Course vitals
Yardage: 7,457
Par: 72
Designed by: Rees Jones
Bunkers: 60
Water Hazards: 13
Green speeds: 13-feet
2010 difficulty rank: 14 of 52.
Defending Champion: Anthony Kim
Course record: 63, Adam Scott (2008).
Foursome Picks
JB Holmes, 33-1. A win and only a win, will get JB Holmes into the field for the Masters next week. His play has been steady this year with no missed cuts, a pair of T5s and four finishing at least T13 in four of his six events. He was a runner-up here the last time he played two years, ironically while also trying to play himself into the field at Augusta.
Steve Marino, 40-1. It's hard not to like Marino when you consider that he's already equalled his number of top-10s from all of last season and he's been a serious contender on Sunday in three of the seven tournaments he's played so far. The three other times he's been a runner-up in his career he's made the cut in his next start and twice posted top-25 finishes. He's been in top-20 the last two years in Houston with a T14 and T19.
Vaughn Taylor, 66-1. Solid but not spectacular. That would probably be the most apt way to describe the start to Taylor's season. He's made the cut in six of his seven tournaments, placing T26, T25 and T25 at Pebble Beach, the Hope and Riviera respectively. He lost in a playoff to Anthony Kim here last year on the strength of a final round 68. There could be some added incentive as someone who attended Augusta State, has not played in the Masters since 2008.
Chad Campbell, 80-1. After missing the cut four weeks in a row, Campbell's game has started to show signs of re-emerging. He's made the cut in the last three tournaments he's played, posting a pair of top-30 finishes and playing 10 of his last 12 rounds at or below par. In the past three years in Houston he's finished T25, T49 and T2.
Longshot: Shaun Micheel, 150-1. It's been nearly eight years since his won and only PGA Tour victory at the 2003 PGA Championship. He has yet to record a top-10 this season and in the previous four seasons combined he had just six in 82 tournaments. He's played well here though, with one of those top-10s a fifth place showing last year. He also finished T26 the two years prior to that.
Kraft Nabisco Championship Picks
Karrie Webb, 18-1.
Ai Miyazato, 40-1.
Anna Nordqvist, 50-1.
Se Ri Pak, 125-1.
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Double Dip: Arnold Palmer Invitational
Again, deadlines this week have really messed up my normal blog features.
Rickie Fowler, 14-1. Eventually he's going to break through for a win on the PGA Tour. He let a 54-hole lead slip away at Jack's tournament last year, so it would be somewhat fitting if he came from behind at Arnie's.
Steve Marino, 14-1. I think we learned a lot about Steve Marino in his finish at Pebble Beach earlier this year. In order to tie D.A. Points for the lead he needed to hole a shot from over 200-yards, and he went for it. Unfortunately he pulled it into the Pacific Ocean, made triple-bogey and ended up T4. Still, I think that "I'm here to try and win" mentality goes a long way.
Hunter Mahan, 100-1. Why not? Until yesterday, he had hit the ball so solid all week. His back nine performance in the second round was a clinic in pin-seeking approach shots.
Rickie Fowler, 14-1. Eventually he's going to break through for a win on the PGA Tour. He let a 54-hole lead slip away at Jack's tournament last year, so it would be somewhat fitting if he came from behind at Arnie's.
Steve Marino, 14-1. I think we learned a lot about Steve Marino in his finish at Pebble Beach earlier this year. In order to tie D.A. Points for the lead he needed to hole a shot from over 200-yards, and he went for it. Unfortunately he pulled it into the Pacific Ocean, made triple-bogey and ended up T4. Still, I think that "I'm here to try and win" mentality goes a long way.
Hunter Mahan, 100-1. Why not? Until yesterday, he had hit the ball so solid all week. His back nine performance in the second round was a clinic in pin-seeking approach shots.
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks
With a few deadlines closing in, I don't have time for a full preview this week. So I present to you my picks with limited distraction.
Hunter Mahan, 22-1. Has been one of the early season stars, posting four top-10s in seven starts. He has yet to miss a cut this year and has played well at Bay Hill the last year with a T25, T22 and T6 here.
Sergio Garcia, 50-1. It's been a slow but steady decline for the former world number two, who now finds himself ranked 82nd in the world. His game is showing signs of coming back around, with a top-30 finishes in all four of his events this year. He has also posted five top-10s in nine appearances in Arnie's tournament.
Kevin Na, 50-1. There was an ugly three week stretch where he was cut at Torrey Pines, TPC Scottsdale and Pebble Beach but on both sides of that stretch he posted top-five finishes. He's been in contention the last two years, with a T2 last year and a T11 in 2009.
Aaron Baddeley, 50-1. When you consider the success he's had since reverting from the stack and tilt to his old swing -- a T6 at Pebble Beach and a win at Riviera is never bad -- it makes his last few years less relevant statistically. He had a good stretch here from 03-05 with a sixth, a T56 and a T5.
Longshot: Kevin Streelman, 100-1. In two appearances at Bay Hill he's posted a T66 and a T7. He's coming off his best start of the year with a T15 at Doral two weeks ago.
Hunter Mahan, 22-1. Has been one of the early season stars, posting four top-10s in seven starts. He has yet to miss a cut this year and has played well at Bay Hill the last year with a T25, T22 and T6 here.
Sergio Garcia, 50-1. It's been a slow but steady decline for the former world number two, who now finds himself ranked 82nd in the world. His game is showing signs of coming back around, with a top-30 finishes in all four of his events this year. He has also posted five top-10s in nine appearances in Arnie's tournament.
Kevin Na, 50-1. There was an ugly three week stretch where he was cut at Torrey Pines, TPC Scottsdale and Pebble Beach but on both sides of that stretch he posted top-five finishes. He's been in contention the last two years, with a T2 last year and a T11 in 2009.
Aaron Baddeley, 50-1. When you consider the success he's had since reverting from the stack and tilt to his old swing -- a T6 at Pebble Beach and a win at Riviera is never bad -- it makes his last few years less relevant statistically. He had a good stretch here from 03-05 with a sixth, a T56 and a T5.
Longshot: Kevin Streelman, 100-1. In two appearances at Bay Hill he's posted a T66 and a T7. He's coming off his best start of the year with a T15 at Doral two weeks ago.
Monday, March 21, 2011
Transitions Championship Tournament Backspin
THERE'S NO WAY to know at this time exactly, but we may eventually look back at the playoff earlier this year at the Bob Hope Classic between Jhonattan Vegas, Bill Haas and Gary Woodland and think that was the beginning of something special for all three. And now that Woodland has broken through with a one-shot victory over Webb Simpson at the Transitions Championship, he joins the other two with a PGA Tour victory on his resume. A former college basketball player and a tremendous athlete, Woodland hits the ball a tonne -- he's been in the top 10 in driving distance in all three of his full seasons -- but it was his putting on Sunday (needing just 23 putts) that made all the difference.
Where it was won: His par save at the 18th was unquestionably huge, but it doesn't have quite the same magnitude if not for his play at 17. After carding back-to-back bogeys at 15 and 16, Woodland stepped to the tee at the 215-yard par three and promptly laced a five-iron to just over 16-feet. He then coaxed the putt down the hill from left to right for the bounce back birdie. Without that putt, his par saving putt is to force a playoff not prove to be the eventual winner.
Where it was lost: Webb Simpson. After playing the Snakepit -- 16-18, the toughest stretch on the course -- at four-under throughout the week, Simpson waited until the worst possible time to card his first bogey there on his final hole. He was -7 on the par fives entering the final round, but did not register a birdie all day.
Justin Rose. Despite shooting back-to-back 65s and entering the final round with a one stroke lead, Rose didn't play nearly well enough to win on Sunday. He carded four straight bogeys from the seventh to the 10th. In the first three rounds, not only did he only have three bogeys in total, but on that stretch had carded four birdies and eight pars.
Shots of the week
Stat of the week: In the final round Woodland needed only 23 putts and was an incredible 17 of 17 on putts of 20-feet or less, none more important than the 10-footer he made for par at 18 -- his only par of the back nine.
How I did
-Justin Rose, T5
-John Senden, T15
-Geoff Ogilvy, T28
-Stephen Ames, cut
-Charlie Wii, cut
Early look at next week:
-A nice field for the Arnold Palmer Invitational
-Who I like: Sean O'Hair, Zach Johnson, Brandt Snedeker, Kevin Na.
