Wednesday, September 7, 2011

PGA Tour Player of the Year

WITH A NICE BREAK for the players before the third leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs (or to avoid NFL opening weekend) the PGA Tour is dark this week for the first time in 2011. What better time than now to look back at the past eight months and assess who the current front runners for Player of the Year are.

First, the criteria.

Consistency. As far as naming a player of the year, I mean opinion it's imperative to very few peaks and valleys along the way. (He wouldn't be a contender for this, but for an example of what I mean look at Tommy Gainey -- 15/29 cuts made, 4 top 5s, 6 tops 10s, 9 top 25s.)

Wins. This is pretty self explanatory. It's hard to be a threat to be player of the year if you didn't win at least once.

Contended in majors. This could be a major X-factor in the entire debate. If someone won a major did they have a better year than someone who was a factor in several. Tough question to answer.

1. Webb Simpson. He obviously has the wins part down with two in the last three tournaments, but easily could have had a third if not for a penalty he called on himself during the final round of the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. (Assuming everything else was equal and he did win in New Orleans he would currently lead the money list by almost $800K over 2nd place Donald and more than $1-million over 3rd place Watney.) As far as consistency goes, he's made the cut in 19 of 22 events and finished in the top 25 17 times. He leads the Tour in rounds in the 60s (49), par five performance (a combined -129 on par fives) and is third in scoring average (69.30). It's somewhat incredible when you look at some of his other numbers. Based on the Tour's core statistics -- driving distance, fairways, greens in regulation, putting, sand saves -- his best ranking is 17th in GIR. But even so, he's first in the all around ranking. The only real flaw on his season resume is his lack of contention in majors, but he made the cut in two of the three he played (US, British) and posted respectable finishes with a T14 and a T16. From June onward, other than a missed cut at the PGA Championship, his worst finish is that T16 at the British. At the end of last year, he was ranked 209th in the world; he's now ranked 14th.

2. Luke Donald. The current world number one was not able to win his first major championship this year, but his consistency is unrivaled. In 16 events, he missed only two cuts, has 6 top 5s, 11 top 10s and 13 top 25s (His two top25s that were not top10s were T18 and T17s). His only PGA Tour win this season was a downright dominant performance at the WGC - Accenture Match Play Championship, where he never even had to play the 18th hole and only playing the 17th once. He never trailed in any of his six matches and if you added up all the holes where there was a winner, he would be ahead 41-15. He was a factor in two of the four majors with a T4 at the Masters -- where a double bogey at the par-three 12th really sunk his chances -- and a T8 at the PGA Championship.

3. Charl Schwartzel. Has solid representation across all three categories. Of course, he won the Masters in thrilling fashion, closing his final round with four straight birdies, but he was also one of only 11 players to make the cut in all four majors. If that's not enough, he actually had the low aggregate in those events, finishing a combined four-under par -- which was 10 shots better than his next closest pursuers, Steve Stricker and Sergio Garcia -- and none of his results were worse than a T16. If there is a blemish on his candidacy it's that his victory at Augusta was his only win and he only has three top 10s. That number can be a little misleading though, considering he's been in the top25 in 10 of 14 starts and hasn't missed a cut. He also only has two results outside of the top 30.

4. Keegan Bradley. Seemingly became the poster boy for the new era of golf with his thrilling victory at the PGA Championship. Both of his wins -- the PGA Championship and the HP Byron Nelson Championship -- came in sudden death playoffs and while his two victories are certainly impressive -- he is just the third player to win a major championship in his first appearance -- he doesn't quite have the same consistency that his counterparts do. In addition to his wins, he had two other top 10s and six more top 25s.

5. Nick Watney. With as good of a season as he had, it's hard to imagine that it could have been even better. The former Fresno State Bulldog opened the year with five straight top-10s -- including a win the at the WGC - Cadillac Championship -- and went into the Masters as one of the favorites, having turned in no result worse than a T13. He finished a disappointing 46th that week, by far his worst result at Augusta National in four appearances. It didn't put a damper on his season though, as he ended up with two wins (adding the AT&T National in July), 9 top 10s and 14 top 25s in 16/19 made cuts. On the year, he's fourth in scoring average, eighth in strokes gained putting and third on the money list. While he wasn't necessarily at his best in the majors, he did end up with a T10 at the PGA Championship. Bonus marks for finish T4 at the Players, the PGA Tour's marquee non-major.

Others that could get into the mix with a strong finish to the playoffs.

Adam Scott. Won the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational and posted strong major results (T2, Cut, T25, 7).

Dustin Johnson. Won the Barclays, 5 of 6 top10s were top5s and also solid in the majors (T38, T23, T2, Cut.

Steve Stricker. Two wins (Memorial and John Deere Classic), made all 17 cuts, 14/17 top 25, no results worse than T42, was steady in majors (T11, T19, T12, T12).

Gary Woodland. One win, one playoff loss, 18/22 cuts made, 12 top25s. Was at least Top 30 in all four majors (T24, T23, T30, T12).

K.J. Choi. Won The Players and was a threat in the Masters, finishing T8. Had 6 top 10s and 8 top 25s.

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