webb Simpson 80-1. Call him a Matt Kuchar lite. In 18 events this year, Simpson has made the cut in 16 of them and finished outside the top 25 only two other times --T46 in his first start in Hawaii and T69 at the Players. He has 6 top 10s, a pair of runner-up finishes and more rounds in the 60s on Tour this year than anyone. He also posted a T14 at the U.S. Open a T16 at the British Open -- his first two major appearances. He's also trending up, posting nothing worse than that T16 in the last two months.

Y.E. Yang 80-1. There are players that just seem to do well in majors and Yang -- at least in 2011 -- is shaping up as one of them. His worst finish in a major this year was T20 at the Masters.

Francesco Molinari 100-1.
In two previous PGA Championship appearances, the younger of the Flying Molinari brothers has posted a T33 and a T10. He's 3rd on the European Tour in driving accuracy (73.6) and 15th in Greens in regulation (74). In his victory at last year's WGC-HSBC champions, he was a ball-striking machine hitting 76.8 per cent of his fairways and 65.3 per cent of GIR. That produced just an average 25 putts per round and only 4 birdies the entire week and is just the type of formula he will need this week. He's also coming off a T15 at last week's WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, his best result since a T8 at the Italian Open in June.

Worth a long shot: Scott Verplank 250-1. His best result in any major championship is a T7 and he's accomplished it three times but the first was the '01 PGA at Atlanta Athletic Club. He's had a steady but not spectacular season, highlighted by a runner-up finish to Mickelson in Houston and is coming off a T14 at the Greenbrier.

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