Where it was won: His par save at the 18th was unquestionably huge, but it doesn't have quite the same magnitude if not for his play at 17. After carding back-to-back bogeys at 15 and 16, Woodland stepped to the tee at the 215-yard par three and promptly laced a five-iron to just over 16-feet. He then coaxed the putt down the hill from left to right for the bounce back birdie. Without that putt, his par saving putt is to force a playoff not prove to be the eventual winner.
Where it was lost: Webb Simpson. After playing the Snakepit -- 16-18, the toughest stretch on the course -- at four-under throughout the week, Simpson waited until the worst possible time to card his first bogey there on his final hole. He was -7 on the par fives entering the final round, but did not register a birdie all day.
Justin Rose. Despite shooting back-to-back 65s and entering the final round with a one stroke lead, Rose didn't play nearly well enough to win on Sunday. He carded four straight bogeys from the seventh to the 10th. In the first three rounds, not only did he only have three bogeys in total, but on that stretch had carded four birdies and eight pars.
Shots of the week
Stat of the week: In the final round Woodland needed only 23 putts and was an incredible 17 of 17 on putts of 20-feet or less, none more important than the 10-footer he made for par at 18 -- his only par of the back nine.
How I did
-Justin Rose, T5
-John Senden, T15
-Geoff Ogilvy, T28
-Stephen Ames, cut
-Charlie Wii, cut
Early look at next week:
-A nice field for the Arnold Palmer Invitational
-Who I like: Sean O'Hair, Zach Johnson, Brandt Snedeker, Kevin Na.
Saturday, March 19, 2011
Trunk Slammer/Double Dip: Transitions Championship
Bill Haas. In the 15 tournaments since he was last cut, Haas won once and was a runner-up twice. His worst result was a T47 and in the 14 other events he finished at least inside the top 35.
Padraig Harrington. Although he carded a one-under 70 in the second round, it probably could have been much lower. He hit 83 per cent of greens in reg, but needed 33 putts overall -- with a 1.933 putts per GIR average.
Sean O'Hair. Not since the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational in early August has O'Hair posted a top-five finish. In fact, his only top-25 came last week with a T24 at the Honda Classic.
Robert Garrigus. Make that four missed cuts, a WD and a T51 since losing in a playoff to Jonathan Byrd at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions.
Ryo Ishikawa. On his month-long tour of the U.S., Ishikawa has been cut twice, been knocked out in the first round at the match play and finished T42 at Doral after a final round 78.
K.J. Choi. Two-time champ cards four bogeys and no birdies to get the weekend off.
Trunk Slammer of the week: Jamie Lovemark. Five missed cuts, a WD, T28 and T58 for the 2010 Nationwide Tour player of the year. Was sitting at -1 standing on the 16th tee, a quadruple bogey and back-to-back bogeys pushed him to five-over.
Double Dip
Jonathan Byrd, 28-1. After winning the first event of the season, Byrd struggled to find his form with three mid-30s finishes, while also being cut twice. He is coming off a T10 at Doral last week though and has hit a lot of greens in reg. If he can make some putts (1.756 per GIR) he could make a run.
Stewart Cink, 66-1. Since wince the '09 British Open, Cink has turned in just four top-10s and only one of those was a full field event. But he knows how to win and has played solid all week. May be a little too far back, but he's worth taking a flyer on.
Jason Day, 100-1/Paul Casey, 80-1. There have been nine rounds of 65 or less this week including one by both of them. If Justin Rose can fire two rounds of 65, why can't they?
Padraig Harrington. Although he carded a one-under 70 in the second round, it probably could have been much lower. He hit 83 per cent of greens in reg, but needed 33 putts overall -- with a 1.933 putts per GIR average.
Sean O'Hair. Not since the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational in early August has O'Hair posted a top-five finish. In fact, his only top-25 came last week with a T24 at the Honda Classic.
Robert Garrigus. Make that four missed cuts, a WD and a T51 since losing in a playoff to Jonathan Byrd at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions.
Ryo Ishikawa. On his month-long tour of the U.S., Ishikawa has been cut twice, been knocked out in the first round at the match play and finished T42 at Doral after a final round 78.
K.J. Choi. Two-time champ cards four bogeys and no birdies to get the weekend off.
Trunk Slammer of the week: Jamie Lovemark. Five missed cuts, a WD, T28 and T58 for the 2010 Nationwide Tour player of the year. Was sitting at -1 standing on the 16th tee, a quadruple bogey and back-to-back bogeys pushed him to five-over.
Double Dip
Jonathan Byrd, 28-1. After winning the first event of the season, Byrd struggled to find his form with three mid-30s finishes, while also being cut twice. He is coming off a T10 at Doral last week though and has hit a lot of greens in reg. If he can make some putts (1.756 per GIR) he could make a run.
Stewart Cink, 66-1. Since wince the '09 British Open, Cink has turned in just four top-10s and only one of those was a full field event. But he knows how to win and has played solid all week. May be a little too far back, but he's worth taking a flyer on.
Jason Day, 100-1/Paul Casey, 80-1. There have been nine rounds of 65 or less this week including one by both of them. If Justin Rose can fire two rounds of 65, why can't they?
Friday, March 18, 2011
Friday Fourball: March 18
Dustin Johnson will have a better year than he did last year. While a cynic would look at how things ended for him at the U.S. Open and the PGA Championship, it would be hard to deny that Dustin Johnson had a pretty good 2010. He won a pair of prestigious tournaments in the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am and BMW Championship; he contended in -- and very well could have won -- two majors; he played on the Ryder Cup team; and he rose into the top-15 in the World Golf Rankings.
But for as much length as he has off the tee -- and he's never averaged less than 308.3 yards per drive in three full PGA Tour seasons and parts of two more -- he's struggled with some of his shots with the shorter clubs, ones that he often has because of his power. On his approaches from 50-125 yards over the past three years his average proximity to the hole is as followings (Tour rank in parentheses).
This year -- after some hard work with Butch Harmon -- he has seen a drastic improvement in that area, slicing off nearly six-feet from last year with an average proximity to the cup of 14-feet, nine inches, which ranks 11th on Tour. If you think that's an insignificant number, consider that over the last nine year that would rank as the best average in all but three seasons (Those years the averages were: 14'2", 14'3" and 14'2"). Also consider that the percentage of putts made at 15-feet is quite a bit higher than at 20-feet. For example, over the last nine seasons the PGA Tour leader in the category would make a putt in the 15-20 foot range 30.6 per cent of the time. Conversely putts from 20-25 feet were led 23.58 per cent of the time.
Working the ball right to left at Augusta? Overrated. In three appearances in the Masters, 2010 PGA Champion and world number one Martin Kaymer has never played the weekend. In fact, he's been cut more often at Augusta (three) than he has in the other three majors combined (twice). As we are now on the fast-track towards that familiar trip down Magnolia Lane, many pundits have theorized that Kaymer won't be a factor since his natural shot shape is from left to right, rather than the preferred right-to-left. While I won't try to argue that the ability to work the ball that way is not advantageous at times -- the tee-shot at the 13th for example -- I think it would certainly be more accurate to say the ability to work the ball both ways is important. Looking at the back nine -- where Augusta's famous roars were born -- at least three of the key holes -- the 11th, 15th and 18th -- would promote a left-to-right ball flight. When you consider that Ben Hogan and Jack Nicklaus -- two of the greatest players of all time -- have eight Masters titles between them and were far more likely to play their ball with a gentle, controlled fade, it also hurts that argument a bit.
What to do with the WGCs? They are called the World Golf Championships, despite the obvious fact that majority of the tournaments -- 75 per cent on a current annual basis, and 76.5 per cent all time -- take place on American soil. There was a time when the tournament that has now become the WGC-Cadillac Championship was played pretty consistently in Europe before landing at Doral. Either way, given the international flavour you're bound to find on any given leaderboard and as the game goes down a path towards the 2016 Olympics, they needn't be so landlocked in the U.S. Here are some ideas to change that.
1. Move the match play around. When you consider the number of venues that have hosted either the Ryder Cup, President's Cup, Walker Cup, Solheim Cup etc. there are so many courses suited to the risk/reward nature of match-play golf. Add in the conventional wisdom that the players don't like the Dove Mountain course that has hosted the event the last three years and it sounds like a no brainer.
