Thursday, January 13, 2011

Sony Open Preview and Picks

The Course
Waialae Country Club, Honolulu

Vitals
Yardage: 7,044
Par: 70
Designed by: Seth Raynor, 1927
Bunkers: 78
Water Hazards: 4
Green speeds: 11 on Stimpmeter
2010 Difficulty rank: 21 out of 42
Course record: 61, David Toms (2006)
Defending Champion: Ryan Palmer, 15-under 265.

Key Back Nine holes

13th hole, 477-yard par four - A year ago it played as the second hardest hole on the course with a stroke average of 4.24. It also had the third furthest proximity to the hole on approach shots of all holes on Tour, with an average of 49-feet, four inches.

18th hole, 551-yard par five - The closing hole was the toughest fairway to hit on Tour through all of last year, with just a little over 20 per cent of players finding the short grass. That didn't really seem to matter though, as it was the second easiest hole on the course playing to a stroke average of 4.44.

Foursome Picks

Adam Scott -- 25-1. In 2007, there were -- statistically speaking -- only two players in the world better than Scott: Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson. He's struggled a bit since then -- even falling outside the top 50 at one point -- but 2010 seems to have been a turning point for him. In the year he turned 30, Scott won twice -- first at the Valero Texas Open in May and then again on the European Tour at the Barclays Singapore Open in November -- and ended the year back inside the world's top-25 players. But perhaps more importantly than those two peaks in performance he began to show more consistency and in his last ten tournaments he produced one win, four top-fives and seven top-10s, with no finish being lower than a tie for 39th. He's also had success at Waialae in the past, posting three top-20 finishes the last three times he's played there, including a runner-up showing in 2009.

Justin Rose -- 30-1. In a way, it's hard to believe Rose has been on the professional golf scene since 1998 when he finished T4 as a 17-year old amateur at The Open Championship. Perhaps even more surprising is that it took him until last year to finally win on the PGA Tour. The big key for him seems to be how he controls his distance in his approach shots. In both of his wins last year -- at The Memorial and the AT&T National -- he hit exactly 73.61 per cent of greens in regulation. He finished T12 here last year.

Steve Marino -- 40-1. Marino suffered a bit of a dip last year, having two less top-fives (three), three less top-tens (10) and falling from 79th to 107th in the world rankings. He had back-to-back top-tens here in 2008 and 2009 (T4 in '08 and T7 in '09) and has the type of game that can eventually get him off the list of best players never to win on the PGA Tour. To get there, he needs to start getting it done in the final round where his scoring average is more than a full strike higher than his normal average score.

Michael Sim -- 80-1. Sim's 2010 campaign on the PGA Tour was a bit of an up-and-down one. He finished T2 in his second tournament at the Farmers Insurance Open and had two additional top-fives, with third place showings at the Turning Stone Resort Championship and the Wyndham Championship. But the 2009 Nationwide Tour player of the year struggled with injury problems as well, even having to withdraw from The Masters -- a tournament he got into by virtue of his place in the top-50 of the world golf rankings. He closed out 2010 with four top-25 finishes in his last seven events.

Longshot: Boo Weekley -- 100-1. Call this a gut pick. There are a lot of reasons not to like Weekley this week -- he missed the cut in half (five) of the tournaments he played in from July until the end of 2010 and he hasn't posted a win since the Verizon Heritage nearly three years ago -- but I still like him in this spot, especially at the price. His quality ball-striking -- having finished sixth in that category a year ago -- should fit in well on the tight fairways. He has a pair of top-20 finishes -- T9 in 2009 and T20 in 2007 -- at Waialae, but has also missed the cut twice in five starts.

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