Honda Classic Preview and Picks

THE BUILD UP to the Honda Classic -- at least since it moved to the PGA National Champion course in 2007 -- is always about the famed Bear Trap. They always talk about how it's one of, if not the, most difficult finishing stretches on tour. You could argue the semantics about how a finishing stretch should include the actual final hole, but let's worry about that another day. The truth is, it's a pretty menacing three hole span. In the four years the tournament has been here, the Bear Trap has played an average of 0.767 strokes over par. For the average player that works out to be a difference of about three strokes over the course of four rounds. I mention this now because it's pretty well assumed that you have to play well on these three holes -- a theme you'll certainly see in my picks. And as a result, the holes you think would appear in the key back nine holes will not.

Course vitals
PGA National, Champion course
Yardage: 7,158
Par: 70
Designed by: Tom Fazio (1981), re-designed by Jack Nicklaus (2001).
Bunkers: 78
Water Hazards: 26
Green speeds: 10.6-feet.
2010 difficulty rank: 2 of 52
Course record: 64, Luke Donald (2008) and Greg Chalmers (2009).
Defending Champion: Camilo Villegas

Foursome Picks

Robert Allenby, 33-1. He missed the cut here last year, but in the first three years for the event to be played at PGA National he's post a pair of T5s and a T4. Take a first round defeat last week out of the equation and his game seems to be rounding into form, posting a T4 at Riviera after missing the cut twice and then finished T63 in Phoenix.

Fredrik Jaconsen, 60-1. In two appearances at PGA national, Jacobsen has posted two top-10s (a T5 and a T6). He's also even par through eight rounds playing the Bear Trap.

Camilo Villegas, 66-1. He really hasn't started 2011 the way he likely would have hoped (we'll have more on that tomorrow) but it's hard to argue with success. Of course he won here last year, but he also lost in a playoff in 2007. He may have missed the cut in '09, but he's carded eight rounds in the 60s in his 14 tournament rounds here. He's a local resident -- living just 10 miles away -- and he is also even par for his career playing the Bear Trap.

Jason Dufner, 80-1. He may still wish he was able to close on his first career PGA Tour playoff when he lost to Mark Wilson in a playoff at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Still his play this year has been solid, although not spectacular. In three appearances here, he's posted a T40, T9 and T13, and is just two-over par on the Bear Trap.

Longshot: Gary Woodland, 125-1. Prior to this year he had one top-25 finish in 26 starts on the PGA Tour. He already has two top-10s this season, including his runner-up finish at the Bob Hope Classic. He made the cut here last year, but was a victim of the MDF rule. But in the three rounds he played, he was even par on the Bear Trap.