2. Make the RBC Canadian Open a WGC event. This isn't homerism at it's finest, but rather a tip of the cap to the third oldest tournament on the PGA Tour and fourth oldest in the world behind only the British and U.S. Opens (and South African Open in the case of globally). On top of that, it looks as though Golf Canada is committed to the idea of either moving the tournament around or at least getting a rotation of courses. Some of these courses -- including this year's event at Shaughnessy G&CC in Vancouver -- are major championship-calibre courses.
3. Schedule a WGC event either just before or just after the Ryder Cup or President's Cup and in a similar location. This seems simple enough and means that tournament's would be moved out of the U.S. in only two of four years.
The best never: to win on PGA Tour. It should be noted that two of the participants on this list have won on the European Tour. Still, if the question is: who are the best never to have won on the PGA Tour I think it's a fair list.
1. Rickie Fowler. Reason he's poised to win: In 42 starts on the PGA Tour, he has three seconds and one third place finish to go with 11 top-10s and 16 top-25s.
2. Charl Schwartzel. Reason he's poised to win: He has seven professional wins and in the top-20 in three of the four majors last year.
3. Robert Karlsson. Reason he's poised to win: He has 11 European Tour titles and last year finished at least T43 in all four majors. In 2008, he posted top-10s in three of the four majors and was still T20 in the other.
4. Kevin Na. Reason he's poised to win: Has posted 15 top-10s in the last three seasons and won on the Asian Tour when he was just 19.
5. Steve Marino. Reason he's posited to win: Three runner-up finishes in his career, and nearly as many top-10s this year (two) as all of last year (three) in a quarter of the tournaments.
But for as much length as he has off the tee -- and he's never averaged less than 308.3 yards per drive in three full PGA Tour seasons and parts of two more -- he's struggled with some of his shots with the shorter clubs, ones that he often has because of his power. On his approaches from 50-125 yards over the past three years his average proximity to the hole is as followings (Tour rank in parentheses).
2010 - 20-feet, four inches (168)
2009 - 20-feet, two inches (157)
2008 - 19-feet, five inches (145)
This year -- after some hard work with Butch Harmon -- he has seen a drastic improvement in that area, slicing off nearly six-feet from last year with an average proximity to the cup of 14-feet, nine inches, which ranks 11th on Tour. If you think that's an insignificant number, consider that over the last nine year that would rank as the best average in all but three seasons (Those years the averages were: 14'2", 14'3" and 14'2"). Also consider that the percentage of putts made at 15-feet is quite a bit higher than at 20-feet. For example, over the last nine seasons the PGA Tour leader in the category would make a putt in the 15-20 foot range 30.6 per cent of the time. Conversely putts from 20-25 feet were led 23.58 per cent of the time.
Working the ball right to left at Augusta? Overrated. In three appearances in the Masters, 2010 PGA Champion and world number one Martin Kaymer has never played the weekend. In fact, he's been cut more often at Augusta (three) than he has in the other three majors combined (twice). As we are now on the fast-track towards that familiar trip down Magnolia Lane, many pundits have theorized that Kaymer won't be a factor since his natural shot shape is from left to right, rather than the preferred right-to-left. While I won't try to argue that the ability to work the ball that way is not advantageous at times -- the tee-shot at the 13th for example -- I think it would certainly be more accurate to say the ability to work the ball both ways is important. Looking at the back nine -- where Augusta's famous roars were born -- at least three of the key holes -- the 11th, 15th and 18th -- would promote a left-to-right ball flight. When you consider that Ben Hogan and Jack Nicklaus -- two of the greatest players of all time -- have eight Masters titles between them and were far more likely to play their ball with a gentle, controlled fade, it also hurts that argument a bit.
What to do with the WGCs? They are called the World Golf Championships, despite the obvious fact that majority of the tournaments -- 75 per cent on a current annual basis, and 76.5 per cent all time -- take place on American soil. There was a time when the tournament that has now become the WGC-Cadillac Championship was played pretty consistently in Europe before landing at Doral. Either way, given the international flavour you're bound to find on any given leaderboard and as the game goes down a path towards the 2016 Olympics, they needn't be so landlocked in the U.S. Here are some ideas to change that.
1. Move the match play around. When you consider the number of venues that have hosted either the Ryder Cup, President's Cup, Walker Cup, Solheim Cup etc. there are so many courses suited to the risk/reward nature of match-play golf. Add in the conventional wisdom that the players don't like the Dove Mountain course that has hosted the event the last three years and it sounds like a no brainer.
2. Make the RBC Canadian Open a WGC event. This isn't homerism at it's finest, but rather a tip of the cap to the third oldest tournament on the PGA Tour and fourth oldest in the world behind only the British and U.S. Opens (and South African Open in the case of globally). On top of that, it looks as though Golf Canada is committed to the idea of either moving the tournament around or at least getting a rotation of courses. Some of these courses -- including this year's event at Shaughnessy G&CC in Vancouver -- are major championship-calibre courses.
3. Schedule a WGC event either just before or just after the Ryder Cup or President's Cup and in a similar location. This seems simple enough and means that tournament's would be moved out of the U.S. in only two of four years.
The best never: to win on PGA Tour. It should be noted that two of the participants on this list have won on the European Tour. Still, if the question is: who are the best never to have won on the PGA Tour I think it's a fair list.
1. Rickie Fowler. Reason he's poised to win: In 42 starts on the PGA Tour, he has three seconds and one third place finish to go with 11 top-10s and 16 top-25s.
2. Charl Schwartzel. Reason he's poised to win: He has seven professional wins and in the top-20 in three of the four majors last year.
3. Robert Karlsson. Reason he's poised to win: He has 11 European Tour titles and last year finished at least T43 in all four majors. In 2008, he posted top-10s in three of the four majors and was still T20 in the other.
4. Kevin Na. Reason he's poised to win: Has posted 15 top-10s in the last three seasons and won on the Asian Tour when he was just 19.
5. Steve Marino. Reason he's posited to win: Three runner-up finishes in his career, and nearly as many top-10s this year (two) as all of last year (three) in a quarter of the tournaments.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Transitions Championship Preview and Picks
Course vitals
Yardage: 7,340
Par: 71
Designed by: Larry Packard (1967).
Bunkers: 75
Water Hazards: 9
Green speeds: 11-feet.
2010 difficulty rank: 12
Defending Champion: Jim Furyk
Course record: 62, Jeff Sluman (2004), Mark Calcavecchia, 2007.
Key Back nine holes
509-yard par five 14th: With three par-threes on the back nine -- all of them at least 200-yards -- it magnifies the importance of scoring on the par-fives. The 14th is the last real good scoring opportunity coming in, as 16-18 played more than a half stroke over par in total last year. Even the par three 15th -- which ranked as the sixth easiest hole last year -- played slightly over par.
475-yard par four 16th: The numbers from a year ago pretty much tell it all: 33 birdies, 302 pars, 78 bogeys, 25 double bogeys, five triple bogeys or worse. With water all the way down the right side, finding the fairway off the tee is of paramount importance.
Foursome Picks
Justin Rose, 33-1. It's been a solid but unspectacular early part of the year. The Englishman has posted the following results this year: T12, T13, T25, T9, T17, T42. In 20 stroke play rounds, he's posted just two above par. Has played well at Innisbrook in the past with a T13 last year, T14 in '08 and three more top-30 finishes in his three other appearances.
Geoff Ogilvy, 33-1. A very similar start to the year for Ogilvy with three top-25s, a T49 last week and cut at Pebble Beach. Still, he's only posted two rounds over par in 15 stroke play rounds. He was cut in 2005, but in four other starts here he's posted no worse than a T28 and has two top-10s.
Stephen Ames, 50-1. Yes, it was an opposite field event but Ames' T3 in Puerto Rico last week was his best result on Tour since a T6 at the Transitions last year. It was also his first top-five since winning the Children's Miracle Network Classic in the 2009 Fall Series. In seven appearances here he's never been cut and has posted a pair of top-10s and a top-20.
John Senden, 80-1. So he's been cut in half of the tournaments he's played this year. We'll put that out there first. But he's also posted two top-25s along the way and it's a very much a metaphor for how he's played at the Transitions. He's been cut twice to go with a T28 and a pair of T2s.
Longshot: Charlie Wi, 125-1. After frittering away a chance to win the BMW Championship during the PGA Tour playoffs last fall, Wi's best finish has been a T18. In that span he's only been cut twice -- unfortunately the last two times he's played -- but he's played well in four appearances here: T20, T4, T23, T43.
Yardage: 7,340
Par: 71
Designed by: Larry Packard (1967).
Bunkers: 75
Water Hazards: 9
Green speeds: 11-feet.
2010 difficulty rank: 12
Defending Champion: Jim Furyk
Course record: 62, Jeff Sluman (2004), Mark Calcavecchia, 2007.
Key Back nine holes
509-yard par five 14th: With three par-threes on the back nine -- all of them at least 200-yards -- it magnifies the importance of scoring on the par-fives. The 14th is the last real good scoring opportunity coming in, as 16-18 played more than a half stroke over par in total last year. Even the par three 15th -- which ranked as the sixth easiest hole last year -- played slightly over par.
475-yard par four 16th: The numbers from a year ago pretty much tell it all: 33 birdies, 302 pars, 78 bogeys, 25 double bogeys, five triple bogeys or worse. With water all the way down the right side, finding the fairway off the tee is of paramount importance.
Foursome Picks
Justin Rose, 33-1. It's been a solid but unspectacular early part of the year. The Englishman has posted the following results this year: T12, T13, T25, T9, T17, T42. In 20 stroke play rounds, he's posted just two above par. Has played well at Innisbrook in the past with a T13 last year, T14 in '08 and three more top-30 finishes in his three other appearances.
Geoff Ogilvy, 33-1. A very similar start to the year for Ogilvy with three top-25s, a T49 last week and cut at Pebble Beach. Still, he's only posted two rounds over par in 15 stroke play rounds. He was cut in 2005, but in four other starts here he's posted no worse than a T28 and has two top-10s.
Stephen Ames, 50-1. Yes, it was an opposite field event but Ames' T3 in Puerto Rico last week was his best result on Tour since a T6 at the Transitions last year. It was also his first top-five since winning the Children's Miracle Network Classic in the 2009 Fall Series. In seven appearances here he's never been cut and has posted a pair of top-10s and a top-20.
John Senden, 80-1. So he's been cut in half of the tournaments he's played this year. We'll put that out there first. But he's also posted two top-25s along the way and it's a very much a metaphor for how he's played at the Transitions. He's been cut twice to go with a T28 and a pair of T2s.
Longshot: Charlie Wi, 125-1. After frittering away a chance to win the BMW Championship during the PGA Tour playoffs last fall, Wi's best finish has been a T18. In that span he's only been cut twice -- unfortunately the last two times he's played -- but he's played well in four appearances here: T20, T4, T23, T43.
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Tournament Backspin: WGC-Cadillac Championship
APPARENTLY FORM DOES matter on the PGA Tour. After all, there has been no one more consistent this year -- not even you, Matt Kuchar -- than Nick Watney. Consider that in the last two years, spanning 31 tournaments he's shot in the 80's (four times) more often than he's been cut (just twice). The last time he was cut, by the way, was at The Memorial last June.
Since then, he's finished in the top-10 nine times and the top-20 13 times. Admittedly the majority of those have been this year, as he's opened the year with the following results: T6, T5, T6, T9, win. It's the third win of his career and first since the Buick Invitational more than two years ago. I already wrote on Friday that I thought he was a strong play for Augusta and nothing I saw over the weekend made me move off that point. In fact, I'm glad I got action on that when I did. Given the way he fell apart in the final round at the PGA Championship last year (one of those rounds in the 80s) and the way he finished his round yesterday (finding the water on the 18th hole, making a double bogey to fall out of the lead and the final group) you have to give him credit for having the resolve for getting things done.
Where it was won: Given how solid he played all day, it's hard to really single one area out. That said, a pair of long par putts -- 17-feet at the 13th and 24-feet from the fringe at the 15th -- probably loom as his two largest strokes of the tournament. He opened with birdies on the first two holes and -- despite a bogey at the fourth -- carried the momentum from there. Unlike his main adversary in Dustin Johnson (see below) Watney really had the flat stick working. He made 16 of 19 putts inside 15 feet, including all seven of his birdies and needed just 22 putts overall.
Where it was lost: It would be too easy to point Johnson's lone bogey of the round and only second of the weekend as the reason he didn't win the tournament, but it's not quite that simple. With his prodigious length off the tee, Johnson should beat up par fives, but was just one-under in his final round notching a birdie on his opening hole and missing birdie putts of 20-feet, 15-feet and just under seven-feet on the other three. He missed four other birdie bids from reasonable range -- 17-feet at 2 and 4, seven-feet at the seventh and just under 10-feet at the 18th, which can be excused since he knew he had no chance of winning. But even with all that in mind, this may be a good breakout for him in 2011, a topic will explore in more depth in the Friday Fourball.
Shots of the week
Stat of the week: For the week Watney played the par-fives at 11-under. On the weekend he was nine-under having birdied every par five on both days with the exception of recording an eagle at the first on Saturday.
How I did
WGC-Cadillac Championship
Nick Watney, win
Louis Oosthuizen, T18
Paul Casey, T18
Charl Schwartzel, T24
Bill Haas, T31
Jim Furyk, T49
Puerto Rico Open
Angel Cabrera, T7
John Merrick, T11
Brendon de Jonge, T14
Paul Stankowski, T55
Kris Blanks, Cut
Early look at next week:
-Innisbrook is one of the tougher tracks on the PGA Tour
-Who I like: KJ Choi, Geoff Ogilvy, Charles Howell III
Since then, he's finished in the top-10 nine times and the top-20 13 times. Admittedly the majority of those have been this year, as he's opened the year with the following results: T6, T5, T6, T9, win. It's the third win of his career and first since the Buick Invitational more than two years ago. I already wrote on Friday that I thought he was a strong play for Augusta and nothing I saw over the weekend made me move off that point. In fact, I'm glad I got action on that when I did. Given the way he fell apart in the final round at the PGA Championship last year (one of those rounds in the 80s) and the way he finished his round yesterday (finding the water on the 18th hole, making a double bogey to fall out of the lead and the final group) you have to give him credit for having the resolve for getting things done.
Where it was won: Given how solid he played all day, it's hard to really single one area out. That said, a pair of long par putts -- 17-feet at the 13th and 24-feet from the fringe at the 15th -- probably loom as his two largest strokes of the tournament. He opened with birdies on the first two holes and -- despite a bogey at the fourth -- carried the momentum from there. Unlike his main adversary in Dustin Johnson (see below) Watney really had the flat stick working. He made 16 of 19 putts inside 15 feet, including all seven of his birdies and needed just 22 putts overall.
Where it was lost: It would be too easy to point Johnson's lone bogey of the round and only second of the weekend as the reason he didn't win the tournament, but it's not quite that simple. With his prodigious length off the tee, Johnson should beat up par fives, but was just one-under in his final round notching a birdie on his opening hole and missing birdie putts of 20-feet, 15-feet and just under seven-feet on the other three. He missed four other birdie bids from reasonable range -- 17-feet at 2 and 4, seven-feet at the seventh and just under 10-feet at the 18th, which can be excused since he knew he had no chance of winning. But even with all that in mind, this may be a good breakout for him in 2011, a topic will explore in more depth in the Friday Fourball.
Shots of the week
Stat of the week: For the week Watney played the par-fives at 11-under. On the weekend he was nine-under having birdied every par five on both days with the exception of recording an eagle at the first on Saturday.
How I did
WGC-Cadillac Championship
Nick Watney, win
Louis Oosthuizen, T18
Paul Casey, T18
Charl Schwartzel, T24
Bill Haas, T31
Jim Furyk, T49
Puerto Rico Open
Angel Cabrera, T7
John Merrick, T11
Brendon de Jonge, T14
Paul Stankowski, T55
Kris Blanks, Cut
Early look at next week:
-Innisbrook is one of the tougher tracks on the PGA Tour
-Who I like: KJ Choi, Geoff Ogilvy, Charles Howell III
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Double dip: WGC-Cadillac Championship
PICKING A WINNER at any point is never an exact science. But given the inconsistency of how the course has played this week -- it played a bit easier in the first and third rounds with 42 and 41 players below par, while the second round yielded just 25 -- you first have to figure out where the winning score might fall. And given that volatility, it could be tough. But let's say it falls somewhere between -12 and -15. In that case, it would bring a lot of those players in the high single digits back into contention.
Hunter Mahan, 16-1. Has made the most birdies this week with 17, but has doubled his bogey total each day -- from one to two to four. If he can hit more greens in reg -- his numbers dropped from 83 per cent to 72 to 56 -- he seems to have a good feel for the greens.
Adam Scott, 22-1. Leading the field in driving accuracy and T3 in greens in reg. He needed 30 putts each of the first two days, but trimmed that to 26 in round three and if he putts like that, he could be right there.
Padraig Harrington, 40-1. Hard to imagine a three-time major champion flying more under the radar than the Irishman. He hasn't made a tonne of birdies -- but his numbers are solid all around, and he's carded only four bogeys.
Martin Kaymer, 100-1. Why not? He's the best player in the world and if the winning number is -12, there could be a 66 or 65 out there for him.
Hunter Mahan, 16-1. Has made the most birdies this week with 17, but has doubled his bogey total each day -- from one to two to four. If he can hit more greens in reg -- his numbers dropped from 83 per cent to 72 to 56 -- he seems to have a good feel for the greens.
Adam Scott, 22-1. Leading the field in driving accuracy and T3 in greens in reg. He needed 30 putts each of the first two days, but trimmed that to 26 in round three and if he putts like that, he could be right there.
Padraig Harrington, 40-1. Hard to imagine a three-time major champion flying more under the radar than the Irishman. He hasn't made a tonne of birdies -- but his numbers are solid all around, and he's carded only four bogeys.
Martin Kaymer, 100-1. Why not? He's the best player in the world and if the winning number is -12, there could be a 66 or 65 out there for him.
Friday, March 11, 2011
Friday Fourball: March 11
Phil Mickelson will never be world number one. It started last year at The Players. On the heels of a win at The Masters and a runner-up finish at Quail Hollow -- only succumbing to Rory McIlroy's 62 on Sunday -- Phil Mickelson and his chance to supplant Tiger Woods as world number one seemed to be a headline every week.
He never broke through however and has now slipped to number six in the world. There are a number of factors that could have contributed to this, most would just be speculation. But either way, with his psoriatic arthritic condition and being on the wrong side of 40, he will never make it to number one.
That's not to say he won't win again or won't win another major even -- certainly he's still capable of catching lightning in a bottle over four days if he drives and putts well, especially given his new Dave Stockton-inspired more aggressive putting style -- but the kind of prolonged effort he would need to climb back up the rankings just isn't there.
And it may ultimately be a statistical anomaly on his career resume. He's a certain Hall of Famer -- of that, there is no doubt. But you may see him start to decline in the coming years. Just look at his driving numbers: This year he's averaging 290.6 yards off the tee. From 2003 to last year he was between 306 yards and 295.7 yards off the tee on average. At best that's five less yards off the tee and at worst 16 less yards off the tee.
It may seem like a statistically insignificant number, but they don't tell the full story. That is, Mickelson seems to be swinging full tilt nearly every time he tees it up. It can't be a good sign to step on every single tee-shot and average less.
What's up with Camilo Villegas? Normally a quick starter at the beginning of the year, it has been anything but a quick start this year for Villegas. His opening round at the WGC-Cadillac Championship may ultimately be a microcosm for his year. He opened with birdies on four of his first holes to surge to a (very) early lead. He followed up with two bogeys, a triple and two more birdies to finish his round at one-under.
I've mentioned tihs time and again in this space. But in case you missed it, here's how he's started the year: DQ, cut, T44, W/D, T33, Cut. Quite the contrast to last year when he started: 3, T8, win, T16 plus a T19 and T9 on the European Tour.
Think about that for a second. His worst result in his first six starts last year was better than his best this year, and it wasn't even close. It was especially distressing when he flamed out last week as the defending champion at the Honda Classic, never even sniffing an even par rounds with a 79 and 78 in his only two rounds.
There could be a number of factors here. First there's the back injury that forced him to withdraw in Phoenix. Then there's his switch from Cobra to TaylorMade. And finally there's the fact that his caddy, Brett Waldman, is now playing on the NationwideTour, instead of toting his bag.
(Coincidentally Waldman got off to a great start in his first Nationwide event, shooting 68 in his first round but has failed to break par in five rounds since.)
I personally think all of these have played a small role, though I don't put much stock in the club switch. Ultimately, Villegas have proven to be a pretty streaky player. Consider that his three wins have all come during periods where he's been playing well. There's last year's win at the Honda and then his two wins during the 2008 playoffs which came during the following stretch: T4, cut, T3, win, win.
The bottom line is that Villegas is a talented player and will ultimately get things worked out. When that happens is an item for more debate.
Martin Kaymer might stay at number one for a while. If somebody -- Lee Westwood could mathematically do it this week -- doesn't knock Kaymer out of the top spot in the world rankings soon, it might be a long time before someone does. In four events so far he already has a win, lapping the field in Abu Dhabi by eight strokes and a runner-up at the WGC-Accenture Match Play event.
He seems like the perfect front runner. The same way Tiger used to seem more robot than human, he at least flashed some emotion (subtitle: anger) when he made a mistake. Kaymer doesn't do that. He just seems so flat-lined, regardless of what happens during a round.
Is Adam Scott switching a long putter a bad sign? He's still only 30 years old, but Adam Scott recently made the switch to the long putter. It's strange for somebody so young to make the change, especially given the fact that he's had a few signature wins, some even punctuated by a long putt.
There's also the fact that nobody has even won a major championship using the long blade but I would chalk that up to statistical anomaly more than anything and ultimately this may be a good move for Scott.
Looking at his recent putting stats, it may be a move of necessity.
His putting is probably not as bad this year as that number indicates considering the sample size but it is interesting to see the affect on his current PGA Tour scoring average -- 73.
He never broke through however and has now slipped to number six in the world. There are a number of factors that could have contributed to this, most would just be speculation. But either way, with his psoriatic arthritic condition and being on the wrong side of 40, he will never make it to number one.
That's not to say he won't win again or won't win another major even -- certainly he's still capable of catching lightning in a bottle over four days if he drives and putts well, especially given his new Dave Stockton-inspired more aggressive putting style -- but the kind of prolonged effort he would need to climb back up the rankings just isn't there.
And it may ultimately be a statistical anomaly on his career resume. He's a certain Hall of Famer -- of that, there is no doubt. But you may see him start to decline in the coming years. Just look at his driving numbers: This year he's averaging 290.6 yards off the tee. From 2003 to last year he was between 306 yards and 295.7 yards off the tee on average. At best that's five less yards off the tee and at worst 16 less yards off the tee.
It may seem like a statistically insignificant number, but they don't tell the full story. That is, Mickelson seems to be swinging full tilt nearly every time he tees it up. It can't be a good sign to step on every single tee-shot and average less.
What's up with Camilo Villegas? Normally a quick starter at the beginning of the year, it has been anything but a quick start this year for Villegas. His opening round at the WGC-Cadillac Championship may ultimately be a microcosm for his year. He opened with birdies on four of his first holes to surge to a (very) early lead. He followed up with two bogeys, a triple and two more birdies to finish his round at one-under.
I've mentioned tihs time and again in this space. But in case you missed it, here's how he's started the year: DQ, cut, T44, W/D, T33, Cut. Quite the contrast to last year when he started: 3, T8, win, T16 plus a T19 and T9 on the European Tour.
Think about that for a second. His worst result in his first six starts last year was better than his best this year, and it wasn't even close. It was especially distressing when he flamed out last week as the defending champion at the Honda Classic, never even sniffing an even par rounds with a 79 and 78 in his only two rounds.
There could be a number of factors here. First there's the back injury that forced him to withdraw in Phoenix. Then there's his switch from Cobra to TaylorMade. And finally there's the fact that his caddy, Brett Waldman, is now playing on the NationwideTour, instead of toting his bag.
(Coincidentally Waldman got off to a great start in his first Nationwide event, shooting 68 in his first round but has failed to break par in five rounds since.)
I personally think all of these have played a small role, though I don't put much stock in the club switch. Ultimately, Villegas have proven to be a pretty streaky player. Consider that his three wins have all come during periods where he's been playing well. There's last year's win at the Honda and then his two wins during the 2008 playoffs which came during the following stretch: T4, cut, T3, win, win.
The bottom line is that Villegas is a talented player and will ultimately get things worked out. When that happens is an item for more debate.
Martin Kaymer might stay at number one for a while. If somebody -- Lee Westwood could mathematically do it this week -- doesn't knock Kaymer out of the top spot in the world rankings soon, it might be a long time before someone does. In four events so far he already has a win, lapping the field in Abu Dhabi by eight strokes and a runner-up at the WGC-Accenture Match Play event.
He seems like the perfect front runner. The same way Tiger used to seem more robot than human, he at least flashed some emotion (subtitle: anger) when he made a mistake. Kaymer doesn't do that. He just seems so flat-lined, regardless of what happens during a round.
Is Adam Scott switching a long putter a bad sign? He's still only 30 years old, but Adam Scott recently made the switch to the long putter. It's strange for somebody so young to make the change, especially given the fact that he's had a few signature wins, some even punctuated by a long putt.
There's also the fact that nobody has even won a major championship using the long blade but I would chalk that up to statistical anomaly more than anything and ultimately this may be a good move for Scott.
Looking at his recent putting stats, it may be a move of necessity.
2002 putts per round: 29.36
2005 putts per round: 29.43
2008 putts per round: 29.73
2009 putts per round: 30.10
2010 putts per round: 30.07
2011 putts per round: 31.88
His putting is probably not as bad this year as that number indicates considering the sample size but it is interesting to see the affect on his current PGA Tour scoring average -- 73.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Futures Market: March 10
This is the beginning of new feature where we'll examine some of the available futures wagers out there highlight a few that could be profitable.
Matt Kuchar, 16-1 to win a major in 2011, 33-1 top-20 in all four majors, 125-1, top-10 in all four majors. I think taking Kuchar at 16-1 in any tournament would be an okay play, add in three additional ones -- even if they are the majors -- and it's only heightened. As for the other two plays, one of the best assets Kuchar has is his consistency. As a matter of fact, he wasn't that far off from achieving top-20 in all four last year by posting T25, T6, T27 and T10.
Nick Watney, 25-1 to win the Masters. In three appearances at the Masters, Watney has posted three top-20 finishes, including a solo seventh last year. While he may have fired a final round 81 that took him from the 54-hole lead at last year's PGA Championship into a T18, it could ultimately be a good learning experience for the 30-year old. After all there is some precedent for that. While not in the same year, Mike Weir went from a share of the 54-hole lead at the 1999 PGA Championship. After a final round 80, he had to settle for a T10.
Anthony Kim, 66-1 to win the U.S. Open. After wrist surgery last year, Kim has not gotten off to the start this year he was probably hoping for. But, for me, it's hard to ignore his scintillating 65 in the final round of last year's Masters that propelled him to a solo 3rd place finish. Simply put, he has major championship chops and he's performed well in the American national championship, never finishing worse than T26. He also has a win at Congressional, firing a final round 65 to win the AT&T National in 2008.
Steve Stricker, 50-1 to win the Masters. At Augusta National, you have to be able to do a lot of things well, but it seems like if you do a couple of things exceptionally -- your putting and wedge play -- you can compete. Stricker has long been known as a tremendous putter and wedge player, as evidenced this year by his ability to play nearly a third of a stroke under par when facing approach shots of 50-125 yards. He's been cut at the Masters five times, but whenever he does make the cut he finishes in the top-40 and twice in the top-10.
Y.E. Yang, 100-1 to win the Masters, 40-1 to win a major. How's this for stat: in five events this year, the '09 PGA Champion already has one more top-10 (three) than he had last year. It's pretty hard to believe he struggled the way he did last year, given how unflappable he was in yanking that title away from Tiger Woods as Hazeltine. He obviously has the type of game and demeanour to win a major title and he finished T8 at Augusta last year.
Bubba Watson, 50-1 to win the Masters. It's amazing how much difference a little confidence can make but in Watson's case, it's made all the difference. After a breakthrough victory last year he has: contended in a major, made the Ryder Cup team, won again and made a serious run during a big-field WGC event. He's only played the Masters twice but he's never missed the cut. A lot of holes at Augusta set up for a right to left shot and you can't help but think he can do some damage on those par fives.
Charl Schwartzel, 66-1 top-20 in all four majors. It might seem a little out there for a guy who has never seriously contended in a major, at least, until you look at his 2010 results in the majors: T30, T16, T14, T18. He's got a lot of game and at age 26 is poised for a good career. He already boasts seven career professional wins with with three in the last 15 months.
Matt Kuchar, 16-1 to win a major in 2011, 33-1 top-20 in all four majors, 125-1, top-10 in all four majors. I think taking Kuchar at 16-1 in any tournament would be an okay play, add in three additional ones -- even if they are the majors -- and it's only heightened. As for the other two plays, one of the best assets Kuchar has is his consistency. As a matter of fact, he wasn't that far off from achieving top-20 in all four last year by posting T25, T6, T27 and T10.
Nick Watney, 25-1 to win the Masters. In three appearances at the Masters, Watney has posted three top-20 finishes, including a solo seventh last year. While he may have fired a final round 81 that took him from the 54-hole lead at last year's PGA Championship into a T18, it could ultimately be a good learning experience for the 30-year old. After all there is some precedent for that. While not in the same year, Mike Weir went from a share of the 54-hole lead at the 1999 PGA Championship. After a final round 80, he had to settle for a T10.
Anthony Kim, 66-1 to win the U.S. Open. After wrist surgery last year, Kim has not gotten off to the start this year he was probably hoping for. But, for me, it's hard to ignore his scintillating 65 in the final round of last year's Masters that propelled him to a solo 3rd place finish. Simply put, he has major championship chops and he's performed well in the American national championship, never finishing worse than T26. He also has a win at Congressional, firing a final round 65 to win the AT&T National in 2008.
Steve Stricker, 50-1 to win the Masters. At Augusta National, you have to be able to do a lot of things well, but it seems like if you do a couple of things exceptionally -- your putting and wedge play -- you can compete. Stricker has long been known as a tremendous putter and wedge player, as evidenced this year by his ability to play nearly a third of a stroke under par when facing approach shots of 50-125 yards. He's been cut at the Masters five times, but whenever he does make the cut he finishes in the top-40 and twice in the top-10.
Y.E. Yang, 100-1 to win the Masters, 40-1 to win a major. How's this for stat: in five events this year, the '09 PGA Champion already has one more top-10 (three) than he had last year. It's pretty hard to believe he struggled the way he did last year, given how unflappable he was in yanking that title away from Tiger Woods as Hazeltine. He obviously has the type of game and demeanour to win a major title and he finished T8 at Augusta last year.
Bubba Watson, 50-1 to win the Masters. It's amazing how much difference a little confidence can make but in Watson's case, it's made all the difference. After a breakthrough victory last year he has: contended in a major, made the Ryder Cup team, won again and made a serious run during a big-field WGC event. He's only played the Masters twice but he's never missed the cut. A lot of holes at Augusta set up for a right to left shot and you can't help but think he can do some damage on those par fives.
Charl Schwartzel, 66-1 top-20 in all four majors. It might seem a little out there for a guy who has never seriously contended in a major, at least, until you look at his 2010 results in the majors: T30, T16, T14, T18. He's got a lot of game and at age 26 is poised for a good career. He already boasts seven career professional wins with with three in the last 15 months.
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
WGC Cadillac Championship Preview and Picks
Course vitals
Yardage: 7,266
Par: 72
Designed by: Dick Wilson (1961).
Bunkers: 110
Water Hazards: 11
Green speeds: 11.8-feet.
2010 difficulty rank: 34
Defending Champion: Ernie Els
Course record: Stephen Ames, 61
Key Back nine holes
603-yard par five 12th: It may not be the glorious eagle opportunity that some par-fives are, but it's certainly a coin flip birdie. Last year -- while playing 0.342 strokes below par -- there was just one eagle and 106 birdies. There was only 10 bogeys, one double and one triple.
467-yard par four 18th: The infamous Blue Monster actually ranked as the second hardest hole on the course last year. The real difficulty comes from the tee considering the wind is most often into tee or a crosswind, making it difficult to find the fairway. There was more than double the bogeys or worse (76) than birdies (36).
Foursome Picks
Full disclosure: I couldn't decide whether I liked Paul Casey or Nick Watney more this week, so I turned my foursome plus longshot into a six-pack.
Nick Watney, 22-1: You'd be hard pressed to find a player hotter this year than Watney, at least without having won a tournament. He's posted no worse than a T9 -- at the match play -- and is cumulative 34-under par in his three stroke play events so far. He's also played well here with a runner-up finish in 2009 and a T26 last year. He's had just one round over par -- an opening one-over 73 last year -- in his eight rounds.
Paul Casey, 25-1: Posted a T6 here last year and has had marginal success at Doral over the years with a T9 in '07 and a T8 in '03. Aside from a second round exit at the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship where he often plays well, he's been on form this year and picked up a win at the end of January at the Volvo Golf Champions in Bahrain.
Charl Schwartzel, 30-1: Was the runner-up to Ernie Els here last year after sharing the 54-hole lead with him and has been playing well early in 2011. He defended his title at the Joburg Open and hasn't posted a result worse than T17 -- his finish at the Match play.
Bill Haas, 40-1: Was a solid T6 here last year and has posted no finish worse than T33 this year, including three straight top-10s to start the season.
Jim Furyk, 55-1: Admittedly the 2010 Fed Ex Cup champion has not gotten off to a good start this year. But he has been solid at Doral over the years. In the four years it has been a WGC event, he's posted: T35, T2, 3, T37. Add in the non-WGC years and his record is even better with a win -- in 2000 -- another 2nd, a T8 and a T9. He got off to a pretty slow start last year as well -- granted not quite as bad as this year -- but it was once the Florida swing started that his season really kicked into gear, snapping a 32-month winless drought at the Transitions Championship.
Louis Oosthuizen, 100-1: On the negative side, he's played here three times and broken par just five times. On the plus side, three of those came last year when he posted a T20. He's also still buoyed by the confidence of his resounding victory at last year's open championship and already has a win this year at the Africa Open.
Puerto Rico Open Picks
Brendan de Jonge, 25-1: T3 here last year.
Angel Cabrera, 45-1: Two-time major champion. 'Nuff said.
John Merrick, 40-1: T68 last year after posting T6 and T13 in the first two years.
Kris Blanks, 66-1: Solo second last year.
Longshot: Paul Stankowski, 100-1. Improved each year he's played here -- from cut to T21 to T12.
Monday, March 7, 2011
Honda Classic Tournament Backspin
HE HASN'T ALWAYS been the most popular player on the PGA Tour, but given the way his last few years have gone you have to feel good for Rory Sabbatini getting back in the winner's circle. When viewed with the advantage of hindsight, his major transgressions don't really seem that bad. The first was in 2005 when he walked to the 18th hole before his playing partner -- Ben Crane -- finished playing. As he's won on Tour and gained notoriety, we hear more and more about how slow Crane plays and pundits are always railing on the need for faster play. And, well, his comments about Tiger Woods being "more beatable than ever" may have been slightly premature, but they certainly ring true now, don't they? Put it all aside and this is a guy who beat skin cancer and recently went through another trying time when his wife had complications giving birth to their third child. It's his sixth win on the PGA Tour which is not an insignificant number when you consider that it ties him with the likes of Stewart Cink, Sandy Lyle and Jose Maria Olazabal.
Where it was won: Sabbatini really had to grind all day on Sunday. His 31 putts were the most he carded all week, but it was still good enough to pick up the victory. He really took command -- fittingly in the middle of the infamous Bear Trap -- by rolling in a 16-foot birdie putt at the par-four 16th.
Shots of the week
Yeah, it's pure laziness this week with the top five shots as decided by the PGA Tour. Boom, baby.
Stat of the week: Though Sabbatini only finished T5 in the field with 15 birdies, it should come as no surprise that he limited his lost shots with no double bogeys or worse and near the bottom of the field with just six bogeys.
How I did:
-Gary Woodland, T6
-Robert Allenby, T21
-Fredrik Jacobsen, T29
-Jason Dufner, T51
-Camilo Villegas, Cut
Early look at next week
-Another two tournament week and we'll have picks for both
-Going to start a couple of new features this week. The Futures Market, a look at the futures wager board and the Friday Fourball, a quick-hit foursome of opinion.
-Who I like: Martin Kaymer, Charl Schwartzel, Nick Watney
Where it was won: Sabbatini really had to grind all day on Sunday. His 31 putts were the most he carded all week, but it was still good enough to pick up the victory. He really took command -- fittingly in the middle of the infamous Bear Trap -- by rolling in a 16-foot birdie putt at the par-four 16th.
Shots of the week
Yeah, it's pure laziness this week with the top five shots as decided by the PGA Tour. Boom, baby.
Stat of the week: Though Sabbatini only finished T5 in the field with 15 birdies, it should come as no surprise that he limited his lost shots with no double bogeys or worse and near the bottom of the field with just six bogeys.
How I did:
-Gary Woodland, T6
-Robert Allenby, T21
-Fredrik Jacobsen, T29
-Jason Dufner, T51
-Camilo Villegas, Cut
Early look at next week
-Another two tournament week and we'll have picks for both
-Going to start a couple of new features this week. The Futures Market, a look at the futures wager board and the Friday Fourball, a quick-hit foursome of opinion.
-Who I like: Martin Kaymer, Charl Schwartzel, Nick Watney
Saturday, March 5, 2011
Double Dip/Trunk Slammers: Honda Classic Edition
WITH RORY SABBATINI'S commanding five stroke lead heading into Sunday's final round, there's some pretty good value floating out there. The problem is there are only nine players under par in total, so for the most part somebody either has to go historically low or Sabbatini needs to get out to the same kind of start Dustin Johnson did at least year's U.S. Open. That is, six-over in the first four holes.
Gary Woodland, 20-1. It wouldn't be a true double dip if I didn't back somebody now that I was at the beginning of the tournament. More than that though, he's one of only three players to be within six shots of the lead and he's play has been pretty solid all week. He's recorded just four bogeys and two double bogeys to go with 11 birdies in a tournament where the bogey or worse to birdie or better ratio is nearly 2 to 1 (1.897 to be exact) with 1,548 bogeys or worse compared with 816 birdies and eagles.
Charles Howell III, 40-1. It's been a while since his last victory -- more than four years, in fact, out-dueling Phil Mickelson in a playoff at the Northern Trust Open -- but his play has been showing signs of coming around recently. Going back to last year's Fall Series, he has posted the following results: T23, T6, T18, T9, T68, T13, T14, Cut, T66, T13. He's been steady this week too, with seven birdies, three bogeys and one triple bogey.
Jeff Overton, 80-1. Why not? He would have won last year if Stuart Appleby didn't shoot a 59 in the final round to beat him. Maybe he can turn some similar magic -- okay, maybe not a 59 -- to win his first PGA Tour event.
Trunk Slammers
Jamie Lovemark. Much heralded rookie has now made just one cut in -- a T58 at Torrey Pines -- six starts.
Anthony Kim. Standing on the tee at the sixth hole -- his 15th -- Kim was at one-over, well inside the cut line. A roller coaster that featured two double bogeys, a bogey and a birdie gave him the weekend off.
Angel Cabrera. It's been a rough couple of years for the former U.S. Open and Masters Champ. He has just two top-10s in his last 23 PGA Tour starts and has now missed the cut in back-to-back tournaments.
Vijay Singh. He was very much a vogue pick to win this tournament given his recent success -- two top-fives in the last three -- but he never got anything going this week, recording eight bogeys and a double bogey to go with just one birdie.
Adam Scott. After shooting a seven-over 77 on Thursday that included a quintuple bogey eight at the par-three 15th, Scott probably figured the worst was behind. He would be incorrect, of course, carding a 12-over 82 that featured six bogeys, a double bogey and a quadruple bogey. In total he played the four par-threes at 11 over par despite the fact that he registered a par on five of those holes.
Mike Weir. It truly is sad to see the current state of the '03 Masters Champ. He's now missed the cut in four of his five tournaments this year, all while playing on a medical exemption. Even his lone made cut, he finished T77, or in other words, dead last. In 270 holes of play now, he has registered just 40 birdies while also carding 50 bogeys, 14 doubles and two triples. Going back to last year's RBC Canadian Open -- his first tournament after injuring his elbow at the Open Championship -- he's been cut seven times, finished dead last and T55 in a tournament with no cut. And when you add up his totals from those four tournaments with five this year it looks like this: one eagle, 64 birdies, 85 bogeys, 16 doubles and two triples in 450 holes.
Trunk Slammer of the week: Camilo Villegas. The reigning champion -- who won by five shots over Anthony Kim last year -- continues his epically disasterous 2011. He's now played the weekend in just one of six tournaments with two missed cuts, a DQ, a WD and a first round departure at last week's WGC Accenture Match Play Championship. For the week he had more double bogeys (five) than birdies (three), a stark contrast to last year when he had no doubles and 23 birdies.
Gary Woodland, 20-1. It wouldn't be a true double dip if I didn't back somebody now that I was at the beginning of the tournament. More than that though, he's one of only three players to be within six shots of the lead and he's play has been pretty solid all week. He's recorded just four bogeys and two double bogeys to go with 11 birdies in a tournament where the bogey or worse to birdie or better ratio is nearly 2 to 1 (1.897 to be exact) with 1,548 bogeys or worse compared with 816 birdies and eagles.
Charles Howell III, 40-1. It's been a while since his last victory -- more than four years, in fact, out-dueling Phil Mickelson in a playoff at the Northern Trust Open -- but his play has been showing signs of coming around recently. Going back to last year's Fall Series, he has posted the following results: T23, T6, T18, T9, T68, T13, T14, Cut, T66, T13. He's been steady this week too, with seven birdies, three bogeys and one triple bogey.
Jeff Overton, 80-1. Why not? He would have won last year if Stuart Appleby didn't shoot a 59 in the final round to beat him. Maybe he can turn some similar magic -- okay, maybe not a 59 -- to win his first PGA Tour event.
Trunk Slammers
Jamie Lovemark. Much heralded rookie has now made just one cut in -- a T58 at Torrey Pines -- six starts.
Anthony Kim. Standing on the tee at the sixth hole -- his 15th -- Kim was at one-over, well inside the cut line. A roller coaster that featured two double bogeys, a bogey and a birdie gave him the weekend off.
Angel Cabrera. It's been a rough couple of years for the former U.S. Open and Masters Champ. He has just two top-10s in his last 23 PGA Tour starts and has now missed the cut in back-to-back tournaments.
Vijay Singh. He was very much a vogue pick to win this tournament given his recent success -- two top-fives in the last three -- but he never got anything going this week, recording eight bogeys and a double bogey to go with just one birdie.
Adam Scott. After shooting a seven-over 77 on Thursday that included a quintuple bogey eight at the par-three 15th, Scott probably figured the worst was behind. He would be incorrect, of course, carding a 12-over 82 that featured six bogeys, a double bogey and a quadruple bogey. In total he played the four par-threes at 11 over par despite the fact that he registered a par on five of those holes.
Mike Weir. It truly is sad to see the current state of the '03 Masters Champ. He's now missed the cut in four of his five tournaments this year, all while playing on a medical exemption. Even his lone made cut, he finished T77, or in other words, dead last. In 270 holes of play now, he has registered just 40 birdies while also carding 50 bogeys, 14 doubles and two triples. Going back to last year's RBC Canadian Open -- his first tournament after injuring his elbow at the Open Championship -- he's been cut seven times, finished dead last and T55 in a tournament with no cut. And when you add up his totals from those four tournaments with five this year it looks like this: one eagle, 64 birdies, 85 bogeys, 16 doubles and two triples in 450 holes.
Trunk Slammer of the week: Camilo Villegas. The reigning champion -- who won by five shots over Anthony Kim last year -- continues his epically disasterous 2011. He's now played the weekend in just one of six tournaments with two missed cuts, a DQ, a WD and a first round departure at last week's WGC Accenture Match Play Championship. For the week he had more double bogeys (five) than birdies (three), a stark contrast to last year when he had no doubles and 23 birdies.
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Honda Classic Preview and Picks
THE BUILD UP to the Honda Classic -- at least since it moved to the PGA National Champion course in 2007 -- is always about the famed Bear Trap. They always talk about how it's one of, if not the, most difficult finishing stretches on tour. You could argue the semantics about how a finishing stretch should include the actual final hole, but let's worry about that another day. The truth is, it's a pretty menacing three hole span. In the four years the tournament has been here, the Bear Trap has played an average of 0.767 strokes over par. For the average player that works out to be a difference of about three strokes over the course of four rounds. I mention this now because it's pretty well assumed that you have to play well on these three holes -- a theme you'll certainly see in my picks. And as a result, the holes you think would appear in the key back nine holes will not.
Course vitals
PGA National, Champion course
Yardage: 7,158
Par: 70
Designed by: Tom Fazio (1981), re-designed by Jack Nicklaus (2001).
Bunkers: 78
Water Hazards: 26
Green speeds: 10.6-feet.
2010 difficulty rank: 2 of 52
Course record: 64, Luke Donald (2008) and Greg Chalmers (2009).
Defending Champion: Camilo Villegas
Foursome Picks
Robert Allenby, 33-1. He missed the cut here last year, but in the first three years for the event to be played at PGA National he's post a pair of T5s and a T4. Take a first round defeat last week out of the equation and his game seems to be rounding into form, posting a T4 at Riviera after missing the cut twice and then finished T63 in Phoenix.
Fredrik Jaconsen, 60-1. In two appearances at PGA national, Jacobsen has posted two top-10s (a T5 and a T6). He's also even par through eight rounds playing the Bear Trap.
Camilo Villegas, 66-1. He really hasn't started 2011 the way he likely would have hoped (we'll have more on that tomorrow) but it's hard to argue with success. Of course he won here last year, but he also lost in a playoff in 2007. He may have missed the cut in '09, but he's carded eight rounds in the 60s in his 14 tournament rounds here. He's a local resident -- living just 10 miles away -- and he is also even par for his career playing the Bear Trap.
Jason Dufner, 80-1. He may still wish he was able to close on his first career PGA Tour playoff when he lost to Mark Wilson in a playoff at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Still his play this year has been solid, although not spectacular. In three appearances here, he's posted a T40, T9 and T13, and is just two-over par on the Bear Trap.
Longshot: Gary Woodland, 125-1. Prior to this year he had one top-25 finish in 26 starts on the PGA Tour. He already has two top-10s this season, including his runner-up finish at the Bob Hope Classic. He made the cut here last year, but was a victim of the MDF rule. But in the three rounds he played, he was even par on the Bear Trap.
Course vitals
PGA National, Champion course
Yardage: 7,158
Par: 70
Designed by: Tom Fazio (1981), re-designed by Jack Nicklaus (2001).
Bunkers: 78
Water Hazards: 26
Green speeds: 10.6-feet.
2010 difficulty rank: 2 of 52
Course record: 64, Luke Donald (2008) and Greg Chalmers (2009).
Defending Champion: Camilo Villegas
Foursome Picks
Robert Allenby, 33-1. He missed the cut here last year, but in the first three years for the event to be played at PGA National he's post a pair of T5s and a T4. Take a first round defeat last week out of the equation and his game seems to be rounding into form, posting a T4 at Riviera after missing the cut twice and then finished T63 in Phoenix.
Fredrik Jaconsen, 60-1. In two appearances at PGA national, Jacobsen has posted two top-10s (a T5 and a T6). He's also even par through eight rounds playing the Bear Trap.
Camilo Villegas, 66-1. He really hasn't started 2011 the way he likely would have hoped (we'll have more on that tomorrow) but it's hard to argue with success. Of course he won here last year, but he also lost in a playoff in 2007. He may have missed the cut in '09, but he's carded eight rounds in the 60s in his 14 tournament rounds here. He's a local resident -- living just 10 miles away -- and he is also even par for his career playing the Bear Trap.
Jason Dufner, 80-1. He may still wish he was able to close on his first career PGA Tour playoff when he lost to Mark Wilson in a playoff at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Still his play this year has been solid, although not spectacular. In three appearances here, he's posted a T40, T9 and T13, and is just two-over par on the Bear Trap.
Longshot: Gary Woodland, 125-1. Prior to this year he had one top-25 finish in 26 starts on the PGA Tour. He already has two top-10s this season, including his runner-up finish at the Bob Hope Classic. He made the cut here last year, but was a victim of the MDF rule. But in the three rounds he played, he was even par on the Bear Trap.
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